🌞 Another crash?

Good morning investors! S&P 500 closed lower yesterday, snapping its 3-day winning streak.

Today we cover:

📊 Economy and News

U.S. business activity slowed for the second consecutive month in September, with S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index dropping to 53.6 from 54.6.

Manufacturing and services sectors both saw declines, with PMIs at 52.0 and 53.9, respectively.

Despite higher input costs driven by tariffs, businesses absorbed most increases without raising prices, signaling a stable inflation outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted tariffs may cause a temporary price rise but not sustained inflation.

New orders dipped, particularly in manufacturing, and employment softened as firms hesitated to fill vacancies amid cost-cutting. The data suggests consumer inflation will likely remain above the Fed’s 2% target in the near term.

Reminder: U.S. companies borrowed 2% less to finance equipment in August than a year earlier.

India is planning to go big on chips, with ten semiconductor projects are currently underway across six states, with a total investment of $18.2 billion

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 6,656.92 (-0.55%)
DJIA 46,292.78 (-0.19%)
NASDAQ 22,573.47 (-0.95%)
BRENT CRUDE 67.45 (+1.24%)
* Prices as of Sep 24th, 12:20 AM UTC

U.S. stocks could climb 20% higher, pushing the S&P 500 above 8,000 points, before a massive crash reminiscent of the 1929 market collapse, according to Universa Investments, a tail-risk hedge fund.

The S&P 500, up 13% this year and hitting record highs after recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, may be fueled further by expected monetary easing. However, Universa's founder, Mark Spitznagel, warns that high borrowing costs could soon trigger an economic downturn, leading to an 80% market plunge.

Universa, a $20 billion fund specializing in "black swan" event protection, has delivered over 100% average returns since 2007, notably profiting during the 2020 COVID-19 market chaos. Despite current bullishness, Spitznagel predicts a looming recession as the delayed effects of tight monetary policy take hold.

In another note, Fed Chief Powell said stock prices appear ‘fairly highly valued’.

Check this:Tether reportedly seeks lofty $500 billion valuation in capital raise. Elsewhere, Disney announced that it will be hiking the prices of many of its subscriptions by $2 to $3, starting Oct 21.

Amazon is closing all of its Fresh grocery stores in the U.K.

Eli Lilly to build $6.5 billion Texas manufacturing facility for obesity pill, other drugs.

💵 Personal Finance

President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax reform capped the state and local tax (SALT) deduction at $10,000, but his “big beautiful bill” temporarily raises it to $40,000 for 2025, with the benefits phasing out for incomes above $500,000.

The limit will revert to $10,000 in 2030. Only the 10% of filers who itemize deductions, typically higher earners, will benefit, with savings varying by state, per a Redfin report.

States with the Biggest SALT Savings

Redfin estimates median savings for itemizers in 2025, based on a 24% marginal tax rate applied to deductions above the $10,000 cap:

States with the Smallest SALT Savings

Savings estimates assume typical property values and state tax rates, excluding local income taxes, which vary. A Bipartisan Policy Center report notes high SALT deductions in Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, California, and Massachusetts, with Washington, D.C., and Maryland having the most claimants.

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