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Good morning investors! Some big names pulled indexes down yesterday as crypto also took a break.
Today we cover:
New fed chair pick
Apple and Visa beat
Software stocks in the bear market
📊 Economy and News
Trump to Announce New Fed Chair Pick Today
President Donald Trump announced Thursday that he will name his choice to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday morning.
The announcement follows the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady earlier this week, pausing rate cuts amid economic uncertainty. Trump has sharply criticized Powell, calling him a "moron" and arguing for significantly lower rates, claiming high rates cost the U.S. hundreds of billions in unnecessary interest expenses. He has pushed for the lowest rates globally, citing tariff revenues and reduced inflation threats.
Trump, who nominated Powell in 2017, has escalated his attacks over the past year, including a Justice Department probe into Powell related to Fed building renovations. Powell has defended the Fed's independence.
Potential candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, BlackRock's Rick Rieder, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Powell's chair term ends in May, though he could remain on the board until 2028.
Global hits:
Core inflation in Japan’s capital slows in January.
New Treasury license allows U.S. oil companies to expand in Venezuela.
Gold and auto slumps drive Canada’s trade deficit to $2.2 billion.
Trade deficit soared 94% in November and was higher than a year ago, despite tariff efforts.
Tariffs and deals: Trump to impose 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft over Gulfstream certification. Furthermore, Trump has signed order exploring tariffs on countries supplying Cuba with oil. Moreover, US, El Salvador sign trade agreement to boost critical minerals investment.
Reminder: Trump sues IRS and Treasury Department for $10 billion over tax return leak.
Gold fell back slightly, from a new high of $5,500. The hiny metal for a new Goldman Sachs’ year-end target of $5,400.
The Senate failed to pass a budget bill.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,969.01 (-0.13%)
DJIA 49,071.56 (-1.37%)
NASDAQ 23,685.12 (-0.72%)
BRENT CRUDE 70.11 (-1.03%)
* Prices as of Jan 30th, 12:20 AM UTC
Apple Reports Impressive Numbers
Apple reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that surpassed expectations, with revenue soaring 16% on an annual basis.
The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period.
Here is how Apple performed versus LSEG consensus estimates:
iPhone revenue: $85.27 billion vs. $78.65 billion estimated
Mac revenue: $8.39 billion vs. $8.95 billion estimated
iPad revenue: $8.60 billion vs. $8.13 billion estimated
Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue: $11.49 billion vs. $12.04 billion estimated
Services revenue: $30.01 billion vs. $30.07 billion estimated
Gross margin: 48.2% vs. 47.5% estimated
Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion.
The strong growth is a reversal from the holiday quarter last year, when Apple reported iPhone sales that declined slightly.
Apple’s sales of Mac laptops came up short of Wall Street expectations, and fell 7% on an annual basis.
In related news, Apple has acquired Q.ai, an Israeli startup that worked on AI for audio.
Software Stocks Plunge into Bear Market as AI Disruption Fears Intensify
Software stocks suffered sharp declines Thursday, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) dropping 5.4%—its worst day since last April—pushing the sector into bear-market territory, down 22% from its recent high. Month-to-date, IGV is off over 13%, on track for its worst month since October 2008.
Investors are increasingly worried that advancing AI tools and automation could erode demand for traditional software licenses, workflows, and subscription models, overshadowing strong earnings from major players.
ServiceNow (NOW) shares fell nearly 10% despite beating Q4 expectations and issuing solid guidance. Analysts noted the results were "good, but not good enough" amid heightened skepticism toward incumbent vendors.
Microsoft (MSFT) added to the pressure, sliding about 10%—its steepest drop since March 2020—after reporting slower cloud growth and softer margin guidance.
Other notable declines included SAP (down 15.2% on weaker cloud backlog growth), HubSpot (-11%), Atlassian (-11%), and Klaviyo (-13%).
The sell-off reflects broader concerns over rapid AI progress, such as Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.5 release, which excels at coding and enterprise tasks, raising questions about incumbents' ability to keep pace.
ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott pushed back, arguing AI needs workflow platforms like ServiceNow's to deliver consistent business outcomes and embed reliably into enterprise decisions.
Surprising: Amazon is in talks to invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI.
Visa beats: Visa delivered a solid earnings beat and raised guidance, fueled by robust global transaction volumes and accelerating high-margin cross-border digital payments. Despite a recent pullback in the stock, the company's core payments network continues to show strong underlying momentum.
Adjusted EPS: $3.17 (beat estimates of $3.14)
Revenue: $10.9 billion (beat estimates of $10.7 billion)
Year-over-year revenue growth: +15%
The results were supported by a resilient U.S. labor market and rising travel-related spending, which boosted transaction activity. Visa has now posted EPS beats for four straight quarters, underscoring effective cost control and margin expansion amid a favorable payments environment.
💵 Personal Finance
6 Key Facts to Build Confidence in the Stock Market
Investing in stocks can feel risky, especially after market dips, but historical S&P 500 data (including dividends) since 1928 offers reassuring patterns that calm nerves and highlight long-term strength.
Winning streaks outlast losing ones Positive return streaks are common and often longer (e.g., 9 years from 1991–1999, 8 years in the 1980s). The longest losing streak was just 4 years during the Great Depression; three-year declines are rare, with only one since 1941.
Upside gains exceed downside losses Big drops hurt (e.g., -37% in 2008, -44% in 1931), but the market has delivered even larger gains in recovery years, such as +53% in 1954, +43% in 1958, +37% in 1975, and +32% in 2013.
Bad years are usually followed by strong rebounds Of the 24 negative years since 1928, 16 (two-thirds) were followed by positive returns the next year—often with gains that more than offset the prior decline.
Double-digit gains are more frequent than modest or negative returns The S&P 500 posted +10% or better in 51 years, compared to just 24 down years and only 15 years of single-digit positive returns. Big upward moves dominate.
Nearly all 10-year periods are positive Across rolling 10-year spans since 1928, the S&P 500 delivered positive total returns in 88% of cases, underscoring the power of patience and long-term holding.
Full recoveries typically happen within 5 years Major crashes (e.g., 2000–2002 dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis) saw investors recoup losses—and often more—within 4–5 years, especially with continued contributions during downturns.
These patterns show the stock market's historical tendency to rise over time, rewarding those who stay invested through volatility.
💰 Be a Better Investor
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