- Morning Download
- Posts
- š Auto manufacturers suffer
š Auto manufacturers suffer
and improve your credit
Good morning investors! The market stays confused as we digest tariff-related news.
Today we cover:
Student loan defaults are coming
Auto stocks under pressure (and why GM is suffering the most)
Lululemon earnings
š Economy and News
Student Loan Defaults Surge as Borrowers Face Credit Hit
Student loan delinquencies are set to reach record highs, with over 9 million borrowers at risk of seeing their credit scores drop in early 2025. The latest report reveals that 15.6% of federal loansātotaling $250 billionāwere past due by the end of 2024.
The end of the pandemic-era payment pause in September 2023, followed by the expiration of a one-year grace period in late 2024, has left many borrowers struggling.
While some have reduced their balances, a significant number remain in financial limbo due to non-payment and administrative delays tied to legal battles over repayment plans.
Delinquencies have severe credit consequences, with subprime borrowers losing an average of 87 points and those with excellent credit seeing drops of up to 171 points. Meanwhile, proposed changes under the Trump administration, including dismantling the Department of Education and pausing income-driven repayment applications, could further complicate debt management.
Global hits:
Brazilās inflation rate rises to 5.3% ā a high of two years ā with additional monetary tightening expected.
U.S. liquidity likely to expand by $1.6tn in 2025, faster than last year.
Barclays switches preference to global fixed income over equities on tariff risks.
Also check: Trump auto tariffs seen adding roughly $6,250 to car costs, Bernstein says. In fact, Ferrari says it will raise prices by 10% on some models to offset auto tariffs. Also, Citi fears U.S. earnings per share could be hit by 5%-6% from rise in average tariffs.
US Recession? The IMFās baseline forecasts do not envision a U.S. recession; however, Deutsche Bank sees āmaterial riskā of U.S. entering recession.
Is a recession coming? |
Sponsored by Boxabl
Most houses take seven months to complete. BOXABL can put one out of the assembly line every four hours, including electrical, HVAC, and plumbing! Now, the company is raising funds and has made shares available to the public but the round is closing soon on StartEngine!
The company already has two home models and is developing a 20x30 and 20x40 home as part of their Phase 2 plan!
Currently, shares are being offered at $0.80 per share. With a $1,000 minimum investment, you can join 40,000 investors to help solve the housing crisis.
Time is running out, TOMORROW is the last day to invest in BOXABL on StartEngine.
Disclosure: This is a paid advertisement for Boxablās Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular here. This is a message from Boxabl
š Stocks
S&P 500 5,693.31 (-0.33%)
DJIA 42,299.70 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ 17,804.03 (-0.53%)
BRENT CRUDE 74.03 (-0.01%)
* Prices as of Mar 28th, 12:20 AM UTC
GM Takes a Hit as Trumpās Auto Tariffs Shake the Market
Shares of major automakers declined after former President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all vehicles not made in the United States, set to take effect on April 2.
The announcement sent General Motors (GM) stock tumbling more than 6% in early afternoon trading, significantly underperforming Ford and Stellantis, which fell over 3% and 1%, respectively. Tesla, meanwhile, gained as analysts see the electric carmaker as a relative beneficiary due to its U.S.-based production.
The market reaction highlights the varying exposure automakers have to foreign production. GMās reliance on Mexico and South Korea for manufacturing some of its small crossovers, including the Equinox and Blazer, has made it particularly vulnerable. Only 52% of GM vehicles sold in the U.S. during the first three quarters of 2024 were assembled domestically, compared to 78% for Ford and 57% for Stellantis.
Analysts at Wolfe Research and Bank of America warn that GMās 15% reliance on South Korean imports adds another layer of risk. With its stock already down 13% year to date, GM faces pressure to adjust its supply chain strategy. Investors had previously expressed concerns about tariffs in January, a worry GM did not sufficiently address in its earnings reportāleading to further declines.
As the April deadline approaches, automakers with significant foreign production may need to reassess their manufacturing strategies to mitigate the impact of Trumpās tariffs.
Lululemon earnings: Lululemonās stock fell more than 10% in extended trading after the company projected slower sales for the year amid economic concerns and tariffs.
The numbers:
EPS: $6.14 (vs. $5.85 expected)
Revenue: $3.61 billion (vs. $3.57 billion expected)
Fourth-quarter revenue rose from $3.21 billion in 2023, with full-year revenue reaching $10.59 billion, up from $9.62 billion. Excluding an extra 53rd week in fiscal 2024, revenue grew 8% year over year.
Looking ahead, Lululemon forecasts:
Q1 Revenue: $2.34Bā$2.36B (vs. $2.39B expected)
FY 2025 Revenue: $11.15Bā$11.30B (vs. $11.31B expected)
Q1 EPS: $2.53ā$2.58 (vs. $2.72 expected)
FY 2025 EPS: $14.95ā$15.15 (vs. $15.31 expected)
The company also expects gross margin to decline 0.6 percentage points due to rising costs and tariffs. Net income for Q4 rose to $748 million ($6.14 per share) from $669 million ($5.29 per share) in 2023. Comparable sales grew 3%, missing analysts' 5.1% estimate.
Shocking: ChatGPTās viral image-generation AI is āmeltingā OpenAIās GPUs. Elsewhere, Novo Nordisk says copycat compounders are hurting Wegovy sales, may take legal action.
šµ Personal Finance
How to improve your credit score
With student loan delinquencies hitting record highs and threatening credit scores in 2025, hereās how to fight back.
Prioritize On-Time Payments: Set up autopay to avoid missed deadlines, which can slash your score by 87-171 points.
Tackle Outstanding Balances: Pay above the minimum to lower debt and boost your credit utilization ratio.
Monitor Your Credit Report: Check free weekly reports and dispute errors from administrative delays.
Diversify Your Credit Mix: Add a secured credit card, keep balances low, and pay it off monthly.
Stay Informed on Policy Changes: Research repayment options as federal relief may shift under new policies.
Act now to protect your score from the growing default crisis. Also, you can check this debt payoff calculator to plan better.
š° Be a Better Investor
"Donāt tell me where your priorities are. Show me where you spend your money, and Iāll tell you what they are."
Resources:
What did you think of today's newsletter? |
š©š½āāļø Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.