Morning Market Download from Invincible Money

Personal finance + economics + markets

Staying on top of the markets, economics and the global issues that affect your money takes a lot of time and effort. We distill it down to a quick 5 minute read to help you make better money decisions.

EconomyWhether we're in a recession or not is still up for debate. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell by 1.2% in March, which is the lowest since Nov. 2020, which may indicate economic weakness could intensify.

Another data point is that recessions typically occur a year after the yield curve inverts. That happened 13 months ago. An inverted yield curve means that shorter-term government bonds offer a higher yield than longer-term. Typically, it's the other way around. An inverted curve means that investors are expecting falling long-term interest rates, which is an indicator of a recession. Every time the yield curve has inverted, a recession has followed.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the U.S. federal budget deficit rose to $1.3 trillion in the first half of 2023 - up $430 billion over the first half of 2022. That's up 13% while tax revenue is down 30%. Both those numbers are going in the wrong direction.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office is forecasting the national debt will grow faster than the economy, which makes growing our way out of this impossible. Printing more money is looking more likely to pay the increasing debt payments.

NewsIt's no surprise that more firms are using AI to increase their productivity - for better or worse. According to a LinkedIn survey of large companies, 70% said AI is helping them be faster and smarter and another 32% said that AI will play a larger role in the future.

According to a new Gallup survey, employee engagement fell for the first time in decades, from 36% to 34%, as a result of workers shifting priorities to their mental health and personal time, instead of just focusing on the the corporate ladder.

Speaking of which, according to the WSJ, more companies are now willing to give you time off, regardless of the reason, as they focus on employee retention during this labor crunch. Pre-pandemic 49% of employees felt their employers cared about their well-being. That number is now at 24%.

StocksBuzzFeed is shutting down its news division (they had a news division?).

Recently Tesla cut the prices of its cars and now they're raising them a bit as profits were hurt.

CryptoA16Z are the largest VC investors in crypto. They recently released their 2023 report on the State of Crypto. You can watch a great summary here.

Last week I wrote about the U.S. pushing crypto out of the country through their uncertain regulations. In this week's "All In Podcast," all 4 of the VCs agreed crypto in the U.S. is dead and moving abroad.

The Coinbase offshore exchange launches this week. Note that it's now been 30 days since Coinbase was served a Wells Notice, which is like a heads up a lawsuit may be coming. Paxos got theirs 2 months ago and still haven't been served.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) is proposing new rules to give U.S. regulators power to declare non-bank entities as systematically important. Remember, that was the same designation they used to shut down Silicon Valley Bank and Signature bank and bail out their depositors. These rules would give them the same power over firms like Coinbase or Circle.

Be a Better Investor

Get Smarter

The quote above illustrates how hard it is to "get in" and "get out" of the market at the right time, which is why so many professional investors advocate for DCA (dollar cost average) investing. Set up an automated buy every time you get paid, like an automatic contribution to your 401k.

Set it and forget it is not only the easiest, it's the most profitable.

Legal StuffNothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.