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Good morning investors! Today’s loaded issue covers a lot.
Fun fact: The three largest stocks now make up more than 15 percent of the S&P 500’s weight.
Today we cover:
Job openings drop
Tariffs may now cost the US govt
Major earnings
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📊 Economy and News
Job Openings Drop to Post-Pandemic Low, Signaling Labor Market Slowdown
Job openings in the U.S. fell to 7.18 million in July, the lowest since September 2024 and a level rarely seen since the Covid-19 pandemic.
This figure, down from expectations of 7.4 million, highlights growing concerns about a cooling labor market. Economists note this as a critical turning point, with the market showing signs of stagnation. Upcoming jobless claims and the jobs report will provide further insight into labor market trends.
Global hits:
Canadian business productivity slumps in second quarter as output falls.
Bank of England’s Taylor says UK economy nearing soft landing.
OPEC+ members are weighing whether to add more supply in October.
Rate cut? Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a “few more” good inflation prints would put rate cuts on the table, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem flagged the risk of waiting too long to ease.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,448.26 (+0.51%)
DJIA 45,271.23 (-0.054%)
NASDAQ 21,497.73 (+1.02%)
BRENT CRUDE 67.54 (-2.23%)
* Prices as of Sep 4th, 12:20 AM UTC
Trump Faces $200 Billion Tariff Refund Risk After Court Ruling
A federal appeals court ruled that President Donald Trump unlawfully used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on countries, including rates up to 50% on India and Brazil and 145% on China.
American businesses have paid over $210 billion for these tariffs, now deemed illegal. If the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, the U.S. Treasury may need to refund this amount.
Trump plans to appeal to the Supreme Court before the October 14 deadline set by the appeals court. If the court declines to hear the case or rules against him, businesses could see refunds, though the process may be complex. Importers might need to file individual claims or await an administrative refund process.
Refunding tariffs could increase government borrowing, potentially raising Treasury bond yields and borrowing costs. Economists warn this could also fuel inflation, especially alongside Trump’s push for lower interest rates.
The Supreme Court is likely to hear the case next term, with tariffs remaining in effect during the appeal.
Exciting: HSBC raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 index to 6,500 from 6,400 on Wednesday, marking its second upgrade in less than a month, on the back of stronger-than-expected second-quarter corporate earnings and a ’modest’ impact from tariffs.
HSBC’s new target represents a 1.3% upside to the benchmark index’s last close of 6,415.54.
Earnings:
Salesforce reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the latest quarter but issued disappointing guidance. Salesforce’s stock has been the worst performer in large-cap tech this year. The company announced the pending $8 billion Informatica acquisition in the quarter.
Figma surpassed revenue estimates for the second quarter in its first earnings report as a public company. The company also issued guidance for the third quarter and full year that beat expectations. Some investors have agreed to an extended lock-up expiration for 35% of their shares.
C3 AI reported disappointing fiscal first-quarter results. The company reported $70.3 million in revenue for the quarter, down from $87.2 million during the same period last year. The enterprise AI company also announced Stephen Ehikian as its new CEO, succeeding Thomas Siebel, who was diagnosed with an autoimmune disease.
American Eagle Outfitters forecast third-quarter comparable sales above expectations on with the stock surging 25%. Also, its CEO thanked the controversial Sydney Sweeney “Good Jeans” ad campaign for boosting brand awareness and profit. In addition, it expects tariff impacts to be $20 million in the third quarter and $40 million to 50 million in the fourth. It said price increases will be “ongoing” as one of its tools to mitigate tariffs.
Macy’s, the retailer many investors had left for dead a year ago, busted out a banger of a quarterly earnings report, sending its stock up more than 20%. The company’s earnings were broadly better than expected, with revenue coming in at $4.8 billion (versus analysts’ consensus of $4.7 billion). But it was a closely watched sales metric that got heads spinning on Wall Street: Macy’s sales at locations open at least a year rose 0.8%, the first positive quarter in three years.
Good to know: Meta’s Instagram launched an iPad app with Reels at the center, ending a long user wait and potentially boosting time spent. Elsewhere, a federal judge questioned the Justice Department’s move to drop an independent monitor for Boeing under a deferred prosecution agreement, after relatives of crash victims urged tougher oversight.
Disney to pay $10 million to settle FTC complaint over collection of children’s personal data on YouTube. Also, check this CNBC article for great insights on how the US is making it harder for TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung to produce chips in China
💵 Personal Finance
Roth conversion guardrails for 60–64
Today is a good day to map a 2025 Roth conversion plan that fills, but does not spill over, your current marginal bracket.
Conversions add to adjusted gross income and can push you into higher Medicare IRMAA tiers next year if you overshoot thresholds.
Use the IRS tax-bracket tables for 2025 and a calculator to preview the tax bill before moving cash.
If you itemize, remember that conversions do not qualify for deductions and the five-year clock applies per conversion tranche. Link the move to your retirement date and cash buffer so you are not forced to sell risk assets to pay the tax.
Today actions
Pull your last pay stub and project 2025 taxable income, then identify headroom in your current bracket.
Run the IRS Withholding Estimator to test a conversion amount that keeps you inside that bracket.
If this is you:
Near-retiree 60–64: Coordinate conversion size with expected Medicare start to avoid surprise IRMAA brackets.
Still working with RSUs: Time conversions in off-vesting months to keep income inside targets.
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.