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Good morning investors! Crypto moved back and stocks took a break as more data is awaited.
Fun fact: Roughly four out of five dollars of U.S. equity market value sit inside the S&P 500.
Today we cover:
Homebuilder sentiment falls
Jackson Hole
$4,000. That’s how much an ounce of gold is expected to cost in 2026. And since gold thrives in unstable markets, its rally appears far from over. Gold IRAs can be a good way to own physical gold while taking advantage of IRA tax breaks.
📊 Economy and News
U.S. Homebuilder Sentiment Hits Lowest Level Since Late 2022
U.S. homebuilder sentiment dropped to 32 in August, the lowest since December 2022, missing economists' expectations of 34.
Over a third of builders cut prices by 5% on average, and 66% offered incentives to attract buyers amid high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
Despite a slight uptick in buyer traffic, affordability challenges and regulatory hurdles persist. Mortgage rates eased to 6.58%, the lowest since October 2024, with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts next month.
July housing starts and permits data, due Tuesday, are expected to remain weak.
Global hits:
Argentina’s economy expected to grow 6.4% y/y in June.
Trump says Ukraine peace resolution could come as soon as today, saying U.S. can negotiate end to Ukraine crisis without ceasefire.
Brazil’s central bank director says inflation remains above target.
Air Canada flights to remain suspended as flight attendants continue strike, defying government’s back-to-work order.
Something about China: For the first time, China’s electric car industry has invested more in factories overseas than at home. Also, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the U.S. may be underestimating the complexity and seriousness of China’s progress in artificial intelligence. Moreover, he called the market a ‘bubble’.
Lastly, Tesla Optimus rival Unitree shines at the ‘World Humanoid Robot Games’ in China winning several awards.
Rate cut: Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady this year, despite markets expecting a September cut. So, what happens if Fed decides against it?
Sponsored by Pacaso
Big investors are buying this “unlisted” stock
When the founder who sold his last company to Zillow for $120M starts a new venture, people notice. That’s why the same VCs who backed Uber, Venmo, and eBay also invested in Pacaso.
Disrupting the real estate industry once again, Pacaso’s streamlined platform offers co-ownership of premier properties, revamping the $1.3T vacation home market.
And it works. By handing keys to 2,000+ happy homeowners, Pacaso has already made $110M+ in gross profits in their operating history.
Now, after 41% YoY gross profit growth last year alone, they recently reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,449.15 (-0.010%)
DJIA 44,911.82 (-0.076%)
NASDAQ 21,629.77 (+0.031%)
BRENT CRUDE 66.46 (+0.90%)
* Prices as of Aug 19th, 12:20 AM UTC
The Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: Shaping Markets in 2025
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, hosted annually by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is a key event where global central bankers, policymakers, and economists discuss critical economic issues. Set in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park, this gathering often signals major policy shifts, impacting markets worldwide.
Why It Matters in 2025
With the Fed Funds Rate at 5.25-5.50% (mid-2024), Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will be closely watched for clues on future rate decisions, which could sway stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
Market Impacts
Dovish Signals: Weaker U.S. dollar, rising gold and equities, falling bond yields.
Hawkish Signals: Stronger dollar, declining commodities, rising bond yields.
Neutral Stance: Choppy trading with sector rotations.
Commodities and Policy
Gold: Sensitive to real interest rates and dollar strength, often rallying during rate cuts.
Energy: Oil reacts to dollar movements, while natural gas is less policy-sensitive.
Seasonal Trends: Commodities like gold and energy often see amplified moves when policy aligns with seasonal demand.
Trading Strategies
Tactical Moves: Use options, spread trades, or smaller positions to manage volatility.
Technical Analysis: Monitor support/resistance and volume for policy-driven trends.
Risk Management: Prepare for multiple scenarios, maintain liquidity, and reduce leverage before announcements.
Palo Alto Networks topped Wall Street estimates and issued better-than-expected guidance for the first quarter and full year. The results come weeks after Palo Alto announced plans to buy Israeli identity security provider CyberArk for $25 billion, its heftiest deal ever. Palo Alto also said its founder and Chief Technology Officer Nir Zuk is retiring.
Exciting: TeraWulf shares rallied after Google hiked its stake in the bitcoin miner and data center company. Elsewhere, Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy was granted U.S. approval for the treatment of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) in adults with moderate to advanced liver fibrosis.
💵 Personal Finance
Tuesday Game Plan: Mid-month money check
Today is a fresh day to tighten August without stress. Do a quick 20-minute checkup that trims autopilot drift and protects cash through month-end. Start with your calendar, then your cash map, then one focused fix.
Step 1. Calendar check. Scan Tuesday’s schedule and add two five-minute blocks: one to peek at your checking balance trend and one to confirm any auto-drafts due this week. If a subscription renewed this month you no longer use, cancel it now using your bank’s bill pay portal or the provider’s account page.
Step 2. Cash map. Open your bank app and note three numbers: current checking, upcoming bill total through the 31st, and expected income through the 31st. If checking minus upcoming bills is under one week of expenses, move a small buffer from savings to avoid overdrafts. If it is over two weeks of expenses, transfer the excess into a high-yield savings account. A simple rule keeps you safe and earning interest.
Step 3. One focused fix. Pick the single biggest August leak and address it today. Examples: negotiate your cell bill chat-support discount, set a weekly grocery cap inside your card app, or schedule a “no-spend” day before the weekend. If you invest regularly, confirm your automatic contribution still runs before Friday.
Tips
• Beginner: Set a text alert for low balance at 1.5 times your daily spend.
• Advanced: Push an extra principal payment to the highest-rate debt today if you are on pace to finish the month with surplus cash.
• Tool: Try this free budget calculator to stress-test your August plan in five minutes.
💰 Be a Better Investor
“More money has been lost preparing for corrections than in the corrections themselves.”
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.