šŸ’£ The impact of war on the market

and banks are not profitable

Good morning investors! We donā€™t like to talk about war here but we cannot neglect what unfolded over the weekendĀ ā€“Ā Iranā€™s attack on IsraelĀ ā€“ that may come into play today.

Today we cover:

  • The impact of war on the market.

  • Stocks are down.

  • Tesla changes strategy.

šŸ“ŠĀ Economy and NewsĀ 

Howā€™s the war going to impact the market?

Iran warned Israel and the United States on Sunday of a "much larger response" if there is any retaliation for its mass drone and missile attack on Israeli territory on Saturday, as Israel said "the campaign is not over yet".

Hereā€™s what experts think could happen next:

  • ā€œIn terms of the market reaction, we started to see commodity prices moving higher on Friday.ā€ said Samy Chaar, Chief Economist, Lombard Odier.

  • I think oil will open higher.Ā Also signs that Iran wants to enact a soft blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a concern, as this means there are potential both supply chain disruptions and higher oil prices. We have entered a dangerous period ahead of the U.S. elections," said Tina Fordham, founder and strategist, Fordham Global Foresight.

  • ā€œFrom our perch, the more important news for markets last week was the trend re-acceleration in consumer price inflation and the implication for the path of future short term interest rates,ā€ said Nick Ferres, CIO, Vantage Point Asset Management.

  • "The key is whether Iran will consider this retaliation a measured and final response, unless Israel decides to escalate. In 2020, Iran considered its response to the U.S.ā€™s killing of General Soleimani a measured and equitable response. If it stays tit-for-tat instead of escalating, then we will likely see a sigh of relief across equities even if oil prices, gold, the dollar and bonds all embed a risk premium to reflect the conflict," said Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist, Annex Wealth Management.

In summary: Most experts expect an impact on oil and commodity prices, however, not on major stocks.

Global hits:

Worrisome: In February, the personal saving rate dropped to 3.6%, marking its lowest point in over a year. In the years leading up to 2022, it has consistently remained below the levels observed in the previous decade.

šŸ“ˆĀ Stocks

S&P 500Ā 5,123.41 (-1.44%)
DJIAĀ 37,983.24 (-1.24%)
NASDAQĀ 18,003.49 (-1.66%)
BRENT CRUDE 190.443 (+0.43%)
* Prices as of Apr 15th, 12:20 AM UTC

Stocks had a bad day

On Friday, stock markets experienced a sell-off due to concerns about inflation and geopolitical issues, which dampened investor confidence on Wall Street. The market was further affected by a widespread drop in the value of major bank stocks.

Week to date, the broad market index dropped 1.56%, and the 30-stock Dow fell 2.37%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is 0.45% lower for the week.

Banks arenā€™t bankable: JPMorgan Chase shares declined more than -6% after the banking giant posted its first-quarter results.

The bank said net interest income, a key measure of what it makes through lending activities, could be a little short of what Wall Street analysts are expecting in 2024.

CEO Jamie Dimon also warned about persistent inflationary pressures weighing on the economy.Ā 

Wells Fargo slipped -0.4% after reporting its latest quarterly figures.

Citigroup dropped -1.7% despite posting a revenue beat.

Tesla gets cheaper: Tesla has decided to slash the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package by 50% to $99 per month. This move contradicts earlier assurances from Musk, who had frequently stated to shareholders and customers that the price of FSD would only increase over time.

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šŸ”Ā Crypto

Bitcoin $65,700 (-0.04%)
Ethereum $3,144 (-0.08%)
Total market cap $2.39 (-.0.7%)
* Prices as of Apr 15th, 12:20 AM UTC

Cryptocurrencies are down

Bitcoin experienced an 8% decline late on Saturday evening following U.S. officials' confirmation of an imminent attack.

Over the weekend, digital coins were among the few risk assets being traded, and the drop was viewed as an initial response to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

However, by Sunday morning, Bitcoin had rebounded, trading above $64,000. Other coins, such as ether, also saw significant selling pressure, with some down by as much as 10%.

šŸ’µĀ Personal Finance

Why private student loans may not be suitable for you

Consider private loans only if you have already maxed out your federal aid. Most students can borrow up to $12,500 in an academic year, which may not be enough to fund their education.

Federal student loans are not only affordable but offer other benefits as well, including attractive forgiveness programs and the ability to pause interest. Sadly, private loans do not come with these features.

Failing to pay a private loan can be risky as it gives lenders the right to sue for recovery through wage garnishment and asset seizure. Also, itā€™s not only for the borrower but also for the cosigner, making private loans very risky.

Furthermore, you need to look at the interest rate. Consider going for a loan that comes with a fixed rate even if the variable rate looks more attractive as we are in a rising-rate environment and the rate may end up going higher than you expect. Most private lenders offer a rate between 4% and 15%, usually higher than the 5.5% charged by federal agencies.

Consider watching this video to know more about how student loans can impact lives:

How much to borrow?

This question can be hard to answer; however, most experts believe that you should not borrow more than your expected starting income after school.

šŸ’° Be a Better Investor

ā€œEven the intelligent investor is going to need considerable willpower to keep from following the crowd.ā€

Ben Graham

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Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.

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Disclosure: This is a paid advertisement for American Rebelā€™s Regulation A Offering. Please read the offering circular atĀ https://invest.americanrebel.com/Ā for additional information on the company and risk factors related to the offering.

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