šŸ± Inflation cools down

and Saudi US partnership reaps benefits

Good morning investors! The market continued its impressive run yesterday with major economic data supporting the movement. We’re finally in the green for major indexes.

Today we cover:

  • Inflation slows slightly

  • Household debt goes up

  • Palantir shines again

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šŸ“Š Economy and News 

Inflation Slows Slightly in April Amid Early Tariff Impact

U.S. inflation cooled in April, with CPI rising 0.2% monthly and 2.3% annually—its lowest since February 2021.

Core CPI matched expectations at 2.8% year-over-year.

Shelter prices (+0.3%) drove over half the CPI rise. Energy prices rebounded (+0.7%), while food prices dipped (-0.1%). Used vehicle prices fell (-0.5%), egg prices dropped sharply (-12.7%).

Additional 10% import tariffs and softened China tariff stance (90-day stay) showed no clear effect in April data. Economists expect potential CPI increases starting May, tempered by weaker demand.

After the report and recent tariff changes, Fed rate cut expectations have now shifted from June to the last quarter, with two cuts likely in 2025, as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

The 30-year bond yield, however, rose to 4.889%, which signals investor concerns about future inflation or tighter policy, adding confusion for investors and complicating the Fed’s decisions.

Lastly, real wages were flat for the month, up 1.4% year-over-year.

Global hits:

Exciting: Goldman Sachs has said it now sees a 35% chance of the U.S. entering a recession, down from a prior estimate of 45%. Similarly, Barclays dismissed recession risks entirely and J.P. Morgan placed the probability below 50%.

A look at the UK: Britain’s job market softened in April, with payrolls down by 33,000 following a 47,000 drop in March. Vacancies fell by 42,000 to 761,000—the sharpest decline in over a year. Wage growth slowed to 5.6% annually, just below forecasts. Markets and sterling remained steady after the data.

U.S. Household Debt Hits Record $18.2 Trillion in Q1 2025

U.S. household debt rose by $167 billion in the first quarter of 2025, reaching a new high of $18.2 trillion. Mortgage balances led the increase, jumping by $199 billion to $12.8 trillion. In contrast, credit card debt dropped by $29 billion to $1.18 trillion, and auto loans fell by $13 billion to $1.64 trillion—the second straight quarterly decline, a trend not seen since 2011.

Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) continued their steady climb, rising by $6 billion to $402 billion, marking twelve consecutive quarters of growth.

New mortgage originations saw a slight uptick to $426 billion, while credit card limits increased by $77 billion, a 1.5% rise from the previous quarter.

Student loan debt showed a sharp shift: following the end of pandemic-era reporting pauses, 7.74% of student loans were reported as 90+ days delinquent in Q1 2025, up dramatically from under 1% in Q4 2024.

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šŸ“ˆ Stocks

S&P 500 5,886.55 (+0.72%)
DJIA 42,140.43 (-0.64%)
NASDAQ 19,010.08 (+1.61%)
BRENT CRUDE 66.31 (-0.48%)
* Prices as of May 14th, 12:20 AM UTC

Palantir has everyone’s attention

Palantir soared to a record $128/share close on Tuesday. CEO Alex Karp mingled with tech elites and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Saudi Arabia Investment Forum.

Moreover, Archer Aviation (+22.91%) surged after revealing a partnership with Palantir to enhance its aviation systems with AI, alongside a strong Q1 earnings report.

Furthermore, Bank of America boosted its price target to $150, praising Palantir’s scalable AI solutions. More details on the Saudi deal below.

We must mention that we covered Palantir in this week’s Pro issue and called it a BUY. Hopefully, you benefitted from this call. Make sure to upgrade to the PRO today so you do not miss out on such opportunities in the future.

US-America together: Trump said U.S will be adding over $1 trillion in investments during Saudi Arabia trip, and we’re already getting news.

AMD, Google, and Uber surged after pledging $80B in a $600B U.S.-Saudi trade agreement.

AMD unveiled a $10B deal with Humain, a Saudi sovereign wealth fund-backed AI startup, while Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi announced plans to launch autonomous vehicles in Saudi Arabia within the year. This, with some new price targets, helped Uber jump over 4%.

Moreover, Nvidia will sell more than 18,000 of its latest artificial intelligence chips to Saudi company Humain.

Lastly, Elon Musk said Saudi Arabia has approved Starlink for aviation and maritime use in the kingdom.

Check this: Microsoft is cutting 3% of its workforce and Nissan would eliminate 11,000 more jobs and scale back production. Lastly, Google is updating its scam text detection technology to spot hoaxes.

UnitedHealth Group shocked investors with CEO Andrew Witty’s exit and the suspension of its 2025 forecast, sending shares down over 10%.

Car world: GM plans to launch lithium manganese-rich (LMR) prismatic batteries in its EVs by 2028. The new tech uses cheaper, more common materials, cutting costs and boosting profits for its electric SUVs and trucks.

Tesla (+4.93%) reported a 2.8% month-over-month increase in its average transaction price in April, hitting $56,120, amid new 25% import tariffs impacting the auto market. The average U.S. vehicle price rose to $48,699.

Tesla regained its $1T market cap, buoyed by a report that the ā€œBig Beautiful Billā€ in Congress excludes an EV purchase tax credit, potentially limiting new competitors in Tesla’s favor.

Toyota's sole U.S. EV gets a new name, ā€œbZ,ā€ and major upgrades to better rival Tesla and GM models.

Hertz shares fell 15% after weak Q1 results and plans to cut its rental fleet amid slower bookings, tariffs, and weak consumer demand.

JD earning: JD.com posted strong Q1 results, with revenue reaching $41.5 billion—surpassing analyst forecasts of $39.88 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.16, well ahead of the expected $0.97. Despite continued pressure from U.S. tariffs, the company saw retail sales grow 16% year-over-year, while its logistics segment reported an 11.5% increase in revenue.

šŸ’µ Personal Finance

How to be a day trader - Part XIII

Let’s continue the guide.

Day trading spans diverse markets—stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies, and futures—each with unique traits.

  • Stocks offer liquidity and variety, with high-volume names like Apple ideal for scalping.

  • Forex operates 24/5, with pairs like EUR/USD providing tight spreads and volatility during major sessions.

  • Cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, are highly volatile, suiting risk-tolerant traders but requiring caution due to unpredictable swings.

  • Futures, such as S&P 500 contracts, offer leverage but demand experience due to large contract sizes.

Each market requires tailored strategies: momentum trading works well in stocks, while forex traders often use breakout strategies during news events.

Crypto traders may focus on trend-following due to prolonged runs. Understand margin requirements and trading hours for each market to avoid surprises.

Beginners should start with one market to build expertise before diversifying. Use demo accounts to test market-specific strategies and monitor transaction costs, as fees vary widely.

By mastering market nuances, traders can align their approach with their risk tolerance and goals.

šŸ’° Be a Better Investor

ā€œBeing civil to those without money is rare because they can’t purchase itā€

Charles Dickens

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