未 The job report

and prepare for a busy week

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Good morning investors!

Today we cover:

  • The job report is here.

  • What to look up to this week.

  • Staying positive under stress.

 Economy and News 

What the job report said

The US economy added 206,000 jobs in June, easing from a downwardly revised May tally of 215,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate moved a little higher, up 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, marking the first time since November 2021 that the jobless rate was above 4%.

Thats not too shabby at a time when interest rates are at a 23-year high and the Federal Reserve is looking for inflation and overall demand to cool before bringing down rates, said Gus Faucher, chief economist for the PNC Financial Services Group.

Economists were expecting employers to have added 190,000 jobs last month and for the unemployment rate to remain at 4%, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

The numbers: The largest chunk of job gains occurred in the public sector, which added a net 70,000 jobs, specifically local government excluding education (up 34,100).

The health care industry added another 48,600 positions.

Some of the largest job losses occurred in temporary help services, which were down 48,900 for the month, dragging down the professional and business services super sector, which lost 17,000. Manufacturing and retail also saw losses, of 8,000 and 8,500, respectively.

Wages: Wage growth cooled as anticipated, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% for the month and slowing to 3.9% on an annual basis, its lowest rate in three years.

The report did not have much of an impact on the market.

Global hits:

Also check: John Deere to lay off roughly 600 employees from three US factories.

 Stocks

S&P 500 5,567.19 (+0.54%)
DJIA 39,375.87 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ 18,352.76 (+0.90%)
BRENT CRUDE 86.76 (-0.01%)
* Prices as of Jul 8th, 12:20 AM UTC

What to look forward to this week

We have a lot to keep an eye on this week, including President Biden who faces increased skepticism from within his own party regarding his potential 2024 reelection campaign. The concerns were not alleviated following his recent interview with ABC News, which was anticipated to address these issues. 

Adding to the Democratic unease, two additional lawmakers, Rep. Mike Quigley from Illinois and Rep. Angie Craig from Minnesota, publicly urged Biden to reconsider his intention to run for president again.

On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify Tuesday and Wednesday before the Senate and House, respectively. While the hearings are mainly focused on monetary policy, some think it could impact the market.

Thats not it, the inflation report for June is set to be presented on Thursday, July 11. The Street expectations call for a 0.1% MoM and 3.1% YoY change. The core CPI is expected to increase by 0.2%.

The report may have a major impact on the market.

Should the CPI report print in line with our expectations, we would maintain our expectation for the Fed to start its cutting cycle in December, Bank of America economists wrote.

That said, we do acknowledge that another 0.2% m/m print for Core CPI would tilt the risk towards an earlier cut especially given signs of softening activity.

Lastly, we will start having some big names announce earnings, including major banks like Citigroup and airlines like Delta.

Projections for the second quarter of 2024 suggest earnings increase of 8.6% compared to the same period in the previous year, with revenues also expected to rise by 4.7%. This anticipated growth rate is the most significant since the 9.9% uptick observed in the first quarter of 2022.

Interesting: Ford sales edge 1% higher in the second quarter, led by trucks.

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 Personal Finance

Dealing with a financial crisis

Nearly half (47 percent) of adults say money has a negative impact on their mental health at least occasionally.

Women are significantly more likely than men to say money negatively impacts their mental health (51 percent versus 42 percent).

More than half (53 percent) of those with annual household incomes under $50,000 say their mental health is negatively impacted by money matters. That figure falls to 48 percent in households that earn between $50,000 and $79,999, 39 percent in households that earn between $80,000 and $99,999 and 40 percent in households that earn $100,000 or more.

Among adults who say money concerns have negatively impacted their mental health, inflation is the top concern cited by 65 percent. Other worries include paying for everyday expenses (59 percent), not having enough emergency savings (56 percent) and being in debt (47 percent).

This means that if youre facing a financial crisis or stress due to money then youre not alone. So, how does one deal with this? Here are some tips:

  • Keep a gratitude journal for a couple of weeks-- Dr. Seligman, the founding father of positive psychology, asked participants to write three things that went well that day. After one week subjects in the study were 2% happier than before, and in follow-up tests, their happiness kept on increasing--5% at one month, 9% at six months. The gratitude journal is one great way to increase our positive thoughts. The financial concerns are REAL, but so are all the amazing things in your life. Dont allow the worry to drown out the joy. If you know youre going to write three things tonight for which you are grateful, youll start watching for things throughout your entire day. This shift in mental focus is liberating! Do your worries go away? Of course not. You still have a financial conundrum to figure out. BUT your focus on possibility will actually spur your creative problem solving. 

  • Change your mindset: Dont beat yourself up with extremist language that will only reinforce a negative thinking pattern. If you hear yourself saying (or thinking!), I ALWAYS manage to screw up my bank account and end up overdrawn, counter the extreme language with reality. This is the third time this year Ive been overdrawn.   Hear yourself say, I will NEVER pay off my student loans and be out of debt. Counter that NEVER with fact. If I pay back my loans at this rate, I will be in debt until 2025. The news may still not be picture-perfect but you stop the brain from catastrophizing the situation. Also, surrounding yourself with positive people could be of help. Why not follow our X and LinkedIn pages for your daily dose of motivation?

  • Talk to others: When youre facing money problems, theres often a strong temptation to bottle everything up and try to go it alone. Many of us even consider money a taboo subject, one not to be discussed with others. You may feel awkward about disclosing the amount you earn or spend, feel shame about any financial mistakes youve made, or embarrassed about not being able to provide for your family. But bottling things up will only make your financial stress worse. Talk to someone like a friend or consider a professional like a financial planner.

Above all, find ways to solve your problem by looking for more opportunities to make money and reducing your expenses.

Be a Better Investor

Be a doer, not a dreamer.

Shonda Rhimes

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