Good morning investors! Stocks ended last week higher, snapping five-week losing streaks with gains of at least 3% across major indexes. However, with confusion still there, this may be another difficult week.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
Defense startups are shining
Chinese tech firms go big
📊 Economy and News
What to Expect This Week
Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, April 6
Trump Press Conference: President Trump holds an Oval Office press conference with military leaders at 1 p.m. ET, as the self-imposed deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approaches. War developments continue to drive market swings.
Tuesday, April 7
Fed Speaker: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee participates in a live Q&A in Detroit at 12:35 p.m. ET. Recent Fed comments have highlighted potential war-related risks to inflation and the job market.
Wednesday, April 8
Delta Air Lines (DAL) – Reports Q1 earnings before the bell, with conference call at 10 a.m. ET.
Fed Minutes – March FOMC meeting minutes released at 2 p.m. ET (key for rate expectations).
Constellation Brands (STZ) – Reports fiscal Q4 results after close (Modelo beer, High West whiskey). The report will offer insight into consumer spending and drinking trends.
Thursday, April 9
PCE Inflation – February Personal Consumption Expenditures data released. Expected: +0.4% month-over-month, +2.8% year-over-year. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Friday, April 10
CPI Report – March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists forecast +0.9% month-over-month and +3.4% year-over-year (up from 2.4% in February). This reading will begin to reflect impacts from the Iran conflict.
Global hits:
The cost to fly private is up as much as 20% with fuel prices soaring.
India makes first Iranian oil purchase in seven years with no payment problems.
Buffett may end donations to Gates charity over Bill’s ties to Epstein.
The job market: Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 in March, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000.
The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.
Wages also rose less than expected, with average hourly earnings up just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago. The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021.
As has been the case, health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000 job
Reminder: OPEC+ may approve an oil output increase but it may largely exist on paper as key members are unable to raise production due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,582.69 (+0.11%)
DJIA 46,504.67 (-0.13%)
NASDAQ 21,879.18 (+0.18%)
BRENT CRUDE 109.04 (+8.12%)
* Prices as of Apr 5th, 12:20 AM UTC
Time for Defense Startups to shine?
Defense tech startups in the U.S. and Europe are seeing surging demand and new commercial opportunities amid the Iran war, as the U.S. and Gulf states rush to modernize their militaries with advanced technology.
Global funding for defense tech has skyrocketed more than tenfold, from $869 million in 2020 to $11.2 billion in 2025, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and now the Middle East conflict.
U.S. startups report increased interest from the Department of Defense, with customers offering to buy out capacity or requesting higher production. In Europe, executives say discussions with Gulf states have intensified, with interest described as “skyrocketing” following thousands of drone and missile attacks on the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait. S
everal firms, including Estonian startup Frankenburg and Ukrainian-UK Uforce, are expanding hiring in the region.
However, significant challenges remain. In the U.S., inconsistent government contracts make scaling risky, forcing companies to weigh capacity increases against potential profitability losses. In Europe, capital-constrained startups must decide whether to divert resources from domestic markets to chase Gulf opportunities.
The sector, once taboo for venture capital, has become a major investment focus, with recent megarounds like Saronic ($1.75B) and Shield AI ($2B).
Interesting: Chinese semiconductor companies, including SMIC and Hua Hong, reported record-high revenues in 2025, driven by surging AI demand, global memory chip shortages, and U.S. export restrictions that accelerated Beijing’s push for self-sufficiency.
SMIC’s revenue rose 16% to $9.3 billion, with expectations to exceed $11 billion in 2026, while firms like CXMT saw a 130% jump to over $8 billion thanks to domestic demand for AI infrastructure and high-bandwidth memory.
Even as Chinese chipmakers fill the local “compute gap” with homegrown alternatives to Nvidia and others, they still lag global leaders like TSMC in advanced technology, facing challenges from restricted access to cutting-edge tools and risks of overcapacity in mature-node chips.
Surprising: Cocoa — the key ingredient in chocolate — has been steadily falling from over $12,000 a ton in 2024 to about $3,300 a ton now.
💵 Personal Finance
The Key to Successful Investing: Trust the Process
The biggest threat to your investing success is often yourself. Decisions driven by fear, greed, hot tips, or daily headlines can destroy returns. What you need instead is a clear, rules-based investment process you can trust and stick with through good times and bad.
Here are three effective approaches:
1. DIY (Do It Yourself)
Handle your own investments by setting a simple asset allocation (stocks vs. bonds) using an online tool, investing in low-cost index funds or a target-date fund, and rebalancing once a year.
It’s the cheapest option, but it requires strong discipline to avoid emotional tinkering during market drops.
2. DIY with Help
Subscribe to a rules-based investment newsletter that matches your style (value, momentum, etc.). You still manage your own brokerage account and make the trades, but the newsletter provides specific buy/sell recommendations.
This adds some cost (typically $100–$1,000/year) but offers an objective framework that helps protect you from emotional decisions.
3. Hire a Financial Adviser
Work with a fiduciary adviser who follows a clear, rules-based process you understand and agree with.
This is usually the most expensive route (around 1% of assets annually), but it provides the strongest protection against your own emotions. A good adviser acts as a coach during market stress and often manages the portfolio directly.
No matter which process you choose, two habits will greatly improve your odds of success:
Manage your expectations: Markets go up and down. Understand how your chosen strategy has performed in past bull and bear markets so you’re prepared for volatility.
Tune out the noise: Ignore headlines, hot tips, and coworker bragging. Stay focused on your process.
Stick with a solid plan, and time will work in your favor.
💰 Be a Better Investor
“The darkest hour in any man’s life is when he sits down to plan how to get money without earning it.”
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