👓 What to expect this week

and are stocks going to crash?

Good morning investors! Let’s start the last quarter and prepare for some more major happenings.

Today we cover:

  • What to expect this week?

  • Will stocks fall again?

  • Understanding the impact of stock splits.

Also, don’t forget to check our X account where we post the latest happenings.

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📊 Economy and News 

As the final quarter of a volatile year begins, let’s prepare for the week ahead:

Powell’s Remarks and Fed Outlook

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak today about the economic outlook. Markets will be eager to glean clues about future rate cuts, especially after the recent 50 basis point reduction. Throughout the week, additional insight will come from other Fed officials, including Bowman, Bostic, and Barkin.

U.S. Jobs Data in Focus

The U.S. jobs report on Friday will be a pivotal indicator of the economy’s health. Economists forecast 144,000 new jobs in October, but any deviation could stir fears. Weak job growth might revive recession concerns, while stronger numbers could limit the Fed’s flexibility in cutting rates. Early insights will come from Tuesday’s JOLTS report and Wednesday’s ADP data on private-sector hiring.

Eurozone Inflation Watch

Eurozone inflation data will be released on Tuesday, with expectations of a dip to 1.9%. Investors will be watching to see if this drop influences the European Central Bank's decision to cut rates again in October. Lower inflation could prompt another rate cut, but economists warn it may rise again later in the year.

Oil Price Fluctuations

Oil prices ended last week with a modest recovery but remained down overall, with Brent losing 3% and crude futures falling 5%. Investors are balancing concerns about oversupply with China's latest economic stimulus and tensions in the Middle East.

Global hits:

Something about commercial property: Wells Fargo expects the recent cut rates as a potential turning point for the commercial property sector.

📈 Stocks

S&P 500 5,738.17 (-0.13%)
DJIA 42,313 (+0.33%)
NASDAQ 18,119.59 (-0.39%)
BRENT CRUDE 71.98 (+0.53%)
* Prices as of Sep 30th, 12:20 AM UTC

The Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts: Are We Heading Towards a Stock Market Meltup?

Yardeni Research thinks that the recent rate cut could result in a stock market "meltup."

A Meltup Like the 1990s?

Yardeni’s comparison to the 1990s is notable. During that decade, low inflation and strong economic growth fueled a prolonged stock market rally, especially in tech stocks, driven by monetary easing and technological advancements. However, this surge led to the bursting of the tech bubble in the early 2000s.

Yardeni suggests that recent rate cuts could create similar conditions. Despite a strong economy, lower interest rates might fuel an unsustainable stock market rally, with inflated valuations driven more by investor sentiment than by underlying fundamentals.

The Risks of Overstimulating a Strong Economy

The FOMC’s decision to increase market liquidity despite low unemployment and solid growth risks asset overvaluation and economic volatility. Yardeni warns that continued investor exuberance could lead to a market driven by speculation rather than real economic strength.

Conclusion: Caution for Long-Term Investors

The Fed's rate cuts may boost short-term market performance, but inflated asset prices could pose long-term risks. Investors should be cautious of overvaluation, as the 1990s meltup shows that aggressive monetary policy in a strong economy can have unintended consequences.

Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer and founder of Universa, also thinks that the US is preparing to go into a recession.

Surprise: OpenAI sees roughly $5 billion loss this year on $3.7 billion in revenue.

Also check: FDA approves Bristol Myers Squibb’s schizophrenia drug, the first new type of treatment in decades.

💵 Personal Finance

What history says about buying a stock before a split

When a company announces a stock split, it generates excitement among investors by increasing the number of shares and lowering the stock price, making it seem more affordable. However, the company's overall valuation remains unchanged since the price drop is proportional to the increase in shares.

For example, Nvidia and Broadcom, both major players in the semiconductor industry, recently conducted 10-for-1 stock splits. Analyzing their performance around these splits offers valuable insights.

In Nvidia's case, the stock split was announced on May 22, and shares began trading on a split-adjusted basis by June 10. Initially, there was a significant surge in stock price as investors rushed to buy shares, anticipating a post-split rally. However, after the split, Nvidia's stock price dropped 5% by September 20. Investors buying at the split actually acquired shares at a higher valuation despite the lower price. Similarly, Broadcom saw a price spike after announcing its split in June, but experienced heavy selling after the split in July, leading to flat trading by late September.

These patterns highlight a key risk for those buying stocks before a split: initial excitement can lead to price spikes, followed by selling or stagnation post-split. Momentum traders may seek quick profits, but long-term investors risk holding stocks at inflated prices. Broader market forces, like concerns over rising interest rates and shifts in investor sentiment—particularly in fast-growing sectors like AI—can also affect stock performance post-split.

In summary, while buying a stock before a split may seem attractive due to the perceived lower price, it's crucial to recognize that the stock's valuation remains unchanged. The initial price surge fueled by speculation may not last, and market trends and broader economic conditions can significantly influence future performance.

Reminder: A major split is set to occur today (Super Micro Computers), which makes it an interesting time to buy the stock. We covered the stock in yesterday’s PRO issue, which you can access now at a discount – $3.99 per month, which will give you access to all previous PRO issues, a free course worth $499, and more. Upgrade Now.

💰 Be a Better Investor

At some point further down the road, AI systems are going to get so good that they help us make better next-generation systems.

Sam Altman

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👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.