Good morning investors! The market recovered today as investors now appear more optimistic thanks to the truce in The Middle East.
Today we cover:
Jobless claims fall
What Fed said
Understanding Fed policies
📊 Economy and News
US Jobless Claims Fall to 226K – Labor Market Remains Stable
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 226,000 for the week ended June 13, slightly above economists’ forecast of 225,000.
While claims have been somewhat elevated recently, analysts largely attribute this to seasonal factors tied to the end of the school year rather than a weakening labor market.
The broader picture shows a stable job market that has regained momentum, with three straight months of solid job gains and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.
Interestingly, Kalshi traders see greater than 50% odds the Fed will hike rates this year.
Global hits:
Bank of England keeps rates steady as it weighs Iran truce.
Brazil cuts interest rates again, leaves door open for more.
Canada industrial product prices beat estimates on shipping disruptions.
Reminder: US reports net TIC inflow of $26.1 billion for April 2026. Elsewhere, Dollar hits one-year high on Fed hike bets; Japan warns on yen. Lastly, average US gas price drops below $4.
Do you expect the US-Iran agreement to hold?
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 7,500.58 (+1.08%)
DJIA 51,976.01 (-0.062%)
NASDAQ 26,517.93 (+1.91%)
BRENT CRUDE 79.41 (-0.42%)
* Prices as of Jun 19th, 12:20 AM UTC
5 Key Takeaways from Kevin Warsh’s First FOMC Meeting as Fed Chair
The Federal Reserve, under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the updated dot plot showed a more hawkish tilt, with the median projection pointing to at least one rate hike later this year.
Here are the five biggest takeaways:
Hawks Are Circling: The FOMC was split 9-9 on the outlook, but the median “dot” now signals a quarter-point rate increase ahead.
Warsh Skips the Dot: The new chairman confirmed he did not submit his own economic projections, consistent with his long-standing criticism of forward guidance.
Major Review Underway: Warsh launched five task forces to overhaul Fed communication, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity/jobs, AI’s impact, and the inflation framework.
Strong Focus on Inflation: Warsh repeatedly stressed “price stability” and the committee’s “unanimous” commitment to controlling inflation — a notably hawkish tone.
Shorter & Sharper Communication: The post-meeting statement was dramatically shortened to just 130 words, signaling a new, more concise approach to Fed messaging.
Look here too: In reaction to the Fed decision, bond traders are on edge as bearish options activity surged in the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) on Thursday. Put volume overwhelmed calls by a 5-to-1 margin, with one notable trade costing $1.3 million for 20,000 January 2027 75-strike puts. The spike in bearish bets comes amid uncertainty from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting and a sharp sell-off in crude oil prices, which is pressuring the energy sector that makes up over 11% of the HYG portfolio. The most active strike was the August 77 put, requiring HYG to fall another 4% for buyers to break even.
Interesting: Intel gains 10% after Trump says company will partner with Apple on U.S. chip design.
Surprising: Waymo recalls about 3,900 robotaxis after some drove into ‘freeway construction zones’. In other news, The average SpaceX buyer post-IPO is almost under water after two-day slide as the company is now less valuable than Amazon. However, the company is said to be eying $20B bond sale following landmark IPO.
💵 Personal Finance
What Kevin Warsh’s Fed Means for Your Savings and Debts
The Federal Reserve under new Chairman Kevin Warsh held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% this week, even as inflation hit 4.2% — its highest level in three years and well above the 2% target. While the job market has shown resilience, nine Fed officials now project at least one rate hike later in 2026.
For Savers: Inflation-beating yields are harder to find. Top online high-yield savings accounts currently offer around 4.0-4.4%, while the best bank CDs and short-term Treasuries sit in the 4.0-4.4% range. Money market funds average about 3.45%. For longer-term savings concerned about inflation, consider TIPS or I-Bonds.
For Borrowers: Act now rather than wait for the Fed. Average credit card rates sit at 19.56%, personal loans around 12%, 30-year mortgages at 6.52%, and auto loans remain elevated. Consider balance transfers, shopping for better loan rates, or paying more than the minimum to reduce interest costs. Mortgage shoppers should explore alternatives to 30-year fixed rates if buying this year.
Overall, Warsh’s more hawkish stance and reform agenda signal a tougher environment for borrowing and slightly better — but more competitive — options for saving in the months ahead.
Also, don’t forget to check our YouTube channel for more great tips, including how to manage your money.
💰 Be a Better Investor
“If the only way you’re going is downhill, then even a small obstacle becomes a welcome break. Similarly, if you're going downhill because of debt, the only way out is simple: stop borrowing—then start paying back what you owe.”
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