🧠 What to expect this week

Together with Money

Good morning investors! February proved to be painful and now investors expect great things from March.

Today we cover:

• What to expect this week

• Fintech stocks fall

• What to expect in March

📊 Economy and News 

Markets Brace for Key Events: Trump’s Address, Tariffs, Jobs Report, and Earnings

This week, markets will be closely watching President Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday, where he may outline his administration’s economic priorities. On the same day, new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports take effect, along with a sharp increase in existing tariffs on Chinese goods.

The February jobs report, set for release Friday, will be a key indicator of labor market strength amid rising unemployment claims. Investors will also track remarks from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the upcoming policy meeting blackout period.

Economic data releases include factory orders, trade balance figures, and PMI surveys, offering insights into manufacturing and consumer trends. Meanwhile, major earnings reports are expected from Broadcom, Target, Costco, and other retailers and tech firms, with investors watching for signs of economic resilience.

Global hits:

• China’s DeepSeek claims theoretical cost-profit ratio of 545% per day.

• The first quarter is on track for negative GDP growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says.

• Amazon eyes global expansion with a competitor to Temu and Shein.

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 5,954.50 (+1.59%)
DJIA 43,840.91 (+1.39%)
NASDAQ 18,847.28 (+1.63%)
BRENT CRUDE 72.42 (-1.81%)
* Prices as of Mar 2nd, 12:20 AM UTC

Fintech Stocks Face Volatility Amid Market Pressures

February was a rough month for the stock market, particularly for fintech stocks, with major players seeing sharp declines amid market uncertainty. Block plunged 28%, marking its worst drop in over a year, while others fell by 20% or more. Meanwhile, Stripe secured a $91.5 billion valuation in a new tender offer, highlighting the contrast between public and private market valuations.

Publicly traded fintechs have faced intense volatility, with earnings reports triggering significant stock swings. SoFi saw its stock drop 8% after missing earnings expectations, while PayPal fell despite surpassing forecasts. Even Coinbase that reported a 130% revenue jump, struggled as crypto prices fluctuated.

Broader market concerns also weighed on stocks, with the Nasdaq down 4% and the S&P 500 slipping 1.4% in February. Economic uncertainty, rising unemployment claims, and potential tariffs have rattled investors, with fintech stocks particularly sensitive to interest rates and consumer confidence.

Investors are more cautious now and experts suggest special care.

Controversial: Volkswagen to recall over 60,000 US vehicles. Elsewhere, ‘Tesla Takedown’ protesters gather outside showrooms to rally against Elon Musk’s role with DOGE. Lastly, Intel delays Ohio chip plant opening to next decade, was supposed to start production by 2026.

💵 Personal Finance

Will March 2025 Bring Relief to a Choppy Stock Market?

The stock market has endured a turbulent start to 2025, with the first two months delivering uneven performance. Yet, as the calendar flips to March, historical patterns suggest Wall Street might catch a seasonal break.

According to S&P 500 return data from FactSet, March has outperformed both January and February on average over the past 20 years. It also holds an edge over February across a 10-year span, though the two months are nearly neck-and-neck over 15 years. After a 1.4% decline in February that erased most of the S&P 500’s year-to-date gains, the stage could be set for a shift—.SPX 1M mountain charts confirm February’s losses.

That said, March doesn’t reach the heights of top-performing months like April, July, or November, and there are reasons to keep expectations in check. With the U.S. election still fresh in memory, Christopher Mistal, director of research at Stock Trader’s Almanac, cautions against over-optimism. “Usually a solid performing month, March has tended to be softer in post-election years as it is the last month of the historically weak Q1,” he noted. The Nasdaq, too, often lags the S&P 500 during these post-election Marches, Mistal added.

Trading patterns in March also differ in post-election years. Over the past 21 years, March typically starts weak, falters mid-month, then rallies toward the end. In post-election cycles, however, it tends to open strong, hold steady through mid-month, then struggle to close. This choppy rhythm could signal volatility ahead.

Compounding the uncertainty, March 2025 brings a slate of potential market movers. The nonfarm payrolls report, due March 7, will offer a snapshot of labor market health. Then, on March 18-19, Federal Reserve officials will convene to weigh interest rate decisions, unveiling fresh projections on economic growth and inflation—updates that could jolt markets in either direction.

While history hints at a March reprieve, post-election dynamics and looming events suggest investors might need to brace for more twists.

We must, however, mention that some experts believe a correction is on the way. 

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👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.

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