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Good morning investors! The market was mixed yesterday with Bitcoin briefly falling below $111,000.
Fun fact: The U.S. 10-year note is the most traded government bond in the world.
Today we cover:
US going into recession?
Stocks to hit a new high?
More Trump announcements
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How do you expect Nvidia to react after earnings?
📊 Economy and News
US in a stall state?
Barclays analysts report that the U.S. economy is in a “stall state,” with a 50% chance of recession within two years, based on their “tipping points” model, which incorporates payroll revisions and indicators like nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate.
The model suggests a decelerated growth pace, making the economy vulnerable, with probabilities of a stall state ranging from 47% to 90%.
This supports expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and December.
Global hits:
IMF sees Panama GDP up 4.5% this year in rebound from copper mine closure.
India’s credit rating affirmed at ’BBB-’ by Fitch.
German business morale rises unexpectedly in August.
Trump vs. Cook: What we Know
The Trump administration has accused Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook of mortgage fraud, alleging she falsely claimed two properties as primary residences in 2021 mortgage documents.
The Justice Department is investigating after FHFA Director Bill Pulte raised concerns about Cook’s Ann Arbor and Atlanta properties. While listing multiple primary residences could lead to lower interest rates, it’s unclear if Cook’s actions were intentional.
Cook denies wrongdoing and vows to address the allegations, while experts note proving fraud requires evidence of intent and lender impact.
Reminder: Higher tariffs on furniture to be announced within next 50 days. Meanwhile, Keurig Dr Pepper to acquire JDE Peet’s, then split.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,439.32 (-0.43%)
DJIA 45,282.47 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ 21,449.29 (-0.22%)
BRENT CRUDE 68.75 (+1.51%)
* Prices as of Aug 25th, 12:20 AM UTC
Jefferies Boosts S&P 500 Target to 6,600 on Strong Earnings
Jefferies has raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 6,600 from 5,600, driven by robust Q2 corporate earnings and a resilient U.S. economy.
The brokerage noted strong performances from AI-related firms and financials, with 80% of 474 S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates, surpassing the historical average of 67%.
Jefferies forecasts a 10% rise in S&P 500 earnings per share to $267 this year and expects three Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in September.
Exciting: Nvidia’s new ‘robot brain’ goes on sale for $3,499 as company targets robotics for growth. And, Netflix's ‘K-Pop Demon Hunters’ leaves investors happy.
Controversial: Musk’s xAI sues Apple, OpenAI, alleging anticompetitive scheme harmed X, Grok. Elsewhere, Intel says Trump deal has risks for shareholders, international sales. Lastly, Orsted shares tumble over 16% to record low, as U.S. government halts wind project construction.
💵 Personal Finance
Could Your Home Pay for Long-Term Care?
If you’re 62 or older, a reverse mortgage can help you age in place by turning home equity into tax-free cash (without giving up ownership or moving out). That means you can stay in familiar surroundings, get the care you need, and preserve your independence – all on your terms.
Get started by checking out Money’s list of the best reverse mortgages here (sponsor).
What is it? A reverse mortgage is a loan for older homeowners (typically 62+) that allows them to borrow against their home equity, converting equity into cash without selling their home.
Remember that long-term care costs are substantial, with annual national median costs around $70,800 for assisted living, $127,750 for a private nursing home room, and $77,792 for an in-home health aide.
These costs vary significantly by location and care level, with projected increases to double by 2053. Because health insurance and Medicare typically do not cover these expenses, individuals often rely on self-funding, which can deplete savings.
If you’re planning for retirement then make sure to plan for long-term care as well.
💰 Be a Better Investor
“Time in the market beats timing the market.”
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.