Good morning investors! Things are rapidly changing in The Middle East as a solution now looks posible.
Today we cover:
US business activity falls
Stocks to go higher?
Arm goes big
📊 Economy and News
U.S. Business Activity Hits 11-Month Low in March Amid Middle East Conflict
U.S. business activity slowed to an 11-month low in March as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran drove up energy and input costs.
The Composite PMI Output Index fell to 51.4 from 51.9 in February — the weakest reading since April 2025. The drop was driven by services (51.1 vs 51.7), while manufacturing surprisingly improved to 52.4.
Key highlights:
Input prices jumped sharply to 63.2 (from 60.0), largely due to the over 30% surge in oil prices and higher gasoline costs.
Output prices rose to 58.9, signaling consumer inflation could accelerate toward 4%.
Private-sector employment turned negative for the first time in 13 months (49.7), as companies cut overheads amid uncertainty.
S&P Global’s chief economist Chris Williamson noted the survey shows an “unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation” caused by the conflict’s impact on demand, costs, and supply chains.
Global hits:
Iran war starts to hit global economy, business surveys show.
Hungary central bank cuts 2026 growth forecast to 1.7%
Iran charges transit fees on vessels in Strait of Hormuz.
Reminder: US Easter spending to touch a record $24.9 billion in 2026. And, EU, Australia seal trade deal as Western countries hedge against U.S. risks.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,556.37 (-0.37%)
DJIA 46,124.06 (-0.18%)
NASDAQ 21,761.90 (-0.84%)
BRENT CRUDE 98.12 (-6.13%)
* Prices as of Mar 25th, 12:20 AM UTC
Barclays Raises 2026 S&P 500 Year-End Target to 7,650 Despite Geopolitical and Inflation Risks
Barclays upgraded its 2026 year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,650 from 7,400, implying roughly 16% upside from Monday’s closing level near 6,581.
The British bank remains bullish on U.S. equities, citing resilient economic growth, strong corporate earnings — especially in technology — and the U.S. as the standout major economy with a powerful secular growth engine in tech.
Despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has already pushed the S&P 500 down about 4.3% since the conflict began, Barclays believes these positive drivers will outweigh rising macro risks, including higher oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, AI disruption, and stress in private credit markets.
The firm also raised its 2026 S&P 500 earnings-per-share forecast to $321 from $305, based on a robust earnings outlook rather than multiple expansion.
Barclays warned of a bear-case scenario where the index could fall to 5,900 if sustained high oil prices force the Federal Reserve into a difficult position with limited policy options.
On sectors, the bank upgraded industrials to “positive” and moved materials and energy to “neutral,” expecting benefits from industrial momentum, AI-related capex, and higher energy prices.
Our take: Mixed signals from President Trump and Tehran indicate trouble ahead, it’s best to be cautious.
Interesting: Amazon acquires ‘approachable’ humanoid maker Fauna Robotics.
OpenAI raises additional money to bring record funding round to $120 billion.
Surprising: OpenAI shutters short-form video app Sora as company reels in costs. In other news, Meta must pay $375 million for violating New Mexico law in child exploitation case, jury rules.
Arm goes big: Arm has released its first in-house chip, with Meta as debut customer. Also, the company rose 6% in after-hours trading as CEO Rene Haas announced new financial figures.
Haas projected $25 billion in revenue in 2031. Arm’s 2025 revenue was just above $4 billion.
About $15 billion of the 2031 revenue is projected to come from sales of Arm’s first in-house chip, the AGI CPU.
Circle recorded its worst day ever, dropping 20% after investors reacted negatively to the latest version of the Clarity Act that proposed prohibiting stablecoin issuers from paying any yield or rewards to customers simply for holding the assets.
💵 Personal Finance
Over 7 Million Borrowers Stuck in Defunct SAVE Student Loan Plan — Debt Is Growing
The SAVE student loan repayment plan is officially dead after a federal appeals court ruling, yet more than 7.2 million borrowers remain enrolled in forbearance.
While they still don’t have to make payments for now, interest has been accruing since August. The average borrower’s balance has already grown by more than $2,500, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
Borrowers in SAVE are also making zero progress toward any loan forgiveness, including Public Service Loan Forgiveness.
Experts warn that staying in the paused plan could lead to even bigger problems. When the forbearance eventually ends, a massive backlog of repayment plan applications is expected, and those who switch now will likely get processed faster and avoid extra interest.
The current best alternative for most is the Income-Based Repayment (IBR) plan, though monthly payments could roughly double for many borrowers compared to SAVE.
What borrowers should do:
Submit a new repayment plan application as soon as possible
Check eligibility for deferments (e.g., unemployment) where interest doesn’t accrue
Use online tools to compare monthly payments under different plans
Acting quickly can limit further debt growth and position borrowers ahead of the expected processing crunch.
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FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY; NOT ADVICE. Morning Download products and services are offered for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be construed as a securities-related offer or solicitation or be relied upon as personalized financial advice. We are not financial advisors and cannot give personalized advice. There is a risk of loss in all trading, and you may lose some or all of your original investment. Results presented are not typical. This message may contain paid advertisements, or affiliate links. This content is for educational purposes only.
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