Oil to go higher?

Good morning investors! Investors remain scared as the situation in The Middle East declines to change.

Today we cover:

📊 Economy and News

Dubai crude surged to a record $166 per barrel, far exceeding global benchmarks, due to crippled transit through the Strait of Hormuz from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.

Brent crude trades around $106–108 (up nearly 50% since war start; year-to-date +76%), while WTI hovers near $100 or below in recent sessions.

Analysts (JPMorgan, Wood Mackenzie, Rystad) warn prolonged closure could force Brent/WTI higher as global supply tightens, though Western prices lag due to higher transport costs to Asia and no full convergence yet.

If Hormuz stays blocked, expect broader consumer impacts: higher gas prices, shipping/trucking costs, and inflation passed to goods.

Reminder: Wall Street bank capital to fall 4.8% under new rules, in win for industry. Elsewhere, both precious and industrial metals fell in Thursday trading as investors are starting to worry this oil shock will go on long enough to cause an economic slowdown or recession.

Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years.

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 6,606.49 (-0.27%)
DJIA 46,021.43 (-0.44%)
NASDAQ 22,090.69 (-0.28%)
BRENT CRUDE 108.5 (+1.27%)
* Prices as of Mar 19th, 12:20 AM UTC

FedEx beat Wall Street estimates for revenue and earnings per share. Also, the company raised its guidance for fiscal 2026, projecting revenue growth of 6% to 6.5% compared with analyst estimates of up 5.6%.

The company previously said it expected roughly $1 billion in cost reductions from its “Network 2.0” initiative, which is focused on optimizing efficiency of its package processes by leveraging automation and artificial intelligence. FedEx now expects those savings to exceed $1 billion.

Shares of FedEx rose roughly 9% in extended trading.

FedEx said its freight business is on track to be spun off on June 1.

Surprising: U.S. tech execs smuggled Nvidia chips to China, prosecutors say. Also, Figma dropped 12% in two days after Google releases ‘vibe design’ product. And, Meta backtracks on decision to end Horizon Worlds VR after fans speak up. Lastly, Amazon has acquired startup Rivr to test robots for ‘doorstep delivery’.

💵 Personal Finance

The expiration of enhanced premium subsidies for Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans at the end of 2025 has triggered significant financial strain for enrollees, with premiums more than doubling for many in 2026.

A recent KFF poll of over 1,100 adults previously enrolled in ACA plans in 2025 found that 9% dropped coverage entirely and became uninsured. An additional 17% of those who reenrolled expressed doubt about affording their new premiums, putting them at risk of dropping insurance later.

Over half (55%) of returning enrollees reported cutting or planning to cut spending on essentials like food and clothing to cover health costs. Others are seeking extra work (43%), delaying bills (23%), or taking on debt (21%).

The subsidies, which aided over 90% of ACA enrollees (about 22 million people), made coverage far more affordable. Their lapse—amid political debates and a government shutdown—has led to downgrades to lower-premium but higher-deductible plans (e.g., bronze tiers) for many.

KFF experts note widespread struggles, with households facing tough trade-offs and worries about affording care if sick. Enrollment is projected to plummet, potentially halving by 2028 per Congressional Budget Office estimates, erasing gains since the enhanced subsidies began.

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