Good morning investors! Stocks declined for a forth day in a row as investors continued to rotate out of key artificial intelligence names.
Today we cover:
Predictions market go big
Micron beats
Preparing taxes
📊 Economy and News
Coinbase Expands into Stocks and Prediction Markets Amid Booming Sector Growth
Coinbase is aggressively transforming into a comprehensive financial app by launching stock trading, advanced derivatives, and prediction markets via a partnership with Kalshi. CEO Brian Armstrong aims to create a "one-stop" platform for trading everything from traditional equities to on-chain assets.
The company is also unveiling a tokenization roadmap to bring real-world assets like stocks onto the blockchain, alongside expanded APIs for businesses in custody, payments, and stablecoins. Armstrong views this as an upgrade to the entire financial system, predicting major asset classes will migrate on-chain.
The prediction markets space is heating up rapidly. Competitors like Robinhood (expanding into sports-style contracts), DraftKings, FanDuel, and crypto-native Polymarket are all entering the fray.
A new report from Eilers & Krejcik forecasts the sector could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by decade's end, driven largely by sports (expected to account for 44% of mature volume). Analysts highlight strong consumer demand but note regulatory hurdles as a key risk.
This convergence of investing, gambling, and crypto signals a potential "supercycle" for prediction markets, with platforms vying to capture always-on user engagement across asset classes.
Global hits:
Polish financial regulator gives green light for Erste’s takeover of Santander.
UK inflation falls sharply to 3.2% in November, fueling likelihood of Christmas rate cut.
Brazil threatens to abandon Mercosur-EU deal as Italy, France seek delay.
Canada’s population falls 0.2% in Q3 2025, first decline outside Covid era.
Reminder: Defense stocks rally as Germany set to approve $60 billion defense splurge. Elsewhere, Europe backtracks on ban of new combustion engine cars, in setback to tackling climate change.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,721.43 (-1.16%)
DJIA 47,885.97 (-0.47%)
NASDAQ 22,693.32 (-1.81%)
BRENT CRUDE 59.68.14 (+1.29%)
* Prices as of Dec 18th, 12:20 AM UTC
Micron Soars on AI-Driven Memory Demand with Record Earnings Beat
Micron Technology reported strong fiscal Q1 2026 results, exceeding Wall Street expectations amid booming demand for AI infrastructure.
Key Financials (vs. LSEG estimates):
Adjusted EPS: $4.78 (est. $3.95)
Revenue: $13.64 billion (est. $12.84 billion), up 57% year-over-year
Net income: $5.24 billion ($4.60 per share)
The company issued upbeat Q2 guidance:
Revenue: ~$18.70 billion (est. $14.20 billion)
Adjusted EPS: ~$8.42 (est. $4.78)
CEO Sanjay Mehrotra highlighted surging demand for high-performance memory and storage due to AI data center expansion, with server units growing in the high teens for 2025. Cloud memory sales doubled to $5.28 billion annually.
Micron, a key supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI chips (including AMD's), saw shares rise over 7% in after-hours trading.
Interesting: OpenAI is in discussions with Amazon about a potential investment of $10 billion or more.
Chinese chipmaker MetaX Integrated Circuits Shanghai soared nearly 700% on market debut.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences signed a multiyear deal with Google-owned YouTube to stream the Oscars globally starting in 2029.
Oracle Debacle: Oracle's Project Stargate AI data center expansion faced a setback when key partner Blue Owl Capital declined to fund a $10 billion 1GW facility in Saline Township, Michigan, due to unfavorable lease and debt terms compared to prior deals.
This highlights investor concerns over Oracle's rising debt (~$105 billion, up sharply YoY) and massive future lease commitments ($248 billion over 15-19 years, mostly for data centers).
Some OpenAI-linked data centers have reportedly slipped from 2027 to 2028 amid labor/material shortages, though Oracle denies any impact on contractual timelines.
Oracle disputed the funding "pullout," stating Blue Owl was simply not selected from competitive options and that a new equity partner will keep the Michigan project on schedule (construction start early 2026).
💵 Personal Finance
Key Changes to U.S. Taxes in 2025 Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed in July 2025, introduces several new tax provisions effective this year. These changes may lower your tax bill or increase your refund, but they add complexity to filing. Many require new forms like Schedule 1-A.
Major Updates for Individual Filers
Higher Standard Deduction Single: $15,750 (up from $15,000) Married joint: $31,500 (up from $30,000) Head of household: $23,625 (up from $22,500)
New Senior Deduction $6,000 ($12,000 joint) for those born before Jan. 2, 1961. Phases out for higher incomes (MAGI > $75,000 single/$150,000 joint).
Expanded SALT Deduction Cap raised to $40,000 ($20,000 if married separately) for state/local taxes. Limited for MAGI over $500,000.
Car Loan Interest Deduction Deduct up to $10,000 interest on new U.S.-assembled vehicles. Phases out for higher incomes.
Tips Deduction Up to $25,000 in qualified tips deductible, subject to income limits (full benefit below $150,000 single/$300,000 joint).
Overtime Pay Deduction Deduct portion of qualified overtime (up to $12,500 single/$25,000 joint), limited to time-and-a-half premium.
Increased Child Tax Credit Raised to $2,200 per qualifying child (requires SSNs).
End of Clean Vehicle Credits Expired after Sept. 30, 2025 (no credits for EVs/FCVs purchased later).
Trump Accounts for Newborns $1,000 federal seed money in investment accounts for babies born 2025–2028 (U.S. citizens with SSNs).
New Crypto Reporting Centralized exchanges will issue Form 1099-DA for 2025 transactions.
Consult a tax professional for eligibility and documentation, as rules include income phaseouts and new reporting requirements.
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