Morning Download from Invincible Money 

Personal finance + economics + markets

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Good morning investors! Thank you to everyone who takes the surveys at the end of the newsletter and provides feedback on what you like or would like to see added. It helps me make the newsletter better every day!

Today we cover:

1. Wall St. now saying less chance of a recession

2. Real wages are finally positive!

3. Microsoft signs big deal with Sony for Call of Duty

4. Twitter vs. Threads: The battle for revenue

5. What could trigger the next crypto bull run?

6. What’s a financial statement? (Part 1 of 3)

📊 Economy 

Recession delayed

It’s looking like the consensus on Wall Street on the upcoming recessions is… we’re not much less likely to actually have one!

A Wall Street Journal poll of economists found they think the likelihood of a recession next year has fallen from 61% to 54%.

Also, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to its highest point since September 2021 thanks to a strong jobs market and prices coming down. People are feelin’ good!

And…Goldman Sachs is saying there’s just a 20% chance of the U.S. economy going into recession in the next year.

Real Wages finally positive

More good news!

It finally happened. After 2 years of inflation outpacing wage growth, the trend has reversed. Weekly earnings grew at 0.6% last month, so consumers didn’t lose purchasing power.

Definition: Real wages are wages adjusted for inflation. If real wages are negative, that means you’re actually going backwards thanks to inflation.

📰 News

Microsoft - Sony sign 10 year deal

It appears all parties are pretty confident Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard will go through, especially after the UK’s CMA signaled they’ll approve it and a judge in the U.S. denied the FTC’s injunction last week.

The current FTC is having a tough time these days - losing 4 merger trials. The FTC usually wins 75% of the time. Not anymore.

Twitter vs. Threads: The battle over revenue

Twitter fights back: Daily active users at Threads was down 20% last weekend, while Musk stated Twitter ad revenue is down 50%. However, Twitter just paid out $5 million in the first round of a new program to share revenue with creators, which got creators pumped.

Many of them earned $20,000 last month.

To be eligible you must to verified, follow the content moderation standards and post multiple forms of content regularly.

Threads, meanwhile, has advertisers banging on its door with handfuls of money. Meta has a state-of-the-art ad system for Instagram and Facebook, but has yet to open it up to Threads. It won’t be too hard for Meta to simply add the option for advertisers to check the box to extend ads to Threads.

One caveat: Meta may end up cannibalizing Instagram’s revenue instead instead of Twitter’s, which is probably why they’re taking it slow. Zuck said he’ll wait until it’s on track to 1 billion users first. So far, so good.

📈 Stocks

S&P 500 4,522.79 (+0.39%)
DJIA 34,585.35 (+0.22%)
NASDAQ 14,244.95 (+0.93%)
VIX 13.48 (+1.05%)

☎️ Telecom companies AT&T [T -6.69%] and Verizon [VZ -7.5%] tanked thanks to a report in the WSJ that the companies use lead-covered cables that were laid decades ago and they’re contaminating many parts of the U.S.

👆🏿Upstart [UPST +13.71%] soared on reports of lower inflation.

Who? Upstart operates a cloud-based A.I lending platform in the U.S. and uses A.I. to better underwrite loans. It’s been a rough road for many in the lending sector the past 2 years with rates rising. Now that rates are coming down, the company is looking more attractive.

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🔐 Crypto

Bitcoin $30,140.62 (-0.5%)
Ethereum $1,910.28 (-0.9%)
Total market cap $1.25 (-0.4%)
* Prices as of July 18th, 3:15 AM UTC

What could setup next bull run?

No one knows when the next crypto bull run is, but one crytpo degen has some ideas. Here are his top 7:

1. The Bitcoin halving will reduce the supply of new Bitcoin, which could lead to a price hike.

2. Institutional adoption could make it easier for people to invest in Bitcoin, which could drive demand.

3. Regulatory clarity could give companies and retailers the confidence to enter the crypto market, which could increase adoption.

4. The money printer turning back on could lead to more inflation, which could make people more risk-on and invest in crypto.

5. China could drive the next bull run by increasing its money supply and investing in crypto.

6. Crypto narratives could capture the attention of retail investors and drive a bull run.

7. Unknown killer dApps could emerge and bring attention and money to the crypto ecosystem.

Any of these could happen, or several all at once. Or they could not happen and crypto stays where it is or gradually gains in value. Think about how likely you think each of these is to happen and then gage your optimism accordingly.

💵 Personal Finance

What’s a financial statement?

A financial statement is a formal record of the financial activities and position of a business, person, or other entity. Relevant financial information is presented in a structured manner and in a form which is easy to understand.

There are three main types of financial statements:

• The balance sheet: This statement shows a company's assets, liabilities, and shareholders' equity at a specific point in time.

• The income statement: This statement shows a company's revenues, expenses, and profits over a period of time.

• The statement of cash flows: This statement shows how a company's cash flows have changed over a period of time.

Part 1 of 3. Tune in tomorrow for Part 2.

💰 Be a Better Investor

👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.

tuesday