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Good morning investors! The market continues to impress.
Today we cover:
Two more cuts coming?
It’s an AI world
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📊 Economy and News
Fed Signals Two More Rate Cuts in 2025 Amid Labor Market Concerns
Federal Reserve officials, in their September 2025 meeting, leaned toward lowering interest rates, with a 10-9 split favoring two additional quarter-point cuts by year-end, according to meeting minutes.
The decision follows a recent cut bringing the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%, driven by a weakening labor market, despite easing inflation concerns. While most participants supported further easing, some urged caution, citing less restrictive financial conditions.
New Governor Stephen Miran dissented, advocating for a more aggressive half-point cut. The ongoing government shutdown may complicate future decisions, potentially leaving policymakers without key economic data for the October 28-29 meeting.
Global hits:
Germany’s economy to grow 0.2% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026.
UK statistics office cuts borrowing estimate by £3 billion.
BofA forecasts China’s Q3 GDP growth to slow to 4.5% on high base effect.
Just in: Iraq signs deal with Exxon to help develop large oilfield. Also, U.S. cocoa futures for December delivery fell 1.4% on Wednesday to $6,090 per ton, hitting their lowest level since early 2024 after nearing $13,000 in mid-December.
Oh no: The Senate again rejected dueling Republican and Democratic funding proposals to end the government shutdown.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,753.72 (+0.58%)
DJIA 46,601.78 (-0.0026%)
NASDAQ 23,043.38 (+1.12%)
BRENT CRUDE 66.25 (+1.22%)
* Prices as of 9 Oct, 12:20 AM UTC
It’s an AI World
AI stocks are again in the news and appear to have investors interested. AMD is up nearly 50% this week thanks to the discussion with OpenAI. On the other hand, CoreWeave has new tools to sell to individual software developers who want to train and monitor artificial intelligence models.
The product complements CoreWeave’s existing business of renting Nvidia GPUs to OpenAI and other clients.
Also, Nvidia is a having good run. The stock jumped after CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC that demand for AI is growing exponentially.
Exciting: Crypto exchange Gemini launches Australian arm.
Good to know: China smartphone market sees modest 1.3% growth in August. In other news, SoftBank to buy ABB robotics unit for $5.4 billion as it boosts its AI play.
💵 Personal Finance
Income in the era of silence
The partial shutdown has disrupted flows of economic data and delayed the release of a key pillar of many retirees’ budgets — the Social Security COLA. With fiscal maneuvering now dictating the timetable, the income landscape is less transparent than it’s been in decades.
Why this matters
Retirees, fixed-income allocators, and anyone relying on predictable yield streams now face greater timing risk and uncertainty. When COLA becomes official, it can shift disposable income expectations and thus broader consumer behavior. For those balancing cash-producing assets, the delay exacerbates rollover risk and reinvestment ambiguity.
Actionable tips
Maintain buffer allocations in cash or short-duration instruments.
Delay large duration bets until the data flow resumes.
Monitor congressional and BLS signals closely — they will be the new “real-time data.”
For retirees, if inflation appears to be under- or over-performing consensus, be ready to adjust income or spending plans dynamically.
Perspective
The shutdown temporarily breaks the data feed, putting markets on “pilotless mode.” In such periods, technicals and sentiment often matter more than fundamentals. Guard against overconfidence, and treat positioning as tactical rather than strategic.
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
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