Morning Download from Invincible Money 

Personal finance + economics + markets

5 minutes a day for better money decisions.

Good morning investors! The NASDAQ 100 is on track to have the best first half of the year ever!

In today’s issue:

• We may be in a rolling recession

• Student loan repayments could lead to trouble

• American’s have $54,000 of consumer debt

• Why Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum

• One stock almost doubled yesterday!

📊 Economy 

Rolling Recession —> Rolling Expansion

In recent weeks, we’ve highlighted the economists calling for a recession, even as the S&P 500 and Bitcoin rise higher. It seems investors are growing weary of recession talk and continue investing.

Yardeni Research re-iterated they don’t think we’re headed for an inevitable recession. in fact, they say we’re in a “rolling recession,” where some sectors expand and other contract, to be followed by a “rolling expansion.”

Student loan repayments could lead to defaults

As U.S. student loan repayments resume soon, this could have a negative impact on other loans, such as credit cards and auto payments as people may prioritize student loan payments and skip others.

"We estimate that serious delinquencies could rise by about 67% over time, with risks of knock-on effects to other forms of household debt as well,” Bank of America said.

📰 News

Real estate problems

Commercial real estate has become a debt timebomb, as office towers remain empty in once-bustling cities.

• In San Francisco, a third of office buildings are now vacant, and the city is facing a $2.2 billion debt due to unpaid property taxes.

• The pandemic has accelerated the trend of remote work, and many companies are now reconsidering their need for large office spaces.

• As a result, the value of commercial real estate has plummeted 27% from a year ago, and many investors are facing losses while cities contend with vacant downtown areas.

Americans have $54k of debt

The average American carries an average of $54,000 in debt, with student loans being the most common type of debt.

• The total amount of debt held by Americans is $14.7 trillion, which is more than the country's GDP and an all-time high.

• The debt burden is disproportionately high for young adults, with those under the age of 35 carrying an average of $35,000 in debt.

• The high levels of debt are a major financial burden for many Americans, and they are a threat to the economy as a whole.

A recent survey indicated that only 38% of people feel “very confidence” they can stay out of debt, once all their debts are paid, mostly due to the rising costs of living, unexpected expenses and rising interest costs.

Having an emergency fund of 3-6 months of expenses can relieve of lot of the stress from debt (we’ll get into this more in tomorrow’s newsletter)

Meta announced a new VR subscription service

• The service will give users access to two new titles each month, as well as cloud backup, experimental features, and discounts on select games.

• Quest Plus will cost $9.99 per month or $99 per year.

📈 Stocks

S&P 500 4,328.82 (-0.45%)
DJIA 33,714.71 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ 13,335.78 (-1.16%)
VIX 14.25 (+6.03%)

Tech stocks took a hit more than the rest of the market yesterday as investors sold some of best performing tech stocks, like Apple.

Alphabet and Tesla, have recently been downgraded by analysts.

• Analysts contend that the stocks have done so well so far this year, there may not be much upside left.

• Tesla was down 6.6%, Nvidia -3.74%.

Yesterday’s big winner was MoonLake Immunotherapeutics [MLTX +77.55%]. The $2 billion biotech stock released news of a successful trial for a skin treatment that will go up against Humira when it goes to market.

Aston Martin Inks a deal

Aston Martin and Lucid Motors have agreed to a $500 million technology partnership that will see Aston Martin use Lucid's EV technology in its future electric vehicles. The deal is expected to help Aston Martin accelerate its EV transition and give it access to Lucid's advanced battery technology and electric powertrains.

The news of the deal sent shares of both Aston Martin and Lucid soaring on Monday. Aston Martin's stock price was up more than 40%, while Lucid's stock price was up more than 20% before closing up 10.76% and 1.46%, respectively.

Aston Martin plans to have all their cars be fully EV by 2030.

Pro tip: If you’re an entrepreneur, you may like The Sweaty Startup newsletter.

🔐 Crypto

Bitcoin $30,156.31 (-1.3%)
Ethereum $1,853.20 (-2.8%)
Total market cap $1.21 T (-1.4%)
* prices as of 6pm EST, June 26th

Bitcoin hit a 2-month high recently and CEO of CryptoQuant speculates on who the buyers are driving up the prices..

or institutions loading up after the announced that BlackRock and others have filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Ethereum hasn’t fared nearly as well due to speculation that the SEC will begin cracking down on DeFi.

💵 Personal Finance

ChatGPT can’t think for you

According to Motley Fool, 50% of Millennials are using ChatGPT for investment advice. However, experts point out that ChatGPT often gives answers that sound plausible, but are “hallucinations” full of incorrect info.

• Be careful taking advice for an A.I. (at least for now).

• A.I. can’t think critically or form hypothesis necessary for investing.

💰 Be a Better Investor

👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.