Good morning investors! S&P 500 approaches 6,700 for first time as traders look past the shutdown that failed to end yesterday.
Today we cover:
The shutdown
Intel and AMD join hands?
What to do during a shutdown (for retirees)
📊 Economy and News
Government Shutdown Impacts: Student Loans, Real Estate, Social Security, and Fed Policy
Student Loan Delays Worsen Amid Shutdown The U.S. government shutdown is exacerbating delays for over 1 million federal student loan borrowers awaiting affordable repayment plans or debt forgiveness. With 87% of the Department of Education’s staff furloughed, processing for income-driven repayment plans and Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) has slowed significantly. Borrowers are still required to make payments, as loan servicers remain operational.
Commercial Real Estate Faces Ripple Effects The shutdown and DOGE’s (Department of Government Efficiency) cancellation of 384 federal office leases, saving an estimated $140 million, are disrupting commercial real estate markets. These cancellations, affecting agencies like the Social Security Administration and Small Business Administration, leave landlords without stable government tenants, destabilizing property values and commercial lending markets. Rural areas face heightened risks, as 57% of cancellable leases are outside major states. Landlords may need to reconfigure vacant spaces for new tenants, impacting local economies and mortgage markets nationwide.
Social Security Payments Continue, Services Limited Social Security benefits for over 74 million recipients will continue uninterrupted during the shutdown, but the Social Security Administration will furlough 6,000 of its 51,000 employees, reducing services like issuing proof of income letters or replacing Medicare cards. The 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement, expected this month, could be delayed if consumer price index data is not released on October 15. Beneficiaries can still access online services and apply for benefits, but in-person support is limited.
Federal Reserve Likely to Cut Rates The shutdown has increased the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 100% chance for October and 88% for December. The Fed, led by Chair Jerome Powell, may act cautiously due to labor market concerns and potential economic disruptions from the shutdown. If key data like the September jobs report is delayed, the Fed may opt for a “risk management” cut to mitigate downside risks, despite some concerns about tariff-driven inflation.
Global hits:
Croatia’s inflation hits new intra-year peak at 4.2% in September.
Portugal’s unemployment rate edges up to 6.1% in August.
Inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro picked up to 2.2% in September from 2.0% in August.
U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly fell in September, suggesting a weakening in labor market conditions.
Private employment fell by 32,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 3,000 decrease in August, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 50,000 following a previously reported 54,000 advance in August.
In the absence of data from government agencies due to the current shutdown, investors may have to put a greater reliance on alternative data sources such as ADP.
Reminder: US Patent and Trademark office to lay off 1% of its workforce. Also, gold prices soared to new highs Wednesday just shy of $4,000 per ounce
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,711.20 (+0.34)
DJIA 46,441.10 (+0.093%)
NASDAQ 22,755.16 (+0.42%)
BRENT CRUDE 65.55 (-0.01%)
* Prices as of Oct 2nd, 12:20 AM UTC
Intel and AMD to join hands?
Intel is in early talks with AMD to manufacture chips for it in its foundry business. If AMD were to start manufacturing chips with Intel, it would be a significant win for the company’s foundry business, which is currently seeking big customers.
It would also signal that AMD, which competes with Intel in x86-based chips for PCs and servers, is confident doing its manufacturing with its biggest competitor.
The news sent both stocks higher with Intel now up over 42% month over month.
Look here: Google cuts more than 100 design-related roles in cloud unit.
Shares of South Korean chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix surged Thursday, a day after the two companies partnered with artificial-intelligence major OpenAI as part of the U.S. firm’s Stargate initiative.
Check this: Microsoft increased its Xbox Game Pass Ultimate subscription price by 50% to $29.99 per month. Also, the company has launched AI and productivity software bundle for consumers starting at $19.99 per month.
💵 Personal Finance
Keep your money moving during a shutdown
A federal shutdown can pause some public-data releases and furlough workers, but most household money tasks still run today. Social Security benefits continue, Medicare coverage remains active, and the IRS keeps core payment systems open even if some services slow. If you’re 60–64 and planning retirement moves this fall, you can keep making smart decisions with a few tweaks.
What keeps working: Social Security remains in pay status and online accounts operate for benefit estimates and updates, per the agency’s guidance and login shift to Login.gov. Medicare coverage continues and the plan-compare tool remains available for fall shopping. The IRS continues to accept and process electronic payments and keeps Direct Pay and online account access available, though some processing can lag.
Quick moves if you’re within five years of retirement:
Verify your lifetime earnings record and fix errors in your [my Social Security] before you claim. (Social Security)
Price 2026 drug and Medicare Advantage options early with the [Medicare Plan Finder] if you expect health-cost changes. (Medicare)
Schedule any estimated-tax or balance-due payments via [IRS Direct Pay] to avoid penalties. (IRS)
Context and trade-offs: This shutdown does not stop benefit payments, but it can delay some agency responses. Online self-service beats phone lines during staffing gaps. If you were planning to file for benefits or change withholding, you can still submit forms online and track status through your account.
For healthcare, use plan-finder filters to compare total annual costs, not just premiums.
If you are moving from employer coverage to Medicare soon, set reminders for your enrollment windows so you do not face penalties.
For taxes, scheduling electronic payments today locks in timeliness even if back-office reconciliation runs slower. Staying proactive keeps your retirement plan on track despite temporary government disruptions.
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.