Good morning investors! Investors appear confused as the US-Iran situation remains dynamic.
Today we cover:
US-Iran halt strikes?
The housing market
Big stock bet
📊 Economy and News
US-Iran to Pause Attacks?
U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that he does not know if the U.S. and Iran are returning to a full-scale military conflict. He also added that Iran had called to make a deal with the U.S. after the uS hit approximately 170 Iranian military targets.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the U.S. strikes were a violation of the memorandum of understanding reached less than four weeks ago.
Global hits:
Mexico’s annual inflation hits lowest level in over five years.
Bank of France raises Q2 growth forecast after June rebound.
Global M&A activity on track to eclipse 2021 deal boom.
Home sales disappoint: June home sales fell 2.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, missing expectations for a gain, as high mortgage rates and record prices continued to weigh on buyers.
The median existing-home price hit an all-time high of $440,600, up 1.8% from a year earlier, while inventory edged down slightly to 1.56 million units (a 4.6-month supply).
Sales were still 2.8% higher than June last year, supported by strong job gains, with activity strongest at the high end of the market (homes over $750K) and in the Northeast. All-cash purchases accounted for 25% of sales (down from 29% last year), and first-time buyers rose to 33%.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 7,543.64 (+0.81%)
DJIA 52,487.41 (+0.27%)
NASDAQ 26,206.89 (+1.30%)
BRENT CRUDE 76.30 (-1.72%)
* Prices as of Jul 10th, 12:20 AM UTC
What This Big Trade Tells
A trader made a high-conviction bullish bet on the Nasdaq-100, spending roughly $24 million on a three-part call spread in the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF on Thursday.
The position centered on buying 28,000 July 31 expiration 736-strike calls for about $30 million, while selling a 730/740 call spread to reduce the net cost to around $24 million — pushing the breakeven near $750 (just above the recent QQQ high).
The trade, one of the largest options transactions of the day, signals confidence that the Nasdaq-100 will reach a new all-time high by month-end, despite the index being largely flat since mid-May amid recent volatility.
Overall QQQ options flow was mixed, but this standout directional wager reflects growing optimism among some bulls that tech stocks are poised for a breakout.
Interesting: Meta jumps into AI coding market in effort to chase Anthropic and OpenAI.
Goldman Sachs wins $70 billion in asset management deals with Verizon, Lockheed Martin.
Surprising: AstraZeneca stock drops 9% after heart drug trial miss. In other news, Micron shares rise 7% after announcing billions more in U.S. chipmaking investments. Lastly, SK Hynix, the second most valuable company in South Korea, behind only Samsung, is slated to begin trading on the Nasdaq today.
AI pricing: OpenAI’s newest AI model is 54% more token efficient on agentic coding as Palo Alto CEO says AI pricing needs to fall 90%.
💵 Personal Finance
Understanding Insider Trading
Insider trading refers to the buying or selling of a company's securities by individuals who possess material, nonpublic information that could significantly influence an investor’s decision. While the term often carries negative connotations, not all insider transactions are illegal.
Corporate officers, directors, significant shareholders (over 10%), and temporary insiders (such as lawyers or consultants) are considered insiders. Legal trading occurs when transactions are based on public information, executed through pre-established SEC Rule 10b5-1 trading plans (with cooling-off periods and disclosure requirements), or properly reported via Form 4 filings within two business days.
Illegal insider trading happens when someone trades on or tips material nonpublic information — such as upcoming mergers, earnings surprises, or major management changes — in breach of a duty of trust. This includes classic insider trading, tipping, misappropriation, front-running, and the newer focus on “shadow trading” (using information about one company to trade a related peer).
High-profile cases include Martha Stewart’s 2003 ImClone trade, Rajat Gupta’s 2012 Goldman Sachs leak, and recent examples involving spousal tips or Netflix engineers.
The SEC and DOJ enforce these rules using market surveillance, data analytics, whistleblower tips, and pattern detection. Penalties are severe: civil fines up to three times the profit/loss avoided, disgorgement of gains, injunctions, and criminal charges carrying up to 20 years in prison plus millions in fines. Recent 2022 updates to Rule 10b5-1 tightened trading plan loopholes with mandatory cooling periods and certifications to improve transparency.
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Money is an addiction.
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