Good morning investors! The market went up again as optimism returns.
Today we cover:
No dot plot?
Stocks go higher, but some fell
The new ‘oil’
📊 Economy and News
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Expected to Skip Dot Plot in First Rate Outlook
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meets today and will release its quarterly economic projections, including the closely watched “dot plot” showing where officials see interest rates heading.
However, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to withhold his dot. Having taken office only on May 22, Warsh has long criticized the dot plot and other forms of forward guidance, arguing they restrict the Fed’s flexibility and can lock policymakers into mistakes (such as the 2021–22 “transitory” inflation misjudgment).
Skipping the dot would mark a break from 14 years of tradition and could create tension inside the FOMC, but it aligns with Warsh’s push for major changes in how the Fed communicates.
Markets usually react strongly to the dot plot, so its absence is likely to draw significant attention. Some economists warn it could raise questions about whether the Fed is hiding a more hawkish stance on inflation.
Global hits:
Bank of France cuts 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.9%.
EU lawmakers approve US trade deal to avert tariff conflict.
US import prices increase more than expected in May.
Important: US single-family housing starts slide to eight-month low; imported inflation increases sharply.
Reminder: Brent falls below $80 per barrel, for the first time since May, on report U.S. will allow Iran to sell oil immediately as President Donald Trump suggested openness to sharing the details of the peace deal with Congress. In other news, bill limiting investors from buying homes set to speed through Congress.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 7,511.35 (-0.57%)
DJIA 51,999.67 (+0.64%)
NASDAQ 26,376.34 (-1.15%)
BRENT CRUDE 78.14 (-4.37%)
* Prices as of Jun 17th, 12:20 AM UTC
The DOW Goes Up, But Not Everything’s Higher
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record high on Tuesday as investors rotated out of chipmakers and into cyclical stocks amid declining oil prices.
A number of chip stocks suffered losses: Advanced Micro Devices dropped over 7%, Broadcom fell 4%. Micron Technology shed 6%. and Nvidia lost more than 2%.
On the other hand, SpaceX continued to be a standout with its nearly 5% pop, helping it briefly surpass both Microsoft and Amazon in market cap during the session. The company priced its initial public offering at $135. It closed at $201.80.
Remember: Michael Burry said he has no position in SpaceX and questions the company’s nearly $3 trillion market value. Burry said the option trades he reviewed to wager against SpaceX are too expensive.
As oil dipped further, shares of Caterpillar led industrials higher, while JPMorgan Chase was a leader among banks higher as investors bet that lower energy prices will spur a re-acceleration in the U.S. economy.
Interesting: Intel begins production of most-advanced chip, inching closer to possible Apple deal.
General Motors announces new defense partnership with Lockheed Martin.
Surprising: Rivian laying off hundreds of workers amid R2 launch. Elsewhere, Snap unveils $2,195 AR glasses as CEO Evan Spiegel bets on post-smartphone future.
💵 Personal Finance
AI Compute Power Could Become the “New Oil” with First Futures Contracts
A startup called Silicon Data has partnered with CME Group to launch the world’s first futures contracts tied to AI computing power (GPU rental costs), allowing companies to hedge against volatile expenses for training and running AI models. The contracts are pending regulatory approval.
The idea treats GPU compute like jet fuel for airlines — a critical and fluctuating resource that most AI companies rent from cloud providers rather than own. Silicon Data has created GPU price indexes to serve as benchmarks for these futures.
Early interest is strong: Asset managers ProShares and Rex Shares have already filed for related ETFs (including leveraged versions). Founder Carmen Li believes the market could eventually surpass oil futures in size, as AI energy demand grows massively.
The contracts would enable both hedgers (AI firms and GPU providers) and speculators to trade, though standardization of the highly varied GPU configurations remains a key challenge.
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