Good morning investors! Bitcoin and stocks gained as the White House says shutdown-related firings may be very high.
Today we cover:
Layoffs drop
Tesla and more report sales
Preparing for the tax season
❓About 85% of our subscribers said that the ‘government shutdown does not bother them…’
📊 Economy and News
U.S. Layoffs Drop in September, Hiring Plans Hit 16-Year Low
U.S. employers cut layoffs by 37% in September to 54,064, but year-to-date job cuts reached 946,426, the highest since 2020, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Hiring plans totaled 204,939, the lowest since 2009, signaling a stagnant labor market driven by policy uncertainty, AI advancements, and reduced federal workforce.
The government, with 299,755 planned cuts, led layoffs, while technology saw 107,878 job losses. A government shutdown has delayed key economic reports, complicating decision-making.
Global hits:
Western Cape emerges as South Africa's fastest-growing economy with R666.8 billion GDP.
Bank of England survey shows weakest hiring plans since 2020.
Eurozone unemployment rate rises to 6.3% in August.
Taiwan rejects U.S. proposal for ’50-50′ chip production, says trade talks focused on tariffs.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,716 (+0.1%)
DJIA 46,528 (+0.1%)
NASDAQ 22,847 (+0.1%)
BRENT CRUDE 66.53 (-0.8%)
* Prices as of Oct 3rd, 12:20 AM UTC
Tesla, BYD, and more report numbers
Tesla reported quarterly vehicle deliveries up 7% over the year prior for the period ended Tuesday, the same day that a key tax credit for buyers of electric vehicles in the U.S. expired.
Here are the key numbers:
Total deliveries Q3 2025: 497,099
Total production Q3 2025: 447,450
Shares dipped by more than 3% Thursday following the report. Tesla saw a decline in production this quarter compared to the 469,796 vehicles produced last year.
The Elon Musk-led company was expected to report around 447,600 deliveries, according to estimates compiled by FactSet.
Tesla distributed a company-compiled consensus on Sept. 26, which said analysts were expecting 443,079 deliveries.
The company doesn’t break out sales and production by model or region. However, Tesla said it produced 435,826 of its most popular Model 3 and Model Y cars. Deliveries are the closest approximation of vehicle sales reported by Tesla but are not precisely defined in the company’s shareholder communications.
Year-to-date, Tesla’s deliveries stood around 1.2 million, down about 6% compared to the first three quarters of 2024.
The slowdown in Europe was partially offset in the U.S., where buyers rushed to purchase EVs ahead of the expiration of a federal tax credit.
Earlier this week, Ford said sales of its all-electric vehicles increased by 30.2% during the period to help it notch a fresh quarterly record of more than 30,600 units, still lagging far behind Tesla.
On the other hand, BYD delivered 393,060 units in September, marking an almost a 6% decline year over year, its first YOY decline. That comes after the firm reportedly slashed its sales target for this year by as much as 16% to 4.6 million deliveries, amid a fierce price competition in the domestic market.
Still, BYD continued to dominate the market share, taking up more than 54% of total EV sales in September.
Some smaller names, however, did very well. Leapmotor delivered 66,657 vehicles in September, increasing over 97% year on year and continuing its streak of all-time record highs. The Stellantis-backed company’s latest figure also surpassed the 50,000 mark it reached in July.
In a similar beat, the Huawei-backed Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance, which includes brands such as Aito, Chery, and Maextro, set a fresh monthly record with 52,916 units across its entire series.
The automaker also surpassed the 40,000 range that it’s been hovering within since May.
Xiaomi clocked a new milestone with over 40,000 units in September, about twice of what it delivered in January.
The EV rising star YU7, Xiaomi’s second production model and direct competitor to Tesla’s Model Y, cumulatively delivered a total of 40,000 units over the past three months since it officially launched in July.
Also beating its own monthly delivery record was Xpeng, with 41,581 deliveries in September, marking a 95% year-over-year increase and up 10% on a monthly basis. The automaker also exceeded the 40,000 mark, after staying within the 30,000s range since last November.
Nio posted 34,749 deliveries in September, notching the second straight month of fresh record highs. Nearly half of the sales were of its family-oriented smart electric vehicle brand, Onvo.
Meanwhile, Li Auto rebounded in September with 33,951 deliveries, after two consecutive months of sales below its usual 30,000 range. The startup recorded declining sales over the past three months despite a new car launch in August.
Geely-owned Zeekr made 18,257 deliveries in September, slightly below its record of 18,908 units in May.
Don’t forget: Tom Lee sees S&P 500 topping 7,000 by year-end.
Meta wants to bring its Business AI chat tools to third-party websites, which means Meta will soon use your conversations with its AI chatbot to sell you stuff.
Perplexity AI rolls out Comet browser for free worldwide.
Check this: Shein enters bricks-and-mortar retail in France, sparking backlash. Elsewhere, Amazon faces FAA, NTSB probe after two delivery drones crashed into crane in Arizona.
Lastly, Elon Musk is urging his followers to cancel their Netflix subscriptions over a controversy surrounding an animated show and its creator. The stock is down 4% this week.
💵 Personal Finance
Q4 tax moves you can do today
Q4 is the cleanest window to tighten up 2025 taxes before year-end. With official economic releases paused by the shutdown, it’s a good moment to focus on controllables that actually move your after-tax return today.
Start with your paycheck. If your 2025 withholding is off, you still have pay periods left to correct it. The IRS Withholding Estimator walks you through your situation and shows how to adjust your W-4 so you neither owe a big bill nor give the government an interest-free loan (IRS Estimator). If you’re self-employed, a small change to October and January estimated payments can prevent penalties.
Next look at realized gains and losses. If you harvested gains earlier this year, consider offsetting positions you no longer want to hold. Watch the wash-sale rule and short- vs. long-term holding periods. High-bracket investors should also check whether qualified dividends and long-term gains are being pushed into a higher bracket by other income.
A few quick wins:
Run the IRS Withholding Estimator and submit any W-4 tweak to HR today.
Review losers in taxable accounts and map potential swaps to avoid wash sales.
Check charitable plans. Donor-advised fund contributions can bundle several years of giving into one deduction year.
If you’re 73+, line up Required Minimum Distributions and consider Qualified Charitable Distributions to reduce AGI.
Finally, give yourself a deadline. Put a 30-minute calendar block next week to review tax-advantaged space left in 401(k), HSA, or SEP-IRA. If a December bonus is likely, model its impact now and decide whether to increase pre-tax deferrals. You don’t need to predict the economy to improve your net results. You just need to execute a short checklist while there’s still time in the calendar.
💰 Be a Better Investor
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.