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Good morning investors! The market performed well yesterday and today we await the last big earning of the season, Nvidia.
Today we cover:
Economy news
Trump vs Cook
Apple’s coming with new products
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📊 Economy and News
A lot is happening in the economy
U.S. durable goods orders fell 2.8% to $302.8 billion in July 2025, marking the third decline in four months but outperforming economists' expectations of a 4.0% drop. While transportation equipamento orders, particularly aircraft, drove the decline with a 9.7% decrease to $101.7 billion, orders excluding transportation rose 1.1%, surpassing estimates of a 0.2% increase. Orders excluding defense fell 2.5%. Companies like Boeing, Caterpillar, and Deere & Co. are notably impacted by these trends due to their reliance on transportation and heavy equipment demand.
Consumer Confidence Index for August 2025 dipped slightly to 97.4 from 98.7, but outperformed expectations of 96.4, signaling a cautiously optimistic consumer outlook. This key indicator, which measures confidence in economic activity, suggests potential for increased consumer spending, a critical driver of economic growth, and is seen as a bullish sign for the USD.
The S&P Case-Shiller Index for June 2025 indicates a continued rise in U.S. home prices, with a national year-over-year increase of 1.9%, the slowest pace since summer 2023, down from May’s 2.3%, signaling a cooling housing market. The 10-city and 20-city indices rose 2.6% and 2.1%, respectively, with strong regional gains in cities like New York City (7.03%) and Chicago (6.09%), while Tampa saw a 2.38% decline. High mortgage rates, averaging 6.62% as of August 20, 2025, continue to constrain affordability and inventory, acting as "golden handcuffs" for homeowners.
Global hits:
.PBO sees Canada’s housing gap shrinking amid immigration slowdown.
Hungary holds base rate at 6.5% as inflation pressures persist.
U.K. economy shows resilience as business activity reaches highest level.
Trump vs Cook: President Donald Trump said he has fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, according to a letter addressed to her posted on his social media — the first instance of a president firing a central bank governor in the central bank’s 111-year history.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, announced he is filing a lawsuit to challenge President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire her as Lisa declines to leave her job.
The Federal Reserve said it would abide by any court decision on whether President Donald Trump has the legal authority to fire Board of Governors member Lisa Coot. Moreover, it noted that residents can only remove the central bank’s governors “for cause.”
On the other hand, President Donald Trump said he will soon have a “majority” of his nominees on the Federal Reserve board who will back his desire to slash interest rates.
Should Trump have the power to control Fed?
Surprising: Trump administration mulls taking stakes in defense firms including Lockheed Martin. We must add that, according to a previous poll on this site, about 80% of our subscribes do not support the US govt investing in private firms.
Also, Bessent says US tariff revenue could be well over $500 billion a year.
In another news, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund will exclude U.S. machinery manufacturer Caterpillar and five Israeli banks from its equity portfolio over what it called an “unacceptable risk” that the firms contribute to rights violations..
Lastly, US Commerce Department affirms anti-dumping duties against 10 countries, including Australia and Turkey.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,465.94 (+0.41%)
DJIA 45,418.07 (+0.30%)
NASDAQ 21,544.27 (+0.44%)
BRENT CRUDE 70.21 (-1.20%)
* Prices as of Aug 26th 3rd, 12:20 AM UTC
Apple’s next big event
On September 9, 2025, Apple will host a major event at its Apple Park campus, likely unveiling the iPhone 17, new Apple Watches, and other devices, under the tagline “Awe dropping.”
This event is pivotal for Apple to reinforce its innovation credentials, particularly in AI, amid tight consumer budgets and competition from Google’s AI advancements.
Expectations include a sleek new iPhone model, a standard iPhone 17, and Pro models with enhanced cameras, processors, and titanium designs.
Apple faces challenges with $1.1 billion in tariff-related costs, prompting a shift of iPhone production to India, which is currently exempt from 50% tariffs. Additionally, Apple’s $600 billion investment in U.S. operations aims to dodge 100% semiconductor tariffs.
The iPhone 16 Plus has underperformed, potentially leading to its discontinuation in 2025.
Bonus: Interestingly, data shows that nine of the past 21 iPhone launch events have seen Apple stock slip the day after, although shares have historically recovered and notched positive price action in the following 60 days.
Controversial: Google says China-linked cyber operations targeted Southeast Asia diplomats.
Trump Media and Crypto.com unveiled a plan to form a crypto treasury firm via SPAC, sending CRO up more than 20 percent intraday and lifting TMTG shares.
Good to know: AT&T to spend $23 billion on wireless spectrum licenses from EchoStar.
Okta’s quarterly results and full-year forecast exceeded consensus with the company raising forecast as CEO says economic conditions were ‘better than we thought’.
Eli Lilly’s weight loss pill orforglipron clears its latest trial, paving way for approval.
Lastly, Korean Air wants Boeing planes worth over $50 billion. The purchase, struck during South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's U.S. visit, is the largest deal in Korean Air's history.
💵 Personal Finance
Financial Market Impacts of Nixon’s Fed Pressure in the 1970s
In the early 1970s, President Richard Nixon pressured Federal Reserve Chair Arthur Burns to loosen monetary policy before the 1972 election, a move echoed by recent concerns over President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Historical data from Nomura shows that after Nixon’s actions, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.5% from November 6, 1972, to January 1973 but then fell 18% by July 1973.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6% from November 1972 to January 1973, only to plummet 19% within a year and 44% by January 1975.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surged over 130 basis points, hitting 7.58% by August 1973, as inflation soared.
Despite current market resilience, with stocks steady and the dollar down 0.3% on August 26, 2025, experts warn of risks to the dollar if Fed independence is threatened.
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.