😭 It's a crash

and no hope in sight

Jason Phillips, Trajan King & Michael Wight
March 11, 2025

Good morning investors! There’s panic and we can now officially call it a ‘crash’ as stocks continue to fall and Goldman Sachs downgraded its outlook for U.S. economic growth – from 2.4% to 1.7%. However, things may turn today as Trump is set to meet with Wall Street executives and top CEOs.

Today we cover:

Bull vs. Bear
Stocks cry
Oracle earnings

📊 Economy and News

Where’s it going?

After a rough week ending in a rally off a six-month low on March 7, 2025, the S&P 500 sits over 8% below its recent peak. Here’s a bull-bear breakdown based on numbers before yesterday’s open.

Bear Case: Guilty Until Proven Innocent

Technical Weakness: Nasdaq broke its 200-day average; S&P 500 hit Q4 lows, a classic warning per Stock Trader’s Almanac.
Limited Upside: Friday’s bounce held 5700, but durable lows rarely form this fast. Most pullbacks of 5% or more since 2022 have extended to 10%..
Economic Drag: Policy shifts (trade, immigration) and falling Treasury yields (2-year down from 4.35% to 4%) signal a slowdown. No major bearish capitulation yet.
Global Risks: Big moves in German bonds (10-year yield up to 3.09%), the Euro ($1.08+), and China’s stimulus could destabilize markets, like August 2024’s yen carry trade panic.

Bull Case: A Healthy Reset

Orderly Pullback: S&P 500 dropped 7% in 12 days, back to mid-July levels, with a 1.8% Friday bounce. The 200-day average still trends up.
Sentiment Shift: Surveys and the Fear & Greed Index show fear, a contrarian buy signal. Uncertainty peaks often mark bottoms.
Momentum Purge: Former leaders (Nvidia, Amazon, etc.) corrected, reducing overcrowding risks, per JPMorgan.
Valuation Appeal: Median S&P stock is 15% off highs; equal-weighted S&P hits a 10-year average P/E. Growth (7%+ Q1 profit) and consumer income remain solid.

Don’t forget to check our AI tool to see what experts have to say about specific stocks. You can find the latest buzz and more in just seconds.

When do you expect things to settle?

Global hits:

Saudi Arabia’s Q4 economy growth boosted by non-oil and government activities. On the other hand, Japan has revised fourth-quarter GDP lower, complicating BOJ’s interest rate outlook.
Consumer credit rose to $5 trillion in January.
China bond yields jump to three-month highs as investors pare rate cut expectations as US 10-year Treasury slides on rising recession concerns

What people think: The New York Fed's February 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows a slight rise in short-term inflation expectations, while medium- and long-term expectations remain unchanged. Consumer pessimism about finances has grown, with worsening outlooks on unemployment, delinquency, and credit access. Spending growth expectations have surged, but the likelihood of employees quitting jobs has hit its lowest since July 2023.

World talk: Canada’s main stock index fell more than 1% on Monday, as investors were averse to taking risks over persistent worries about the global trade war. Similarly, major stock markets in the Gulf fell in early trade on Monday as U.S. import tariffs sparked concerns over global economic growth, causing investors to shy away from riskier assets. On the other hand, risks to the Mexican, Canadian and American economies are piling up amid a chaotic implementation of U.S. tariffs. This, however, is helping some currencies, including the yen and Swiss franc.

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 5,614.56 (-2.70%)
DJIA 41,911.71 (-2.08%)
NASDAQ 17,468.32 (-4.0%)
BRENT CRUDE 69.32 (-1.43%)
* Prices as of Mar 3rd, 12:20 AM UTC

Let’s call it a crash

Some call it a temporary phase and some call it a correction; however, we’d call it a crash. Things are looking bad and Wall Street’s fear gauge hit a yearly high as concerns over Trump’s economic policy triggered a broad selloff. In fact, Nasdaq had its worst day since 2020.

Markets opened sharply lower, with all three major indexes sliding throughout the day. The decline erased gains since the November election, fueled by anxiety over Trump’s tariffs and his comments hinting at a possible recession. He joined Fox News and said “Look, we’re going to have disruption, but we’re OK with that.”

Tech stocks led the drop, pushing the Nasdaq into correction territory, while the S&P 500 fell 8.6% from its February peak. The seven most valuable tech companies lost more than $750 billion in market value on Monday.

Nvidia has now lost 20% of its value this year. This represents the stock’s worst start-of-year performance since 2022, when shares fell 27% in the same period.

Tesla plunged 15.4%, extending a 45% decline this year amid protests against Elon Musk’s ties to Trump and weak European sales. This was the stock’s steepest decline in five years.

Positive: The opinion is divided. Wall Street strategist Tom Lee stays bullish on stocks despite a recent selloff tied to economic slowdown fears. After nailing the 2023 and 2024 rallies, he sees a strong rebound as "very possible" soon, noting that just 10 top trading days can drive most of a year's gains.

Negative: On the other hand, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson expects the S&P 500 Index to drop as much as 5% to 5,500 in the first half of the year.

What we think: We believe March may continue to be volatile and things will start to settle next month.

Oracle earnings: Oracle missed Wall Street’s third-quarter revenue estimates, reporting $14.13 billion versus the expected $14.39 billion, as softer enterprise spending and competition from larger cloud rivals weighed on growth.

Despite strong demand, Oracle continues to face pressure from industry leaders Microsoft and Amazon. To expand its reach, the company has partnered with these hyperscalers, integrating its cloud with theirs for broader customer access.

Cloud revenue rose 23% to $6.2 billion. After falling nearly 5% during the day, Oracle’s stock edged up slightly after hours.

Check this: Volkswagen and Stellantis evade Trump's 25% tariffs, while BMW braces for impact. Also, Novo Nordisk reported that its weight-loss drug CagriSema led to a 15.7% weight reduction in obese or overweight adults with type 2 diabetes after 68 weeks. This falls short of the company's earlier 25% forecast. A previous trial in December showed a 22.7% reduction. The latest results sent Novo Nordisk’s stock down about 7%. Lastly, Asana CEO Dustin Moskovitz announces retirement, stock price drops 25%.

Delta says: Delta Air Lines cut its first-quarter revenue and profit forecasts citing weaker consumer and corporate travel demand.

🔐 Crypto

Bitcoin $79,59 (-5.76%)
Ether $1,882 (-6.32%)
Solana $116 (-6.43%)
Total market cap $2.56 (-7.3%)
* Prices as of Mar 11th, 12:20 AM UTC

A look at crypto

The U.S. regulator overseeing national banks clarified that banks can engage in some crypto activities, and removed expectations firms should receive advance permission from regulators before doing so.

On the other hand, crypto remains under pressure with Bitcoin down over 20% from all-time highs and Ethereum down nearly 25% from its all time high. BTC is now trading under $80,000 and ETH has fallen below $1,900 for the first time since 2023.

This triggered a sell off in crypto-related stocks as well with big players like Robinhood, Reddit, SoFi Coinbase, and MicroStrategy losing 10+% each.

💵 Personal Finance

Aristotle’s 10 Virtues for Happiness—and Their Investment Edge

Aristotle’s timeless virtues offer a guide to personal fulfillment, but they also hold practical wisdom for investors seeking discipline and clarity in volatile markets.

Confront Fear: Face what scares you—market dips included—to build resilience.
Tame Appetites: Master impulses, like chasing hype stocks or overtrading.
Balance Spending: Avoid stinginess or extravagance with capital allocation.
Give Generously: Share gains with loved ones or causes, fostering goodwill.
Prioritize the Big Picture: Focus on long-term trends, not daily noise.
Stay Calm: Keep emotions in check during market swings.
Be Honest: Don’t delude yourself about losses or risks.
Avoid Greed: Don’t fight for every penny—think abundance, not scarcity.
Forgive Mistakes: Let go of past trades to stay clear-headed.
Set Principles: Define your investment ethics and stick to them, unwatched.

These virtues don’t just cultivate happiness—they sharpen investment decisions. By facing fear, curbing greed, and staying principled, investors can navigate uncertainty with poise, turning ancient wisdom into modern wealth.

Here’s an interesting video for investors:

💰 Be a Better Investor

“When you understand that your self-worth is not determined by your net-worth, then you’ll have financial freedom.”

Suze Orman

Resources:

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