🤝 US China stop tariffs temporarily

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Good morning investors! This was a busy weekend with the worsening situation in India improving, Trump visiting the Middle East, and the US finally starting a conversation with China.

Today we cover:

• US and China talk

• What to expect this week

• Day trading guide continues

📊 Economy and News 

U.S. and China Agree to 90-Day Tariff Suspension, Signaling Trade War De-Escalation

On Monday, the U.S. and China announced a temporary suspension of most tariffs on each other’s goods, starting Wednesday.

The statement says the additional tariff of 125 percent that China imposed on the US will be lowered to 10 percent, but talks will continue on a 24 percent portion while the levy is suspended for 90 days. Moreover, U.S. 20% duties on Chinese imports tied to fentanyl remain, leaving total U.S. tariffs on China at 30%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed the talks as “very productive,” noting the “equanimity” provided by the Lake Geneva venue.

Markets Rally on Trade Deal News
The tariff reprieve sparked a market surge: Nasdaq futures rose 3.7%, S&P 500 futures gained 2.7%, and the Dow climbed over 840 points, or 2%.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index jumped 1.1% to 101.46, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 1%. Oil prices also climbed, with Brent crude up 2.7% to $65.66 a barrel and WTI futures up 2.9% to $62.81.

Analysts See Progress but Uncertainty Remains
Mark Williams of Capital Economics called the truce a “substantial de-escalation” but warned that U.S. tariffs on China remain higher than on other nations, and efforts to rally global trade restrictions on China could jeopardize a lasting ceasefire.

Tai Hui of J.P. Morgan Asset Management noted the tariff cuts exceeded expectations, reflecting both sides’ recognition that tariffs harm global growth. However, he cautioned that 90 days may not suffice for a comprehensive agreement, though it maintains negotiation momentum.

Investors await clarity on other trade terms, including China’s rare earth export restrictions.

Global hits:

• Lutnick says 10% baseline tariff will stick around for “foreseeable future”.

• China’s factory-gate deflation deepens as trade war bites. On the other hand, exports surge as shipments to Southeast Asian countries offset plunge in U.S. trade.

• India and Pakistan both agree to a Trump-brokered ceasefire.

Controversial: Bill Gates warns Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts will cause ‘millions of deaths’. Also, Trump poised to accept Qatar jet gift as Air Force One.

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 5,659.91 (-0.071%)
DJIA 41,249.38 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ 17,928.92 (+0.0043%)
BRENT CRUDE 64.03 (+0.14%)
* Prices as of May 12th, 12:20 AM UTC

Markets Brace for Key Inflation Data, Trade Developments, and Big Earnings Week

Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:

Monday, May 12

• Monthly Federal Budget (April): Offers a snapshot of U.S. fiscal health and debt trends.

• Fed Speaker: Gov. Adriana Kugler delivers remarks.

• Earnings Reports: Simon Property Group (SPG), NRG Energy (NRG), and Monday.com (MNDY)

Tuesday, May 13

• Inflation Watch: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April and NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 

• Earnings Reports: JD.com (JD), On Holding (ONON), and Tencent Music Entertainment (TME)

  • Oklo (OKLO) — Nuclear energy startup backed by Sam Altman, recently reported widening losses.

Wednesday, May 14

• Fed Speakers: Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Gov. Christopher Waller, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

• Earnings Reports: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Sony Group (SONY), and CoreWeave (CRWV)

Thursday, May 15

• Key Economic Data: Retail Sales (April), Producer Price Index (PPI), Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (April), Business Inventories (March), and Homebuilder Confidence (May)

• Fed Speakers: Chair Jerome Powell and Gov. Michael Barr

• Earnings Reports: Walmart (WMT), Alibaba Group (BABA), Deere & Co. (DE), and Cava Group (CAVA)

Friday, May 16

• Economic Data: Import/Export Price Index (April), Housing Starts & Building Permits (April), Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary May)

• Fed Speaker: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin

Aramco Q1 Profit Falls Amid Weak Oil Prices, Slowing Demand

Saudi Aramco reported first-quarter net income of $26 billion, down from $27.3 billion a year earlier but slightly ahead of analyst expectations of $25.3 billion. Free cash flow dropped to $19.2 billion from $22.8 billion in Q1 2024. The decline highlights ongoing pressure on the oil giant’s financials as crude prices remain weak and global demand softens amid trade headwinds.

💵 Personal Finance

How to be a day trader - Part XI

Avoiding Common Day Trading Mistakes

Day trading is unforgiving, and common mistakes can derail even seasoned traders. Here are a few to avoid:

• Overtrading—taking too many trades out of boredom or greed—drains capital through fees and poor decisions.

• Chasing losses by doubling down on bad trades often compounds damage; instead, stick to predefined risk limits.

• Ignoring stop-loss orders exposes traders to unexpected market gaps, while overleveraging amplifies losses beyond recovery.

• Trading without a plan leads to impulsive moves, so always define entry, exit, and risk parameters before trading.

Another pitfall is neglecting market conditions—strategies that work in trending markets may fail in choppy ones.

Beginners often misread indicators or trade during volatile news events, leading to slippage.

To avoid these, journal every trade to identify patterns, limit daily trades, and practice in demo accounts. Regularly review performance to catch bad habits early. Discipline and preparation are key: by sidestepping these errors, traders can protect their capital and build sustainable success.

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👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.

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