Morning Market Download from Invincible Money

Personal finance + economics + markets

Staying on top of the markets, economics and the global issues that affect your money takes a lot of time and effort. We distill it down to a quick 5 minute read to help you make better money decisions.

EconomyADP reported private payrolls rose only 145,000 in March, which was below expectations, in a signal the economy is slowing down as a result of the Fed's rate cuts as employers slow hiring. The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) report comes out tomorrow.

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) warned that ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China could result in a loss of 2% of the world's GDP.

In a sign that consumer spending is decreasing, sales at Costco slowed last month, as people shift from buying discretionary goods to basis necessities.

NewsAmericans working fewer hours than before the pandemic, which is great for those looking to spend more time with family and do maybe go outside and workout, however, it's not so good for the economy as it has lead to 2.4 million person labor shortfall, which makes it harder to for the Fed to cool inflation.

Small businesses filing for bankruptcy at highest rate since before the pandemic and it could get worse if the banking crisis continues. Filing rates are up 73% since 2020, the highest in modern times. A new report from UBS blames rising interest rates, inflation, slowing growth and the Fed raising rates so quickly.

Coming up: new jobs market data will be released Friday and although it's been good the past 2 months, analysts fear this data will not be great, showing a tightening of the market as companies like Meta, Google and Amazon, have laid off thousands of workers.

Real EstateCommercial real estate may be the next shoe to drop. Morgan Stanley said the sector is facing a crash worse than the 2008 global financial crisis. The cause: people moving more to remote work, higher interest rates and the collapse of 2 major banks. Regional banks hold a lot of commercial loans, so that's another challenge they face.

StocksHolding stocks over bonds is not looking this bad since 2007. The equity risk premium, which is the gap between the S&P 500's earnings yield and that 10-year Treasury yield, is now 1.59%, which is a low not seen since 2007. The average gap is 3.5%. With such a small spread, investors don't see the logic behind holding more volatile stocks over just buying bonds.

Chipotle is suing Sweetgreen for trademark infringement for using the phrase "Chipotle Chicken Burrito Bowl."

As I mentioned in yesterday's video about the fall of the dollar, companies are decreasing their reliance on China. Apple announced they're building ties with Ireland, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam to build their products.

CryptoThe U.S. Treasury Department said that defi and decentralized exchanges (DEXes) need to be more regulated as they pose a thread to national security.

Bitcoin dipped and then recovered after Cobie, a popular crypto figure, tweeted the following:

ETH at 9 month high ahead of its next network upgrade called "Shapella," which will allow ETH stakers withdraw their assets.

Be a Better Investor

Top Investor Mistake to AvoidLetting emotions drive investment decisions, such as fear, greed, and panic.

Legal StuffNothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.