🎁 Retail sales surge

and DOW keeps on falling

Good morning investors! Stocks were mixed yesterday but BTC is still flying hitting new highs â€“ now above $108,000.

Today we cover:

  • US retail sales surge

  • Cocoa is getting expensive

  • DOW continues to fall

📊 Economy and News 

US Retail Sales Surge in November, Kicking Off a Strong Holiday Season


US retail sales rose 0.7% in November, beating Wall Street’s forecast of 0.6%, signaling strong consumer resilience as the holiday shopping season began. October’s sales data were also revised upward to a 0.5% increase, driven by a 2.4% rise in motor vehicle and auto parts sales and a 1.8% jump in online spending.

Mixed Signals in Broader Measures
While sales excluding autos and gas increased just 0.2%, below estimates, the control group—a key GDP input—rose 0.4%, showing underlying strength. Analysts pointed to robust vehicle sales as a primary driver while noting broad-based improvements across categories.

Cautious Optimism for 2025
Economists see a “decent” holiday season for retailers but warn that spending may slow next year. Potential tariffs, slower real income growth, and high financing costs could weigh on households, despite their current solid financial position.

Investor Focus Turns to the Fed
Investors are closely watching for updates from the Federal Reserve, as stronger-than-expected economic data could delay interest rate cuts. The Fed’s latest projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Wednesday will offer further insight into the economic trajectory and policy outlook.

Global hits:

U.S. Manufacturing Rebounds Slightly in November, Aerospace Weakness Persists

U.S. manufacturing production rose just 0.2% in November, falling short of forecasts for a 0.5% rebound, according to Federal Reserve data. This modest gain followed a downwardly revised 0.7% decline in October.

While motor vehicle and parts output surged 3.5%, a 2.6% drop in aerospace and transportation equipment offset gains, reflecting lingering weakness despite the end of Boeing's factory worker strike. Durable goods production climbed 0.7%, driven by machinery output, but nondurable manufacturing slipped 0.3%, weighed down by apparel, petroleum, and paper products.

Industrial production overall fell 0.1% in November and 0.9% year-over-year. Mining output dropped 0.9%, while utilities production declined 1.3%, impacted by mild temperatures.

Capacity utilization in the industrial sector fell to 76.8%, below its long-term average, while manufacturing capacity rose slightly to 76.0%.

Despite near-term struggles, lower interest rates could support manufacturing growth in 2024.

CoCoCocoa: The price of chocolate’s key ingredient has skyrocketed this year, prompting analysts to issue fresh warnings about extreme price volatility. Cocoa futures for March delivery in New York traded 1% higher at $11,938 per metric ton at around 7:10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, notching yet another record high. It comes amid renewed concerns over adverse weather conditions and supply tightness in West Africa, home to around three-quarters of the world’s cocoa production.

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 6,050.61 (-0.39%)
DJIA 43,449.90 (-0.61%)
NASDAQ 20,109.06 (-0.32%)
BRENT CRUDE 73.33 (-0.60%)
* Prices as of Dec 18th, 12:20 AM UTC

DOW keeps on falling, hitting new records

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just had its longest losing streak since the Jimmy Carter era, having fallen for nine consecutive days as of yesterday.

The Dow's losing streak began shortly after it surpassed the 45,000 milestone earlier this month, an anomaly as the broader market continues to perform well.

The losses reflect a shift toward technology stocks and away from traditional "old-economy" sectors that surged in November following Donald Trump's reelection. These sectors, which dominate the Dow, have struggled despite the broader tech rally.

Interestingly, Nvidia, a recent tech addition to the Dow, has also faced challenges, entering correction territory on Monday. Meanwhile, Tesla gained ground on Tuesday jumping +3.65%, though Broadcom slid -3.9%.

Good news: Hidden ticket fees and vacation rental charges banned in America. This does not limit what sellers can charge for a product or service. Instead, it requires businesses to display the total price, including all additional fees, more prominently than other pricing information.

Good to know: Alphabet-owned Waymo says it will begin testing its robotaxis in Tokyo, Japan in early 2025.. Also, Grubhub to pay $25 million in FTC settlement over harmful practices against diners, workers.

Surprising: Starbucks union votes to authorize strike ahead of this year’s last scheduled bargaining session. Elsewhere, Salesforce will hire 2,000 people to sell AI products.

đŸ’” Personal Finance

Planning for Life’s Uncertainties: Lessons in Financial Preparedness

Life is full of surprises, and while we focus on our daily responsibilities—work, family, or leisure—the thought of eventualities like death or financial emergencies often takes a backseat. However, planning for these realities is essential to avoid regrets later. Here are some common regrets people face when it comes to financial planning:

1. Lack of Savings for Goals

Many dream of buying a house, traveling, or upgrading their lifestyle. Yet, emergencies can derail these plans, leaving one wishing they had saved more diligently to fulfill these aspirations without compromise.

2. Neglecting Retirement Savings

Failing to prepare for retirement can lead to financial strain in your later years. With no regular income and rising medical expenses, inadequate retirement funds often become a burden. Early planning can help ensure a comfortable and stress-free post-retirement life.

3. Insufficient Health Coverage

Health issues are inevitable, and relying solely on basic health insurance might not suffice for critical illnesses, which come with high treatment costs. A critical illness plan can complement your health insurance, offering financial relief in times of need.

4. Delaying Term Insurance

A term insurance plan secures your family’s financial stability in your absence, covering loans and ensuring dependents are not burdened. Starting early keeps premiums affordable, as costs increase with age or health issues, often making late decisions more expensive or unattainable.

5. Missing Out on Long-Term Investments

While short-term investments like RDs and FDs are useful for immediate goals, long-term investments are crucial for major life objectives like homeownership or a child’s education. Options like equity funds or ULIPs not only help build wealth but can also provide tax benefits, making them a wise choice for future financial security.

Effective financial planning ensures that life's uncertainties don't catch you unprepared. Prioritize savings, insurance, and investments today to secure a stable and fulfilling tomorrow.

💰 Be a Better Investor

"Fortune sides with him who dares."

Virgil

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Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.