Good morning investors! Stocks fell broadly on Thursday, with the S&P 500 sliding for a fifth day in a row.
Fun fact: Brent crude is priced using blends from the North Sea fields named Brent, not the oil company.
Today we cover:
Jobless claims jump
Us-EU deal
Earnings
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📊 Economy and News
Jobless claims rise, labor market cools a touch
Initial jobless claims came in at 235,000 for the week, up from 224,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
Continuing claims were 1.88 million. The four-week average edged higher, a small step toward looser labor conditions.
Global hits:
Freddie Mac reports 30-year mortgage rate unchanged at 6.58%.
India seeks to boost exports to Russia, strengthen bilateral ties.
Asia’s wealthy investors seek more crypto in portfolios.
The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index moderated in August, with new orders negative and shipments softer in the 8:30 AM ET release. The report cited weaker demand and slower hiring plans. Markets viewed it as consistent with a cooling goods cycle. Philadelphia Fed and Reuters
Home supply: Existing-home sales rose 2 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million. The median existing-home sale price rose 0.2 percent from July 2024 to $422,400 — the highest July on record and the 25th straight month of year-over-year price increases. The inventory of unsold existing homes rose 0.6 percent from June to 1.55 million at the end of July, the equivalent of 4.6 months’ supply at the current sales pace. That’s the highest level in five years.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a significant keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 22, 2025, likely his last as chair, amid a turbulent period for the Fed.
The speech, titled “Economic Outlook and Framework Review,” will address broad economic conditions and the Fed’s long-term policy goals.
Wall Street anticipates Powell may signal a potential September rate cut, though he is expected to remain cautious and data-dependent, avoiding firm commitments.
The Fed faces political pressure from President Trump, who has criticized Powell and pushed for lower interest rates, alongside controversies like attacks on Fed Governor Lisa Cook and the Fed’s headquarters renovation.
Powell may emphasize the Fed’s independence while navigating these distractions. The speech will also likely revisit the Fed’s 2020 flexible average inflation targeting framework, with expectations of a shift back to preemptive inflation control. Key points to watch include Powell’s views on the labor market, inflation, and tariffs, as markets seek cues on the Fed’s policy trajectory.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,370.17 (-0.40%)
DJIA 44,785.50 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ 21,100.34 (-0.34%)
BRENT CRUDE 67.53 (+1.24%)
* Prices as of Aug 22nd, 12:20 AM UTC
U.S. and EU Announce Trade Framework Details
U.S. President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a trade deal in Turnberry, Scotland. The latest update clarifies tariff structures, with the U.S. applying the higher of its Most Favored Nation (MFN) rate or 15% on EU goods. From Sept. 1, MFN duties will cover select goods like cork, aircraft, and generic pharmaceuticals.
EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic called it the “most favorable” U.S. trade deal, emphasizing future growth in economic ties. The EU will eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and boost purchases of U.S. seafood, agriculture, and military equipment. However, the EU’s Digital Services Act and wine/spirits sectors remain outside the agreement.
Autos: A conditional 15% tariff on EU autos and parts, down from 27.5%, applies if the EU reduces industrial duties.
Pharma: Tariffs capped at 15%, with MFN pricing for generics, following Trump’s push to lower U.S. drug prices.
The deal has sparked debate, with European leaders previously calling it unbalanced. The EU’s investment and energy pledges are described as “intended,” raising questions about their feasibility.
Earnings: Walmart raised its full-year earnings and sales outlook as its online business posted another quarter of double-digit gains, even as the company said costs are rising from higher tariffs. The big-box retailer topped Wall Street’s quarterly sales estimates but fell short of earnings expectations, the first time it missed on quarterly earnings since May 2022.
Workday’s revenue and earnings for the latest quarter surpassed expectations. The cloud software vendor’s forecast was inline with estimates. Moreover, it has agreed to acquire Paradox, a company with artificial intelligence software for recruiting.
Legal trouble: Justice Department signals investigation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Elsewhere, Tesla is facing an investigation from federal safety regulators into whether it delayed notifying the government about crashes involving its driver assistance technology..
💵 Personal Finance
5 Steps to Prepare for a Mortgage Refinance
With mortgage rates declining to a 10-month low in August 2025, and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut looming, homeowners with high interest rates should prepare to refinance.
Here are a few steps worth remembering:
Check Your Credit Reports
Pull reports from Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion via annualcreditreport.com to review your credit score. Fix errors early by contacting creditors and bureaus, as this can improve rate quotes.Protect Your Credit Score
Avoid new credit applications, large purchases, or late payments to maintain a high score, which secures better loan terms.Estimate Home Equity
Calculate your home equity; 20% or more equity typically yields better loan terms, per Bankrate.Gather Essential Documents
Collect proof of homeowners insurance, income, assets, your mortgage statement, property deed, tax statement, and two years of employment history. Save for upfront costs like appraisals ($300-$500) and credit checks (<$30).Research Lenders Early
Investigate lenders and loan options in advance. Start with your current lender for a streamlined process, then compare rates and terms. Consider joining lender contact lists for timely refinance alerts.
Refinancing can be repeated if rates drop further, but ensure the rate gap justifies the costs, Gumbinger advises.
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.