Good morning investors! Bitcoin recovered a bit over the weekend and this week may turn out to be another week full of surprises.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
India-US deal
DOW hits a new high
📊 Economy and News
What to Expect This Week
Here’s what you need to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, February 9
Fed speakers: Gov. Stephen Miran, Gov. Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
Key earnings: Apollo Global Management (APO), Onsemi (ON), Loews (L), Principal Financial (PFG).
Tuesday, February 10
Major data: December retail sales (holiday spending check).
Other data: NFIB small business optimism (Dec), Employment cost index (Q4), Import price index (Dec), Business inventories (Nov).
Fed speaker: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.
Key earnings: Coca-Cola (KO), AstraZeneca (AZN), Gilead Sciences (GILD), BP (BP), CVS Health (CVS), Spotify (SPOT), Duke Energy (DUK), Marriott (MAR), Ferrari (RACE), Ecolab (ECL), Robinhood (HOOD), Cloudflare (NET), Ford Motor (F), Honda Motor (HMC), Barclays (BCS).
Wednesday, February 11
Major data: January employment report (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment; delayed from prior week).
Fed speaker: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.
Other data: Monthly U.S. federal budget (Jan).
Key earnings: Cisco (CSCO – AI demand insights), McDonald’s (MCD), T-Mobile (TMUS), AppLovin (APP), Shopify (SHOP).
Thursday, February 12
Data: Existing-home sales (Jan).
Fed speaker: Gov. Stephen Miran.
Other data: Initial jobless claims (week ending Feb. 7).
Key earnings: Applied Materials (AMAT), Arista Networks (ANET), Unilever (UL), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Brookfield (BN), Airbnb (ABNB), Coinbase Global (COIN – crypto spotlight).
Friday, February 13
Major data: January CPI inflation report (headline & core; delayed).
Key earnings: Enbridge (ENB), Moderna (MRNA).
Overall, watch for labor/inflation signals influencing Fed rate expectations, consumer spending trends, and sector insights from tech (AI), consumer staples, autos, travel, pharma, and crypto stocks.
Global hits:
UBS raises its Eurozone 2026 growth forecast.
Investors look beyond US hedge funds for the first time since 2023.
Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s ruling LDP seen winning outright majority in snap election.
US-India Interim Trade Framework
The US and India released an interim trade framework advancing toward a broader bilateral agreement. Key points:
US reduces tariffs on most Indian goods to 18% (from up to 50%, including removal of a 25% punitive tariff tied to Russian oil purchases).
President Trump issued an executive order rescinding the extra 25% duty after India committed to halting direct/indirect imports of Russian oil, with US monitoring for compliance.
India agrees to eliminate/reduce tariffs on US industrial goods and various agricultural/food products (e.g., animal feed, tree nuts, soybean oil, wine/spirits).
India intends to purchase $500 billion in US goods over five years, including energy (oil/gas), aircraft/parts, technology (e.g., GPUs for AI/data centers), precious metals, and coking coal.
India protects sensitive agriculture/dairy sectors; no direct allowance for GM products.
Both sides aim to address non-tariff barriers and finalize a formal deal by March 2026, amid efforts to diversify supply chains and counter China.
Trade Minister Piyush Goyal called it a win for Indian exporters (access to $30T US market), while opposition criticized it as favoring US terms. The deal reflects strategic realignment on energy and geopolitics.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,932.30 (+1.97%)
DJIA 50,115.67 (+2.47%)
NASDAQ 23,031.21 (+2.18%)
BRENT CRUDE 68.04(+0.74%)
* Prices as of Feb 9th, 12:20 AM UTC
The Dow Jones Hits Historic 50,000 Milestone
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,207 points (2.47%) to close at 50,115.67 — crossing 50,000 for the first time in its 129-year history, on Friday.
This rebound followed a three-day tech selloff, with the broader market rallying: the S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 6,932.30, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.18% to 23,031.21. It marked the Dow and S&P's best day since May, and the Nasdaq's since November.
The rally highlights a broadening market beyond tech and AI stocks. Investors rotated into sectors like industrials and financials — key to the price-weighted Dow. Standouts included Goldman Sachs (+4.31%) and Caterpillar (+7.06%, hitting a record high).
Experts see this as a sign of market optimism amid solid economic fundamentals, improving earnings, resilient consumer spending (led by wealthier households), and hopes for Fed rate cuts later in 2026. The Fear & Greed Index shifted to "neutral."
However, challenges persist: uneven consumer strength, geopolitical risks (including Iran turmoil, U.S.-Brussels tensions over Greenland, and Maduro's capture), potential Fed independence concerns, and warnings of market complacency or bubbles from figures like Jamie Dimon.
The milestone caps a strong recovery from a 2025 dip (below 37,000 after Trump's tariff announcements) and continues a multi-year bull run. The Dow has now broken records like 40,000 (May 2024), 45,000 (December 2024), and others in quick succession since late 2025.
Interesting: China’s Luckin Coffee is taking direct aim at Starbucks’ high-end roastery chain with a new flagship store in the country’s south that sells premium drinks.
Hims & Hers pulls copycat weight-loss pill after threats of legal action.
Surprising: Nearly a thousand Google workers sign letter urging company to divest from ICE, CBP. In other news, President Donald Trump expressed support for Nexstar’s offer to buy Tegna.
💵 Personal Finance
U.S. Home Affordability Far from 2019 Levels in 2026
Home affordability has worsened significantly since 2019. Mortgage payments on a median-priced home now consume over 30% of median household income, up from about 21% in 2019, due to surging home prices and mortgage rates nearly doubling since early 2022 (currently around 6.1-6.2% for 30-year fixed as of early February 2026).
According to Realtor.com, restoring 2019 affordability would require unrealistic changes:
Median household income jumping 56% to $132,171 (from $84,763), or
Mortgage rates dropping to 2.65%.
Neither is likely soon. Incomes have grown only ~17% in real terms over the past 20 years, and forecasts keep rates near 6% through 2026, with modest affordability improvements expected as payments dip slightly below 30% of income in some projections.
The core issue is a chronic housing shortage of nearly 4 million homes, limiting supply despite demand. Experts say boosting construction and easing zoning/permitting rules is essential for real relief—more effective than lower rates or subsidies alone. Progress varies by region, with faster supply gains possible in the South than in the Northeast or Midwest.
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