Good morning investors! Investors don’t seem confident as fear controls the market.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
US-China meeting
The economy to slow?
📊 Economy and News
What to Expect this Week
Here’s what you need to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, September 21
Fed Speakers Kick Off
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at a London forum starting 6:30 a.m. (livestream available). Other policymakers scheduled later in the week include New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. Markets will parse their comments for clues on further tightening.
Economic Data: Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due.
Tuesday, September 22
AutoZone Earnings
AutoZone (AZO) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results before the open, with a conference call at 10 a.m. Analysts expect strong EPS around $54. Investors will watch for any impact from U.S.-Canada trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs on vehicles and auto parts.
Other Earnings: Thor Industries (THO) and KB Home (KBH) also report.
Fed & Data: New York Fed’s Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson speak. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is released.
Wednesday, September 23
General Mills (GIS) releases fiscal first-quarter results with a Q&A at 9 a.m. The company has previously flagged “significant consumer stress.” Consensus EPS is around $0.72.
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results before the open (call at 8:15 a.m.). After a profit surprise and raised forecast last quarter, analysts expect EPS near $0.16 on softer revenue.
Cintas (CTAS) and Paychex (PAYX) report.
Meta Connect: Meta Platforms (META) holds its developer conference. CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks at 7 p.m. (streamed). Focus will be on AI strategy and possible new smart glasses (reports suggest a camera-free version after privacy backlash).
Other: Flash PMI data offers an early read on September activity.
Thursday, September 24
Darden Restaurants (DRI) — parent of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse — reports fiscal first-quarter results before the open (call at 8:30 a.m.). Expected EPS about $2.05 (+~4% YoY) on roughly $3.2 billion revenue.
Costco Wholesale (COST) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results at 4:15 p.m., followed by a call at 5 p.m. Wall Street expects EPS of roughly $6.53–$6.55 (+11%) and revenue near $94.9 billion (+10%). Key metrics: membership renewal rates, comparable sales (already strong in preliminary figures), and margins under higher fuel and cost pressure. Some analysts warn core earnings could lag if tariff refunds are excluded.
BlackBerry (BB) reports (expected EPS ~$0.04).
Geopolitical Focus: U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Washington.
Friday, September 25
A quieter day with limited major earnings and data.
Global hits:
China keeps lending rates on hold as room for monetary easing narrows.
Hormuz oil flows hit 6-month high as U.S. mine clearance pays off.
Iran sets conditions for talks as threat of wider regional war grows.
Reminder: U.S. urges Americans to reconsider Middle East travel as Iran tensions rise.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 7,650.50 (+0.17%)
DJIA 51,682.64 (-0.18%)
NASDAQ 26,522.54 (+0.39%)
BRENT CRUDE 103.04 (-0.93%)
* Prices as of Sep 21st, 12:20 AM UTC
US-China Hold Pre-Summit Talks on Tariffs, AI and Critical Minerals
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are meeting in New York on Sunday to discuss tariffs, artificial intelligence and critical minerals. The talks aim to lay groundwork for a Sept. 24 summit in Washington between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Key topics include extending the U.S.-China tariff truce that expires Nov. 10, improving Chinese shipments of rare earths and other critical minerals, and setting possible AI guardrails. Officials are also expected to address agricultural purchases, potential Boeing aircraft deals, Taiwan, and China’s role regarding Iranian oil.
Analysts anticipate limited, tension-reducing steps rather than major breakthroughs, building on issues left over from the leaders’ May meeting in Beijing.
Interesting: Toyota estimates factory automation could cost $6.4 billion per year from 2028.
Google’s Gemini becomes latest AI model to break out and hack computer systems.
💵 Personal Finance
Citi: Hawkish Fed Risks Slowing Non-AI Economy
The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike this week to a 3.75%-4% target range signals a hawkish shift that could deepen the housing downturn and leave U.S. growth increasingly reliant on AI spending, according to Citi Research.
Chair Kevin Warsh described the move as removing accommodation, tied it to rising energy costs, and left the door open for further tightening. While Citi’s baseline still expects the Fed to pause as inflation cools and begin cutting next year, the odds of another hike as soon as October have risen.
Higher rates and yields will tighten conditions for households and most businesses. However, Citi says AI-related capital expenditure—the main growth engine—is unlikely to slow meaningfully unless equity markets correct sharply or credit spreads widen.
In contrast, housing faces further contraction from higher mortgage rates, non-tech manufacturers confront tighter margins and lower investment, and labor-market hiring is expected to weaken. As a result, the broader economy is becoming more single-engine and vulnerable to shocks.
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