Good morning investors! This week the focus will remain on the global situation.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
Oil prices
Investors shifting to jewels
📊 Economy and News
What to Expect This Week
Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, March 23
Economic data: Construction spending (January).
Key earnings: WeRide (WRD) — Chinese robotaxi provider (shares down ~30% YTD).
Light day overall.
Tuesday, March 24
Economic data: U.S. productivity revision (Q4).
Other indicators: S&P flash U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (March).
Key earnings:
GameStop (GME) — Meme stock reports quarterly results amid big price surge and investor interest.
KB Home (KBH) — Homebuilder, following reports of U.S. housing shortage (needs ~4M new homes).
Others: Core & Main (CNM), Smithfield Foods (SFD), AAR Corp. (AIR).
GameStop is the standout event here.
Wednesday, March 25
Economic data: Import price index (February) — Key for seeing tariff effects on prices.
Key earnings:
Chewy (CHWY) — Online pet retailer (shares down significantly YTD).
Paychex (PAYX) — HR/payroll services (also down sharply YTD).
Others: Karman Holdings (KRMN), Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), Ondas (ONDS).
Import prices could shed light on inflation pressures.
Thursday, March 26
Economic data: Initial jobless claims (week ending March 21) — Gauge of labor market health.
Other: Revisions to Q4 productivity (if not fully covered earlier).
Key earnings:
Pony AI (PONY) — Chinese robotaxi firm (Uber partner, shares down ~30% YTD).
Others: Commercial Metals (CMC), Argan (AGX), BRP (DOO).
Jobless claims provide ongoing labor insights.
Friday, March 27
Economic data: Consumer sentiment (final March reading) — Crucial for gauging public reaction to Middle East conflict, rising gas prices, and tariff worries (sentiment has been muted recently).
Key earnings: Legence (LGN).
The sentiment report caps the week and could reflect broader economic mood.
Global hits:
Japan considers minesweeping in Strait of Hormuz after a potential ceasefire.
China pledges more balanced trade and further opening of the economy after record surplus.
Oil jumps: Oil prices rose after Iran threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely in response to President Donald Trump’s ultimatum on the restoration of oil traffic through the critical waterway. Goldman Sachs on Friday suggested that triple digit prices could last through 2027.
Reminder: ICE agents will be deployed to U.S. airports today.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,506.48 (-1.51%)
DJIA 45,577.47 (-0.96%)
NASDAQ 21,647.61 (-2.01%)
BRENT CRUDE 113.14 (-0.37%)
* Prices as of Ma 23rd, 12:20 AM UTC
Wealthy Investors Shift to Jewelry, Especially Colored Gemstones, Amid Uncertainty
Wealthy consumers are increasingly viewing jewelry as a tangible investment amid market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and inflation. High gold prices—hovering above $4,500 per ounce in March 2026—bolster this trend, enhancing jewelry's appeal as a portable store of value.
Experts note a "flight to safety" in hard luxury assets like branded pieces from Cartier, Tiffany & Co., Van Cleef & Arpels, and Bulgari, which show strong resale performance compared to softer luxury items like handbags.
Colored gemstones—rubies, sapphires, emeralds, and rare varieties like Paraiba tourmaline—are surging in popularity as alternatives to diamonds. A standout example: a Tiffany & Co. Paraiba tourmaline necklace sold for $4.2 million at Christie's in December 2025, 10 times its low estimate, signaling strong collector demand.
These natural gems offer uniqueness, scarcity, and potential appreciation, with auction prices often exceeding estimates. Fashion trends favor vibrant colors, and younger buyers (millennials and Gen Z) now drive significant luxury purchases.
While jewelry provides emotional prestige and long-term resilience, experts caution it's not as liquid as stocks and performs best in stable economic conditions. Still, as uncertainty persists, demand for these "passion investments" is expected to grow.
Interesting: FedEx has started delivering ‘promotion-ready’ AI training to over 400,000 workers.
Walmart digital price labels are coming to every store shelf in U.S. by end of 2026.
💵 Personal Finance
Private Credit Faces Pockets of Stress — But No Widespread Crisis, Advisors Say
Private credit — direct loans to companies via investment funds — has boomed to ~$1.7 trillion (up from $500B a decade ago), offering higher yields than public bonds in exchange for illiquidity, higher fees, and risk. Growth surged post-2008 as banks retreated from riskier lending.
The market is diverse, but headlines highlight concerns: high redemption requests in some semi-liquid funds (e.g., interval funds, non-traded BDCs), where investors can withdraw quarterly (often capped at ~5% of assets). Requests have surged as yields fell with easing rates since 2022, prompting profit-taking.
Experts note these pressures reflect a maturing market — shifting from high returns to more competition — rather than systemic failure. Most funds remain cash-generative with diverse portfolios.
"Some caution is reasonable, but the idea that private credit is on the verge of widespread trouble is overstated," said CFP Crystal Cox of Wealthspire Advisors. "What’s really happening is the shift from a young, high-return market to a more competitive, mature one where manager selection and underwriting discipline matter a lot more."
Defaults may rise in pockets, especially direct lending to software/AI-adjacent sectors (disrupted by AI innovation; software ~26% of some portfolios). Morgan Stanley forecasts direct lending defaults climbing to 8% (from 5.6%), driven by AI impacts — not a broad meltdown.
For most investors, limit exposure to ~5% of portfolio to balance benefits and risks (credit/liquidity concentration).
Retail access includes ETFs, public BDCs (liquid), or semi-liquid funds (with gates to manage outflows). Institutional investors dominate (~80%).
Bottom line: Pockets of weakness (e.g., redemption caps, sector-specific defaults) exist and warrant caution — particularly in software-heavy funds — but don't signal broad collapse. Focus on strong managers and modest allocation.
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