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Good morning investors! The market was mixed last week as we await more earnings.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
What UBS thinks
Prices are rising
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📊 Economy and News
What to Expect in Markets This Week
Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, August 11, 2025
Key Earnings: Monday.com, Oklo
Tuesday, August 12, 2025
Economic Data: Consumer Price Index (July), Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (July), NFIB Small Business Optimism (July)
Federal Reserve Activity: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is scheduled to deliver remarks, potentially providing clarity on the Fed’s interest rate outlook ahead of the September meeting.
Key Earnings: CoreWeave, Circle Internet Group, Cava Group (CAVA), Smithfield Foods
Wednesday, August 13, 2025
Federal Reserve Activity: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are set to speak, offering further insight into the Federal Reserve’s thinking on inflation and interest rates.
Key Earnings: Cisco Systems
Thursday, August 14, 2025
Economic Data: Producer Price Index (July), Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Aug. 9)
Federal Reserve Activity: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is scheduled to speak again, potentially elaborating on inflation data and rate cut discussions.
Key Earnings: Applied Materials, Deere, JD.com
Friday, August 15, 2025
Economic Data: U.S. Retail Sales (July), Consumer Sentiment - Preliminary (August), Import/Export Price Index (July), Industrial Production (July), Capacity Utilization (July), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (August)
Global hits:
Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation down to 13.9% in July.
Bank of America revises JPY outlook amid U.S. labor data and Japan politics.
Global trade is stagnating, and fresh data suggests the slowdown may deepen.
Exciting: Trump is planning a massive IPO of the government’s mortgage companies.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,389.45 (+0.78%)
DJIA 44,175.61 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ 21,450.02 (+0.98%)
BRENT CRUDE 65.99 (-0.90%)
* Prices as of Aug 11th, 12:20 AM UTC
UBS Warns August Market Dip Likely as U.S. Growth Slows
UBS strategist Andrew Garthwaite expects August to be a down month for stocks due to weakening U.S. economic growth.
Implied volatility is near its lower range, signaling risk of reversal. Also, U.S. economic data is deteriorating; job market shows signs of slowdown.
Non-farm payrolls are projected to average just 48K in Q4, possibly turning negative.
Despite a 30% rebound since April, market momentum may pause as the Fed isn’t expected to cut rates until September. We must also mention that historically, August and September are seasonally weak months for equities.
Good to know: Tesla has shut down its in-house AI supercomputer project, Dojo, signaling a shift away from developing custom AI chips. This move is expected to benefit chipmakers Nvidia and AMD, as Tesla will now rely more heavily on their GPUs for AI training.
Also, SoftBank has selected investment banks to help organize a potential initial public offering in the United States for its Japanese payments app operator PayPay.
Nvidia vs. China: Nvidia responded to Chinese state media allegations that its H20 AI chips pose a national security risk, with claims of being technologically inferior and containing a potential "backdoor" for remote shutdown. Nvidia denied these accusations, emphasizing that its chips do not have such vulnerabilities and that cybersecurity is a priority.
Also, Nvidia and AMD will pay 15% of China chip sales revenues to the U.S. government in exchange for permission to sell chips to the country.
💵 Personal Finance
Rising Grocery Prices Stress Americans, Prompt Shopping Changes
Grocery prices are stressing Americans, with 53% citing food costs as a major concern and 33% as a minor stress.
Inflation on groceries has slowed to 2.4% over the past year, but prices for items like eggs and beef remain high.
Companies like Kroger and Mondelez report cautious spending, with sales of non-essential items like snacks dropping. Economists warn that tariffs and dwindling inventories could further accelerate inflation, impacting consumer confidence and the broader economy.
Actionable Tips to Manage Rising Grocery Costs:
Use Coupons and Promotions: Check store apps or websites for discounts and loyalty programs to save on essentials.
Opt for Store Brands: Choose cheaper private-label products, which are often similar in quality to name brands.
Plan Meals and Shop Smart: Make a weekly meal plan and stick to a list to avoid impulse buys.
Buy in Bulk for Staples: Purchase non-perishable items like rice or canned goods in bulk to save over time.
Cook at Home: Prepare more meals at home to reduce reliance on costly takeout or dining out.
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.