🪔 What to expect this week

Good morning investors! May was a great month for the market but experts think June could bring some trouble.

Today we cover:

• Consumer spending rises

• What to expect this week

• What investors are doing

📊 Economy and News 

U.S. Consumer Spending Rises Slightly in April Amid Economic Uncertainty

U.S. consumer spending spending grew by 0.2% in April, down from 0.7% in March, as households increased savings to 4.9%—a one-year high—amid economic uncertainty driven by shifting tariff policies. Spending was driven by services like housing, utilities, and healthcare, while goods purchases, including vehicles and clothing, declined.

Inflation remained subdued, with the PCE Price Index up 0.1% and core PCE inflation at 2.5% annually, the lowest since March 2021. However, economists warn that tariffs, temporarily reinstated after a U.S. trade court ruling, could fuel price increases later this year. The Federal Reserve, maintaining rates at 4.25%-4.50%, is unlikely to cut rates soon, with markets eyeing September for potential easing.

The goods trade deficit shrank 46.0% to $87.6 billion in April as imports fell sharply, potentially boosting GDP after a 0.2% economic contraction in Q1. However, stagnant inventories may temper this growth.

Global hits:

• Morgan Stanley cuts U.S. immigration forecast, citing slower labor force growth.

• German inflation eases to 2.1% in May.

• OPEC+ plans to boost output by 411,000 barrels per day for July to regain market share and address over-production. Moreover, Goldman Sachs sees OPEC+ raising oil output by 0.41 mb/d in August.

GDPs: Portugal’s economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter from the previous three months, when it grew 1.4%. Turkey’s economy grew 2% in the first quarter of the year, falling short of expectations. The Indian government reported a GDP growth of 7.4% year-on-year, significantly above the 6.7% estimated. However, India’s 2024-25 fiscal deficit came slightly over target. Gross domestic product in Brazil rose 1.4% in the January-to-March period from the previous quarter. This has forced Moody’s to lower Brazil outlook to stable from positive. Lastly, Canada first-quarter GDP expands by 2.2% annualized rate, beating estimates..

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 5,911.69 (-0.0081%)
DJIA 42,270.07 (+0.13%)
NASDAQ 19,113.77 (-0.32%)
BRENT CRUDE 64.28 (+2.39%)
* Prices as of Jun 2nd, 12:20 AM UTC

What to Expect this Week

Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:

Monday, June 2

• Economic Data: S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI (May), ISM Manufacturing PMI (May), Construction Spending (April)

• Federal Reserve: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

• Earnings:, Campbell’s (CPB) Science Applications International (SAIC)

Tuesday, June 3

• Economic Data: Factory Orders (April), Job Openings (April)

• Federal Reserve: Speeches by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

• Earnings: CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Dollar General (DG), NIO (NIO)

Wednesday, June 4

• Economic Data: ADP Employment (May), S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (May), ISM Services PMI (May), Federal Reserve Beige Book

• Federal Reserve: Speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

• Earnings: Dollar Tree (DLTR), Descartes Systems Group (DSGX), Thor Industries (THO)

Thursday, June 5

• Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending May 31), U.S. Trade Deficit (April), U.S. Productivity - First Revision (Q1) – U.S. trade deficit report comes amid tariff-driven import surges, impacting supply chains and economic growth projections.

• Federal Reserve: Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker

• Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Rubrik (RBRK) –  Broadcom’s report follows Nvidia’s AI-driven success, with Broadcom projecting AI revenue growth.

Friday, June 6

• Economic Data: U.S. Employment Report (May), Consumer Credit (April) – The May U.S. jobs report, due Friday, follows a strong April with a steady 4.2% unemployment rate.

• Federal Reserve: No scheduled speeches

• Earnings: No major earnings reports scheduled

Looking at treasuries? Investors are favoring short-term Treasuries, like the 3-month T-Bill yielding 4.3%, over volatile long-term bonds, which have seen negative performance amid inflation and deficit concerns. ETFs like iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 T-Bill ETF (BIL) have attracted over $25 billion in 2025, with experts advising against bonds with durations over seven years and recommending diversification into bonds and international equities, such as European (up 25%) and Japanese (up 10%) ETFs, to balance portfolios.

💵 Personal Finance

Top Cities for Recent Graduates Seeking Affordable Housing and Jobs

Recent graduates facing a tough job market and high rental costs should consider relocating to affordable cities with strong labor markets, like Austin (18.9% rent-to-income ratio, 3.6% unemployment), Raleigh (20.0%, 3.3%), and Minneapolis (19.7%, 3.7%).

Here’s a list of top names according to Realtor.com, with information that could help make graduates make the right call:

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👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.

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