What to expect this week

Together with SpyGlass Indicator

Good morning investors! US and Iran continue to be at loggerheads as investors focus on earnings.

Today we cover:

📊 Economy and News

Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:

Monday, August 31

The week opens with a relatively light U.S. calendar as markets digest last week’s mixed signals—weekly gains in the major indexes, hotter inflation readings, and rising rate-hike odds after Warsh’s speech.

Tuesday, September 1

A data-heavy morning and major AI/tech earnings after the close.

Economic releases: ISM Manufacturing PMI for August (previous reading near 55.6); Construction Spending for July; JOLTS Job Openings for July (previous near 7.36 million); Final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI.

Earnings: Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, GitLab, Credo Technology, and NIO.

Wednesday, September 2

Labor-market clues, the Fed’s Beige Book, and a cluster of consumer and AI-related earnings.

Economic releases: ADP National Employment Report for August (8:15 a.m. ET); Factory Orders for July (10:00 a.m. ET); Federal Reserve Beige Book (2:00 p.m. ET); Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment data.

Earnings: Brown-Forman, Five Below, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Broadcom.

Thursday, September 3

Weekly labor data, trade figures, services-sector activity, and a wave of consumer-facing reports plus a high-profile Tesla event.

Economic releases: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug. 29); International Trade in Goods and Services for July; Revised Productivity and Costs for Q2; ISM Services PMI for August.

Earnings: Campbell’s, Lululemon Athletica, Victoria’s Secret, PVH, and Oxford Industries.

Others: Tesla (TSLA) Cybercab event in Austin – expected updates on the autonomous-taxi strategy.

Friday, September 4

Economic release: Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and labor-force participation for August.

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 7,711.76 (-0.25%)
DJIA 53,559.99 (-0.018%)
NASDAQ 26,402.42 (-0.52%)
BRENT CRUDE 89.72 (+1.64%)
* Prices as of Aug 31st, 12:20 AM UTC

Tech rebounded strongly last week, but the sustainability of the AI-driven rally remains uncertain.

“It’s all about artificial intelligence,” said Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar. “That’s going to continue through next week as investors reorient their AI positions.”

August has been a clear win for tech. With one session left, the Nasdaq is up more than 4%, the S&P 500 more than 3%, and the Dow about 2%. Software (IGV) has surged over 15%, the Magnificent Seven (MAGS) more than 4%, and cybersecurity (CIBR) over 7%.

Semiconductors lag after July’s sharp pullback, though Nvidia’s strong results have renewed interest. Nvidia itself rose 8.7% on the results but still trades under its May 14 all-time high of $236.54. Traders at Susquehanna noted that Nvidia alone pushed the S&P 500 into positive territory even as roughly 70% of its components fell—highlighting how dependent the market remains on the chip giant. However, Broadcom’s report on Wednesday could either reinforce or dent that optimism.

💵 Personal Finance

Long-term government bond yields have climbed sharply worldwide, raising borrowing costs for governments, companies, and households. In the U.S., the 30-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.34% this month — its highest since 2007 — before a Treasury intervention brought only temporary relief.

The rise stems from investor worries over persistent inflation, the federal deficit (running near 6% of GDP), and the national debt crossing $40 trillion. Heavy corporate bond issuance by tech firms funding AI infrastructure is also competing for buyers and pushing government yields higher.

Recently, the Treasury said it would at least double its regular buybacks of longer-dated debt. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the move a signal that yields “don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals.”

Treasury yields set the benchmark for consumer loans. Higher rates mean more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. The average 30-year mortgage has stayed above 6% for four years, keeping homeownership harder to reach. Credit-card and personal-loan rates have also climbed, squeezing households already dealing with elevated prices.

“It’s pretty scary for Main Street,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “People check the mortgage rates constantly… those rates go up, too.”

Without a meaningful cut in the deficit or a sharp economic slowdown, elevated borrowing costs are likely to persist. For savers, however, the higher yields offer more attractive fixed-income options in retirement portfolios than seen in recent years.

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