🪔 What to expect this week

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Good morning investors! The market is expected to throw some more surprises this week with the war being a concern as Trump appears to be shifting focus.

Today we cover:

• What’s happening this week

• What next?

• Avoiding investment scams.

📊 Economy and News 

What to expect this week

This week, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, and the “dot plot” projections will draw attention, alongside February retail sales data amid tariff concerns.

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% on Wednesday, following a 2024 rate cut spree, with Powell’s press conference potentially swaying markets.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang kicks off the GTC conference Tuesday, spotlighting AI chip demand as tech stocks falter.

Earnings from Micron, Nike, FedEx, and others like Accenture, Xpeng, and Darden Restaurants unfold throughout the week, offering insights into consumer and tech trends.

Housing data, including homebuilder confidence and existing home sales, will also shed light on the sluggish real estate market.

Key Dates:

• Monday: Retail sales, homebuilder confidence, SAIC earnings

• Tuesday: Housing starts, Nvidia keynote, XPeng earnings

• Wednesday: Fed decision, Powell speaks, General Mills earnings

• Thursday: Jobless claims, Nike and Micron earnings

• Friday: Fed comments resume, Carnival earnings

Global hits:

• Saudi Arabia’s S&P rating upgraded to ’A+’ from ’A’ amid economic transformation.

• Greece’s ratings upgraded to investment grade by Moody’s.

• South Korea asks the U.S. for tariff exemption.

Exciting: Gold prices reached $3,000 an ounce for the first time in history Friday, boosted by demand for safe-haven assets as investors fret about President Donald Trump’s tariffs and geopolitics. Prices hit a record $3,005 before paring those gains a bit to just under $3,000..

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 5,638.94 (+2.13%)
DJIA 41,488.19 (+1.65%)
NASDAQ 17,754.09 (+2.61%)
BRENT CRUDE 70.58 (+1.32%)
* Prices as of Mar 16th, 12:20 AM UTC

What happens after a correction?

On Thursday, an event that seemed almost unimaginable at the start of the year unfolded: the S&P 500 ended the day in correction territory, having dropped over 10% from its record high set just over three weeks ago in February. As of March 14, 2025, the SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, closed at 559.049 USD, down from its year-high of 613.23 USD.

Meanwhile, the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite slid even further, down 14% from its peak in December. Recent jitters over President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from major trading partners have shaken investor sentiment, driving stocks downward. On Thursday, Trump upped the ante by threatening a 200% tariff on Champagne and other European spirits, adding fuel to the market’s unease.

While a correction often stokes fears of deeper losses, historical trends offer some reassurance.

According to Ryan Detrick of the Carson Group, the S&P 500 typically bounces back after hitting this rough patch, averaging a 3.1% gain one month later, with returns climbing to 6.5% after three months and 12% after six.

A year out, the index has historically posted an average return of 14.7%, based on data stretching back to 1950. However, these figures apply only to corrections, not bear markets—defined as a 20% plunge from a recent high.

The S&P 500’s last bear market struck in 2022, triggered by the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes to curb inflation. Since 1950, the index has endured 11 bear markets, per Detrick’s analysis. Still, he cautions that a new bear market now would be unusual. “That would be three bears in 5 years, something we’ve never seen before,” he noted in an X post, adding that the shortest prior span between three bear markets was 6.9 years, from 1966 to 1973.

Interesting: With U.S. debt now at $35.3 trillion, the cost of paying the interest on all that borrowing has soared recently and now averages out to $3 billion a day. With interest expense on the rise, some say it makes sense why the government cuts.

💵 Personal Finance

Your Guide to Avoiding Investment Scams

In 2024, investment scams cost consumers $5.7 billion, a 24% jump from 2023, outpacing all other fraud types, per the Federal Trade Commission. With 79% of reported victims losing an average of $9,000, and unreported cases likely inflating the total, these schemes are a growing threat.

How Investment Scams Work

Scammers promise big returns on trendy opportunities, often using tactics like "pig-butchering"—building trust through unsolicited messages via text messages, social media, or dating apps before pitching fake investments, especially in cryptocurrency. Criminals vanish with the money once invested. AI tools like deepfakes enhance their deception, while Southeast Asian crime hubs in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar fuel global operations, often with trafficked workers. Cryptocurrency aids these frauds by enabling fast, hard-to-trace fund transfers.

Red Flags and Protection Tips

To reduce your risk, watch for these warning signs:

• Urgency: High-pressure tactics push you to act fast, claiming limited-time offers or threats like legal action or data loss.

• Unusual Payments: Requests for crypto, wire transfers, payment apps, or gift cards signal trouble.

• Isolation: Scammers discourage sharing details with others, using intimidation to silence you.

Stay cautious—there’s no foolproof shield, but recognizing these patterns can help you steer clear of costly traps.

💰 Be a Better Investor

Resources:

• Calculators

• Retirement Resources

• Dividends

• Make Money in Retirement

• Side Hustle Ideas

• Stock Deep Dives

• Investing 101 videos

👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.

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