Good morning investors! Fear continues to rule as investors seem to be looking for safe bets.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
US-Iran war continues
Retail investors are moving away
📊 Economy and News
What to Expect This Week
Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, September 28
Light economic calendar. No major U.S. data releases or high-profile earnings scheduled.
Tuesday, September 29
Economic Data
Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) – 10:00 a.m. ET (September reading). The index slipped in August; investors will watch for any rebound or further softening in consumer sentiment after five years of above-target inflation.
JOLTS Job Openings – 10:00 a.m. ET (August data). Provides insight into labor demand.
Housing price indexes (S&P/Case-Shiller and FHFA) – around 9:00 a.m. ET (July data).
Earnings: CarMax (KMX); Carnival (CCL) ; and Vail Resorts (MTN).
Wednesday, September 30
Key Economic Data
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – 8:30 a.m. ET (August reading). The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. July showed 3.7% year-over-year (matching June). This is the first major inflation print since the Sept. 16 rate hike and will influence rate-path expectations. Core PCE will also be closely watched.
Personal income and spending (August).
ADP Employment Change (September) – 8:15 a.m. ET.
Final Q2 GDP estimate – 8:30 a.m. ET.
Earnings: Micron Technology (MU); Conagra Brands (CAG); Cal-Maine Foods (CALM); and McCormick (MKC).
Thursday, October 1
Economic Data
Initial jobless claims – 8:30 a.m. ET.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (September) – 10:00 a.m. ET.
Construction spending and final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
Earnings
Accenture (ACN); Nike (NKE); and McCormick.
Friday, October 2
September Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls) – 8:30 a.m. ET. Closely watched by markets and the Fed. August hiring came in stronger than expected but still within a low-hiring, low-firing environment. Consensus currently points to softer payroll growth around 100k with unemployment near 4.1%. Average hourly earnings will also be important.
Global hits:
South Korea tax windfall could top 50 trillion won on chip boom as trade surplus hits a record $23B.
Trump rejects Iran deal to reopen Hormuz; Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continue.
China, U.S. agree to $30 billion tariff cut, launch AI dialogue, and buy 10 million tons of U.S. coal in 2027 and 2028.
Reminder: After years on a big buying streak, retail traders appear to have been moving to the sidelines.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 7,743.45 (+0.52%)
DJIA 51,828.62 (+0.93%)
NASDAQ 27,068.72 (+0.47%)
BRENT CRUDE 104.03 (-2.27%)
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Iran Threatens ‘Doomsday’ War but Leaves Door Open to Talks
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran is ready for a “doomsday” war with the United States while still pursuing diplomacy.
Appearing on NBC’s Meet the Press, Araghchi stated Iran is prepared to negotiate or face any challenge, including full-scale conflict. The comments follow last week’s U.N. General Assembly and come amid an ongoing war that began Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.
Iran has heavily restricted the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global oil prices and inflation. On Friday, Araghchi offered to reopen the strait and restart nuclear talks within seven days if the U.S. meets Tehran’s conditions, including an end to what it calls American aggression, the naval blockade, and the release of frozen Iranian assets.
President Trump rejected the proposal. The Wall Street Journal reported he views renewed bombing after the November midterms as likely. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Michael Waltz called Iran’s offer “cynical.”
Separately, Iran’s IRGC claimed it captured a U.S. Remus 600 underwater drone in the strait.
Interesting: Trump to have dinner with Anthropic CEO Amodei at the White House.
Boeing flags 737 Max software glitch affecting some automated approach functions.
OpenAI expands review of model behavior after more rogue agent incidents emerge.
Surprising: Berkshire Hathaway has increased its bet on a long-term recovery for the struggling U.S. housing market by nearly doubling its stake in Lennar. In other news, Apple faces $5.7 billion patent infringement verdict over iPhone and Apple Watch haptics..
💵 Personal Finance
‘Funflation’ Rises, But Americans Haven’t Stopped Spending
Americans are paying more for leisure but still increasing spending on hobbies, according to a Bank of America analysis.
Hobby-related purchases—including arts and crafts, outdoor gear for hiking, camping, and skiing—rose 7.9% year-over-year in August 2026. The number of transactions grew only 3.4%, showing people are both buying more items and spending more on each one.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ recreation index climbed 2.7% over the past year. Sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores jumped 10.7%, outpacing overall U.S. retail growth of 6%.
Experts link the trend partly to expensive travel. Jet fuel prices surged 116% and U.S. airfares rose 26.5% amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, prompting many to skip trips and redirect money to at-home or local activities.
“People may be spending more on hobbies, but are spending less on other activities the hobbies are replacing,” said University of Nottingham economics professor John Gathergood.
Older millennials spent the most on hobbies in the three months through August—more than double Gen Z, who favored cheaper options like crafts and board games. Video-game spending rose across all age groups, with even Gen Z up 20%.
💰 Be a Better Investor
“If you know how to spend less than you get, you have the philosopher’s stone.”
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