đŸȘ” What to expect this week

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Good morning investors! Trump tariffs wiped over $5 trillion off Wall Street last week and we should brace for impact as this week may contain more negative news.

Stock futures are all down about 2%. It’s going to be an ugly open again.

Good news: Oil prices are down 15% in 2 days! Interest rates also hit yearly lows.
(more on that below)

👀 In markets like this, remember the “3 Bucket Method” of diversifying your assets to protect you from volatility. Take a few minutes to watch this video. It could save you a lot of stress.

Today we cover:

  • What to expect this week

  • Oil falls

  • Is a bear market coming?

Reminder: John, Trajan and others are discussing everything from crypto to recession to dividends. A lot happening this week. Excited to join the conversation? Check our Facebook group.

📊 Economy and News 

Week Ahead: Key Economic Data and Earnings

  • Monday, April 7: 3:00 p.m. ET - Consumer Credit (February)

  • Tuesday, April 8: 6:00 a.m. ET - NFIB Small Business Index (March)

  • Wednesday, April 9: 10 a.m. ET - Wholesale Inventories final (February); 2 p.m. ET - FOMC Minutes; Earnings: Constellation Brands, Delta Air Lines

  • Thursday, April 10: 8:30 a.m. ET - CPI (March), Hourly Earnings final (March), Average Workweek final (March), Initial Claims (04/05), Treasury Budget (March); Earnings: CarMax

  • Friday, April 11: 8:30 a.m. ET - PPI (March); 10 a.m. ET - Michigan Sentiment preliminary (April); 11 a.m. ET - NY Fed President John Williams speaks; Earnings: Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Fastenal, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock

Recession or no?

Treasury Secretary Bessent said over the weekend, “I think we could see from the jobs numbers on Friday (228,000 jobs added, strongly beating expectations) that it was well above expectations that, you know, we are moving forward. So I see no reason that we have to price in a recession.”

He also hinted at tax cuts coming sooner than expected.

Global hits:

Oil slips: U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped over 6% on Friday to $62.72 a barrel, briefly dipping below $61. This follows a 6.6% drop on Thursday, pushing oil to its lowest level in over three years. Such sharp declines often signal recession fears, as they suggest weakening demand, slower economic growth, and reduced industrial activity—similar to the 2008 crash when oil fell from $147 to under $40.

Note on inflation: Energy makes up a good part of inflation since it’s a major input in everything. Oil specifically, makes up 10-15% of the CPI number, so a drop in oil prices helps bring down inflation.

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📈 Stocks

S&P 500 5.074,08 (-5.97%)
DJIA 38.314,86 (-5.50%)
NASDAQ 15.587,79 (-5.82%)
BRENT CRUDE 65.58 (-6.50%)
* Prices as of Apr 6th, 12:20 AM UTC

S&P 500 Faces Bear Market Risk Amid Tariff Turmoil

** Chart as of Saturday morning. Crypto sank more Sunday. See below.

Chart analysts are sounding the alarm as the S&P 500 teeters on the edge of joining the Nasdaq Composite in bear market territory, driven by unrelenting tariff-related pressures.

The stock market endured a brutal week, with the Nasdaq closing Friday in a bear market—defined as a drop of 20% or more from its recent peak—sitting 22% below its all-time high.

The S&P 500, hovering around 5,130 on Friday, is now 16% off its February record. Analysts warn that a failure to hold the critical support level of 5,200—the August 2024 low—could spell further trouble.

Technical Warnings and Downside Risks

JC O’Hara, chief technical strategist at Roth MKM, expressed concern over the market’s fragility.

“If traders don’t step in, we could be looking at a very rough week ahead,” he said.

Negative news could trigger a “dramatic, scary fall”, potentially pushing S&P 500 futures down to 4,850—a bear market threshold 21% below the February high—if the 5,200 support fails.

O’Hara highlighted a rare occurrence: the S&P 500 is on track for two consecutive 4% daily declines, a pattern seen during major dislocations like March 2020 and November 2008.

“Historically, this scares the masses and often leads to one more leg lower before the bottom,” he noted.

Sentiment and Capitulation

O’Hara believes the market is at a sentiment low but has yet to reach a price low signaling capitulation.

“We just need to find that point where selling exhausts itself,” he added.

Meanwhile, Oppenheimer’s Ari Wald sees signs of capitulation nearing, pointing to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surging past 40 on Friday after closing at 30 on Thursday—a level well above the 20 threshold indicating heightened fear.

“We’re close, but not out of the woods,” Wald said, suggesting a bear market could persist into 2025 with additional volatility and lower lows ahead.

Near-Term Outlook and Resistance

Wald anticipates gains will be limited over the next quarter, capped by the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average of 5,760.42—over 13% above Friday’s levels.

“The damage is done, and it’ll take time to recover,” he said.

Despite Friday’s real-time price of 505.28 for the SPY (reflecting the S&P 500), the index’s broader trajectory remains under pressure from tariff fallout, including China’s swift retaliatory 34% levies on U.S. goods.

** Silver lining: If you’re Dollar Cost Averaging and don’t need the money for years, these lower prices mean you’re buying more shares for the same amount of money.

🔐 Crypto

Bitcoin $78,348 (- 6.0%)
Ether $1,572 (-12.8%)
Solana $105 (-12.0%)
Total market cap $2.57T (-8.6%)
* Prices as of Apr 6th, 11:30 PM EST

Bitcoin Stands Strong Amid Trump, Fed, and Chaos

As stock markets crash and gold stalls, Bitcoin remains (sort of) high.

Unlike 2020’s panic, where markets tanked and risky assets bled, Bitcoin initially rose 4.5% to $84,700 while stocks fell 10.65% and gold dropped 4.8% from its $3,167 peak. The old “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” tune played again, echoing 2019 when gold’s 15% climb preceded Bitcoin’s 170% leap.

However, on Sunday the tariff fears finally hit crypto and Bitcoin was down 6% to $78k, but only -4.3% over the past 7 days. Much better than equities.

For crypto investors, a 6% down day is just another day. Maybe it’s time to consider some Bitcoin.

MacroScope sees $100K as a signal of a new long-term shift—Bitcoin stepping out as a mainstay, not just an alternative.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said over the weekend that Bitcoin is becoming a store of value, like gold. That’s a huge statement especially considering that Bitcoin would be the 6th largest global corporation if it was a company and is the 5th largest global currency, just behind the Japanese Yen.

đŸ’” Personal Finance

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💰 Be a Better Investor

"It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for."

Robert Kiyosaki

Resources:

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Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.