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đȘ What to expect this week
Hold on to your hats
Good morning investors! Trump tariffs wiped over $5 trillion off Wall Street last week and we should brace for impact as this week may contain more negative news.
Stock futures are all down about 2%. Itâs going to be an ugly open again.
Good news: Oil prices are down 15% in 2 days! Interest rates also hit yearly lows.
(more on that below)
đ In markets like this, remember the â3 Bucket Methodâ of diversifying your assets to protect you from volatility. Take a few minutes to watch this video. It could save you a lot of stress.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
Oil falls
Is a bear market coming?
Reminder: John, Trajan and others are discussing everything from crypto to recession to dividends. A lot happening this week. Excited to join the conversation? Check our Facebook group.
đ Economy and News
Week Ahead: Key Economic Data and Earnings
Monday, April 7: 3:00 p.m. ET - Consumer Credit (February)
Tuesday, April 8: 6:00 a.m. ET - NFIB Small Business Index (March)
Wednesday, April 9: 10 a.m. ET - Wholesale Inventories final (February); 2 p.m. ET - FOMC Minutes; Earnings: Constellation Brands, Delta Air Lines
Thursday, April 10: 8:30 a.m. ET - CPI (March), Hourly Earnings final (March), Average Workweek final (March), Initial Claims (04/05), Treasury Budget (March); Earnings: CarMax
Friday, April 11: 8:30 a.m. ET - PPI (March); 10 a.m. ET - Michigan Sentiment preliminary (April); 11 a.m. ET - NY Fed President John Williams speaks; Earnings: Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Fastenal, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock
Recession or no?
Treasury Secretary Bessent said over the weekend, âI think we could see from the jobs numbers on Friday (228,000 jobs added, strongly beating expectations) that it was well above expectations that, you know, we are moving forward. So I see no reason that we have to price in a recession.â
He also hinted at tax cuts coming sooner than expected.
Global hits:
Global brokerages raise recession odds; J.P.Morgan sees 60% chance.
Elon Musk urges creation of U.S.-EU free-trade zone with no tariffs as the US starts collecting Trumpâs 10% tariff.
US tariffs to hit India's GDP growth, prompt more rate cuts.
Oil slips: U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped over 6% on Friday to $62.72 a barrel, briefly dipping below $61. This follows a 6.6% drop on Thursday, pushing oil to its lowest level in over three years. Such sharp declines often signal recession fears, as they suggest weakening demand, slower economic growth, and reduced industrial activityâsimilar to the 2008 crash when oil fell from $147 to under $40.
Note on inflation: Energy makes up a good part of inflation since itâs a major input in everything. Oil specifically, makes up 10-15% of the CPI number, so a drop in oil prices helps bring down inflation.
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đ Stocks
S&P 500 5.074,08 (-5.97%)
DJIA 38.314,86 (-5.50%)
NASDAQ 15.587,79 (-5.82%)
BRENT CRUDE 65.58 (-6.50%)
* Prices as of Apr 6th, 12:20 AM UTC
S&P 500 Faces Bear Market Risk Amid Tariff Turmoil

** Chart as of Saturday morning. Crypto sank more Sunday. See below.
Chart analysts are sounding the alarm as the S&P 500 teeters on the edge of joining the Nasdaq Composite in bear market territory, driven by unrelenting tariff-related pressures.
The stock market endured a brutal week, with the Nasdaq closing Friday in a bear marketâdefined as a drop of 20% or more from its recent peakâsitting 22% below its all-time high.
The S&P 500, hovering around 5,130 on Friday, is now 16% off its February record. Analysts warn that a failure to hold the critical support level of 5,200âthe August 2024 lowâcould spell further trouble.
Technical Warnings and Downside Risks
JC OâHara, chief technical strategist at Roth MKM, expressed concern over the marketâs fragility.
âIf traders donât step in, we could be looking at a very rough week ahead,â he said.
Negative news could trigger a âdramatic, scary fallâ, potentially pushing S&P 500 futures down to 4,850âa bear market threshold 21% below the February highâif the 5,200 support fails.
OâHara highlighted a rare occurrence: the S&P 500 is on track for two consecutive 4% daily declines, a pattern seen during major dislocations like March 2020 and November 2008.
âHistorically, this scares the masses and often leads to one more leg lower before the bottom,â he noted.
Sentiment and Capitulation
OâHara believes the market is at a sentiment low but has yet to reach a price low signaling capitulation.
âWe just need to find that point where selling exhausts itself,â he added.
Meanwhile, Oppenheimerâs Ari Wald sees signs of capitulation nearing, pointing to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surging past 40 on Friday after closing at 30 on Thursdayâa level well above the 20 threshold indicating heightened fear.
âWeâre close, but not out of the woods,â Wald said, suggesting a bear market could persist into 2025 with additional volatility and lower lows ahead.
Near-Term Outlook and Resistance
Wald anticipates gains will be limited over the next quarter, capped by the S&P 500âs 200-day moving average of 5,760.42âover 13% above Fridayâs levels.
âThe damage is done, and itâll take time to recover,â he said.
Despite Fridayâs real-time price of 505.28 for the SPY (reflecting the S&P 500), the indexâs broader trajectory remains under pressure from tariff fallout, including Chinaâs swift retaliatory 34% levies on U.S. goods.
** Silver lining: If youâre Dollar Cost Averaging and donât need the money for years, these lower prices mean youâre buying more shares for the same amount of money.
đ Crypto
Bitcoin $78,348 (- 6.0%)
Ether $1,572 (-12.8%)
Solana $105 (-12.0%)
Total market cap $2.57T (-8.6%)
* Prices as of Apr 6th, 11:30 PM EST
Bitcoin Stands Strong Amid Trump, Fed, and Chaos
As stock markets crash and gold stalls, Bitcoin remains (sort of) high.
Unlike 2020âs panic, where markets tanked and risky assets bled, Bitcoin initially rose 4.5% to $84,700 while stocks fell 10.65% and gold dropped 4.8% from its $3,167 peak. The old âgold leads, Bitcoin followsâ tune played again, echoing 2019 when goldâs 15% climb preceded Bitcoinâs 170% leap.
However, on Sunday the tariff fears finally hit crypto and Bitcoin was down 6% to $78k, but only -4.3% over the past 7 days. Much better than equities.
For crypto investors, a 6% down day is just another day. Maybe itâs time to consider some Bitcoin.
MacroScope sees $100K as a signal of a new long-term shiftâBitcoin stepping out as a mainstay, not just an alternative.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said over the weekend that Bitcoin is becoming a store of value, like gold. Thatâs a huge statement especially considering that Bitcoin would be the 6th largest global corporation if it was a company and is the 5th largest global currency, just behind the Japanese Yen.
đ” Personal Finance
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đ° Be a Better Investor
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