Good morning investors! There was bloodbath this weekend with safe havens (silver and gold) falling and crypto also taking a beating.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
Another government shutdown?
Morgan Stanley's 2026 predictions
📊 Economy and News
What to Expect This Week
Here’s what you need to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, February 2
Data: ISM Manufacturing PMI (January)
Speakers: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
Key Earnings: Palantir (PLTR), Disney (DIS), Mizuho Financial (MFG)
Tuesday, February 3
Data: JOLTS Job Openings (December)
Key Earnings: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), PepsiCo (PEP)
Wednesday, February 4
Data: ADP Private Employment (January), ISM Services PMI (January)
Speakers: Fed Governor Lisa Cook
Key Earnings: Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL), Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), Novartis (NVS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Uber (UBER), Qualcomm (QCOM)
Thursday, February 5
Data: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Jan 31)
Key Earnings: Amazon (AMZN), Philip Morris (PM), Shell (SHEL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
Friday, February 6
Data: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate (January), Consumer Sentiment (February preliminary), Consumer Credit
Key Earnings: Toyota Motor (TM)
Additional notes
Alphabet and Amazon reports follow strong prior quarters; AMD and Qualcomm provide AI chip demand clues.
Disney streaming updates and pharma weight-loss drug momentum (Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk) remain focal points.
Labor data will influence Fed rate expectations after recent signs of hiring slowdown.
Global hits:
China January official manufacturing PMI drops to 49.3.
India budget seeks manufacturing pivot, but falls short of expectations.
China new home prices rise in January as government signals support.
Trump says India will buy oil from Venezuela.
Brief Partial Government Shutdown Begins Over Immigration Dispute
The U.S. government entered a partial shutdown after Congress missed a midnight funding deadline. The Senate passed a bipartisan spending package (71-29 vote) late Friday, funding most agencies (e.g., Pentagon, Labor) while separating Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding for a two-week extension. This allows time to negotiate immigration enforcement reforms amid Democratic concerns.
The House is expected to vote today, triggering the lapse. The shutdown is expected to be brief and limited in impact, unlike last fall's record 43-day closure that cost the economy ~$11 billion.
Reminder: OPEC+ agrees to keep oil output unchanged as Iran tensions boost prices.
📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,939.03 (-0.43%)
DJIA 48,892.47 (-1.36%)
NASDAQ 23,461.82 (-0.94%)
BRENT CRUDE 69.31 (-0.84%)
* Prices as of Feb 1st, 12:20 AM UTC
Morgan Stanley's 4 Key Themes and 10 Macro Predictions for 2026
Morgan Stanley identifies four dominant forces shaping the 2026 global macro environment: AI/Tech Diffusion, The Future of Energy, The Multipolar World, and Societal Shifts (an evolution of last year's Longevity theme). The firm stresses a thematic investing approach amid volatility and structural change.
Within these themes, Morgan Stanley offers 10 key predictions for 2026:
Two-speed AI world — U.S. frontier LLMs leap ahead in H1 2026; China lags initially but adoption optimism grows by H2 as benefits materialize.
Compute shortage — AI demand surges past supply, making large-scale infrastructure economically compelling.
Aggressive U.S. policy — Trump administration pushes harder than expected on critical minerals, domestic manufacturing, military innovation, and lowering consumer costs.
AI tech tensions — China pressures U.S. for greater AI access while accelerating self-sufficiency (“gross domestic intelligence”), widening national capability gaps and influencing trade.
Energy politics — Rising costs fuel backlash against data centers and spur support for low-cost/off-grid power.
AI-energy convergence — Major AI firms gain control over energy assets for reliable, cheap, AI-optimized power.
Manufacturing shift — China grows share in tech manufacturing; U.S. enjoys re-shoring boom as tech narrows low-cost labor advantage.
Latin America revival — Policy changes, geopolitics, and peak rates shift region toward investment-led (vs. consumption-led) growth.
Re-skilling surge — Governments and companies launch large-scale programs to counter AI-driven job disruption.
Transformative AI impact — By late 2026, early deflation in some sectors, higher capex, changing valuations, and premium on non-replicable assets.
The note highlights broad ripple effects from AI employment shifts, aging populations, consumer changes, longevity trends, and demographic challenges across industries and regions.
Interesting: Pharma giant AstraZeneca will list on the New York Stock Exchange today. Also, the company is investing $15 billions in China, while also partnering with a Chinese biotech to develop weight-loss drugs.
💵 Personal Finance
Spend Your Credit Card Points Now, Expert Advises – Even Without the 10% Interest Cap
President Trump's proposed temporary 10% cap on credit card interest rates could reduce issuers' revenue from interest, potentially leading to cuts in rewards programs—such as lower points earned, higher redemption costs, or fewer perks—to offset losses.
However, Nick Ewen, senior editorial director at The Points Guy, emphasizes that this isn't the main reason to redeem points immediately. "This is not a reason in and of itself to spend your points," he says. "Even before this was announced, you should be spending your points."
Key reasons to use points consistently:
Programs can change anytime — Issuers often alter redemption rules without much notice, and changes rarely improve point value. If you have a perk or transfer option you plan to use, redeem now to avoid devaluation risks.
Points don't earn interest — Unlike savings or investments, their purchasing power erodes with inflation (e.g., a $100 flight redemption stays $100 even if prices rise).
Ewen recommends redeeming points regularly rather than stockpiling them indefinitely. Keep some for emergencies or planned travel, but avoid hoarding large amounts (e.g., mid-to-upper five figures for infrequent travelers). Redeem for current needs like flights, especially if good deals are available.
The proposal's uncertainty makes predicting exact impacts on rewards difficult, but the advice to spend points holds regardless.
💰 Be a Better Investor
“I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy.”
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