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Good morning investors! Following the Fed's first rate cut of 2025 last week, markets hit record highs.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
TikTok deal
$100K H-1B Visa Fee
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🖐 Here’s an excerpt from our Pro issue this week where we called Apple a buy. We last covered the company in April when it was trading at $198 and was given a BUY rating, suggesting a jump once the trade battle settles. Now at $245, we think it is once again a BUY.
Check the PRO issue for more on why we think so, including potential risks and buy points.
📊 Economy and News
What to expect this week
Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, Sept. 22
Fed Speakers: Stephen Miran, John Williams, Beth Hammack, Tom Barkin, Alberto Musalem.
Tuesday, Sept. 23
Data: S&P Flash U.S. PMI (Sept).
Fed Speakers: Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Raphael Bostic.
Earnings: Micron (MU), AutoZone (AZO).
Wednesday, Sept. 24
Data: New Home Sales (Aug).
Fed Speaker: Mary Daly.
Earnings: Cintas (CTAS), Thor Industries (THO), KB Home (KBH).
Thursday, Sept. 25
Data: Q2 GDP (final rev), Existing Home Sales (Aug), Jobless Claims (week ending Sept. 20), Trade Balance (Aug), Retail/Wholesale Inventories (Aug), Durable-Goods Orders (Aug).
Fed Speakers: Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, John Williams, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee.
Earnings: Costco (COST), Accenture (ACN), Jabil (JBL), TD Synnex (SNX), CarMax (KMX).
Friday, Sept. 26
Data: PCE Price Index (Aug), Consumer Sentiment (Sept).
Fed Speakers: Michelle Bowman, Tom Barkin.
Global hits:
IMF sees Mexico growth improving mildly in 2026, urges debt cuts.
Italy wins Fitch rating upgrade on fiscal performance, political stability under Meloni.
India may emerge as second-largest economy by 2038 with $34.2 trillion GDP (PPP).
Reminder: The cost of staying warm at home is expected to jump an average of 7.6%, to $976 this season.
Apple takes control of all core chips in iPhone Air with new architecture to prioritize AI.
Lastly, Trump wields ‘golden share’ to halt U.S. Steel plant shutdown.
TikTok deal: President Donald Trump revealed that media mogul Rupert Murdoch, his son Lachlan (via Fox Corporation), Oracle's Larry Ellison, and Dell's Michael Dell are poised to join a U.S.-led investor group to rescue TikTok from a potential ban, crediting the app's role in his 2024 election win.
The deal ensures majority American ownership, a seven-seat board with six U.S. members, U.S. control of the algorithm, and Oracle handling data privacy for the platform's 170 million U.S. users.
This addresses national security concerns from 0.49, which Trump has repeatedly extended; while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed a framework last week, China emphasized fair negotiations and compliance with its laws, with final signing pending amid dueling readouts signaling minor gaps.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,664.36 (+0.49%)
DJIA 46,315.27 (+0.37%)
NASDAQ 22,631.48 (+0.72%)
BRENT CRUDE 66.63 (-1.13%)
* Prices as of Sep 22nd, 12:20 AM UTC
Trump's $100K H-1B Visa Fee Sparks Tech Panic and Policy Clash
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on September 20, 2025, imposing a one-time $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa petitions for skilled foreign workers, effective September 21.
The White House clarified it applies only to future applicants in the February 2026 lottery who are outside the US, exempting current holders, renewals, and re-entries.
Previously capped at 85,000 annually with ~$1,500 in fees, the program saw 359,000 applications for FY2026—a four-year low. Top beneficiaries include Amazon, Tata, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Google.
The move addresses "program abuse" and wage undercutting, per the White House, while prioritizing high-skilled, high-paid workers. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick initially floated annual payments for six years but walked it back. A separate "gold card" fast-tracks visas for £1M+ fees. Waivers are possible for national interest cases.
Tech giants scrambled: Amazon urged H-1B holders abroad to return before the deadline, warning against re-entry attempts; Microsoft, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs echoed travel cautions.
India's Nasscom decried "considerable uncertainty," noting 71% of last year's approvals went to Indians, 11.7% to Chinese. Immigration attorney Tahmina Watson called it a "nail in the coffin" for startups unable to afford it, as they struggle to fill roles domestically.
Paradoxically, skilled immigration hit a 20-year high in 2024 with 200,000 inflows—over 60% via student OPT programs—driving 10% of job gains and 25% of patent value, per Barclays. Indians and Chinese dominate H-1B; 65% work in tech/AI. Yet proposed OPT restrictions could choke this "engine of innovation" as native workforce growth stalls.
Fed Rate Cuts Ignite Housing Stocks Rally
US housing shares surged 15% this quarter, outpacing the S&P 500's 7% gain, as the Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts on Wednesday—its first since December—lowering the benchmark to 4-4.25% to bolster a weakening labor market. Investors anticipate further easing will drive down mortgage rates, reviving the sluggish housing sector amid August's near 2.5-year low in single-family homebuilding.
Standout performers include DR Horton (+30%), KB Home and Toll Brothers (+20% each), and retailers Lowe’s (+20%) and Home Depot (+13%). The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 6.39% last week—its lowest since early October 2024—and could hit 6% by year-end, per analysts. Yet mortgage yields track the 10-year Treasury (now ~4.13%), not Fed funds directly, tempering expectations.
Check this: Berkshire Hathaway has completely exited its extremely profitable equity investment in the Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD.
💵 Personal Finance
Maximizing Rewards Cards: 3 Key Mistakes to Avoid
Premium travel cards like American Express Platinum ($895 annual fee) and Chase Sapphire Reserve ($795) are pricier than ever, but credit expert Brian Kelly of The Points Guy warns against ditching fees entirely. "Cheaper is not better," he says—opt for modest-fee cards to unlock real value.
Here's how to sidestep common pitfalls.
1. Sticking to No-Fee Cards
Low- or no-fee options often skimp on rewards, like bonus points on dining or travel. For $95/year, you could get 2x points on key categories plus perks that outweigh the cost for most spenders. Tailor your card to your habits—groceries, gas, or trips—and reassess as life changes (e.g., kids or retirement).
2. Hoarding Points
A massive, unused points balance signals a mismatch. Switch cards if redemption feels clunky; premium ones aren't ideal if you're not cashing in. Avoid saving for a "big trip"—programs devalue points unpredictably. As analyst Ted Rossman notes, "You don’t want to be a points millionaire."
3. Skipping Negotiation
Unhappy with the fee? Don't downgrade quietly—call your issuer and threaten to cancel. The retention team often counters with fee waivers, bonus points, or discounts to keep you. Reassess yearly for ongoing wins.
By aligning cards with your spending and redeeming smartly, you'll extract far more value than the fee costs.
💰 Be a Better Investor
"It is an act of protest to overcome negative beliefs about money in order to save, pay off debt, invest, and find fulfilling work."
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.