Good morning investors! This short week is going to be exciting now that markets are again hitting new highs.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
That big bill
Stocks hit new highs
📊 Economy and News
What to expect this week
Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, June 30
Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (June): A key indicator of regional manufacturing activity.
Fed Speakers: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will provide insights on monetary policy.
Key Earnings: Progress Software (PRGS) reports earnings.
Tuesday, July 1
ISM Manufacturing (June): A national gauge of manufacturing activity.
Additional Data: S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI (June), Construction spending (May), Job openings (May)
Key Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ), MSC Industrial Direct (MSM), Greenbrier (GBX)
Wednesday, July 2
ADP Employment (June): A private-sector payrolls report that often sets the tone for the broader jobs report.
Tesla June Deliveries: Expected to provide a full picture of the first half of the year for Tesla’s car business.
Key Earnings: Unifirst (UNF), Franklin Covey (FC)
Thursday, July 3
U.S. Employment Report (June): The June jobs report is critical as the labor market remains resilient despite concerns of a hiring slowdown. Employers added more jobs than expected in May, though hiring slowed slightly from the prior month. Economists expect the labor market to slow as companies face uncertainty from tariffs, while a recent consumer survey showed heightened worries about the job market. Federal Reserve officials have pointed to strong job growth as a reason to hold interest rates steady, even as inflation has declined. Trump has pressured the Fed to cut rates, with some officials now open to the idea.
Additional Data: Initial jobless claims (Week ending June 28), U.S. trade deficit (May), S&P final U.S. services PMI (June), Factory orders (May), ISM services (June)
Market Hours: Stock and bond markets will close early for the Independence Day holiday.
Friday, July 4
Stock and bond markets will remain closed all day in observance of the Independence Day holiday.
Moreover, investors are eyeing Trump’s tariff policy ahead of a July 9 deadline to negotiate new deals with U.S. trading partners. On Friday, Trump announced that trade talks with Canada were over, though officials have indicated the tariff timeline could be delayed.
Global hits:
China’s housing pain could extend to 2027 without more stimulus.
Gas in the US expected to be cheapest since 2021.
US, China formalize deal on rare earth shipments in trade breakthrough.
Senate Advances Trump’s Controversial Spending Bill Amid Debate
The Senate’s version of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” cleared a key procedural vote on June 28, 2025, with a 51-49 margin, moving the 940-page spending package closer to passage.
The bill, which includes tax cuts, a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase, and Medicaid cuts, faces opposition from some Republicans and Democrats.
Key provisions extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, introduce temporary tax breaks for tips and overtime, and raise the SALT deduction cap to $40,000. However, the bill eliminates the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit and adds a coal subsidy, drawing criticism from several sectors. In fact, Elon Musk called it “utterly insane”.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune aims to pass the bill by July 4, but House approval remains uncertain due to narrow Republican majorities and internal disputes.
Controversial: Trump says he won’t appoint anyone to Fed who doesn’t back rate cuts. Also, he wants interest rate cut to 1%, would ’love’ if Powell resigned.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,173.07 (+0.52%)
DJIA 43,819.27 (+1.01%)
NASDAQ 20,273.46 (+0.52%)
BRENT CRUDE 67.22 (-0.81%)
* Prices as of Jun 30th, 12:20 AM UTC
S&P 500 Hits Record High, Bull Market Nears 1,000 Days
The S&P 500 reached a new record high on June 27, 2025, marking a 70% gain since the bull market began on October 12, 2022, now 989 days strong.
This run nearly ended in April, when the index fell 19.8% from its prior high, narrowly avoiding a bear market.
Analysts like Frank Gretz of Wellington Shields note the robust recovery, driven by broad market participation and strong performance from economically sensitive stocks like Parker-Hannifin.
Despite uncertainties around tariffs and Federal Reserve policies, optimism persists, with UBS suggesting improving growth and inflation could support stocks, potentially aided by Fed rate cuts. However, high valuations, at 23.3 times earnings, and upcoming tariff deadlines on July 9 raise concerns.
The market enters July, historically a strong month, with the S&P 500 up over 4% year-to-date, alongside solid Nasdaq and Dow gains. Key economic data, including June’s nonfarm payrolls, expected at 115,000, will shape the outlook.
Exciting: Tesla says it notched a historic first, making a driverless delivery of a new car to a customer on Friday in Austin, Texas.
Chinese search giant Baidu has said it will make its Ernie generative AI large language model open source today, a threat to OpenAI, Anthropic and its own Chinese rival DeepSeek.
Good to know: Insiders at Nvidia have dumped more than $1 billion in stock over the last year with about half of those occurring during the last month as the market notched new highs and shook off geopolitical tensions.
💵 Personal Finance
How Credit Impacts Mental Health
High credit card balances or loan debt can lead to constant worry about repayments, especially when finances are tight.
According to a study, financial strain, including credit-related debt, is linked to higher rates of anxiety and depression. The pressure to meet minimum payments or avoid default can disrupt sleep, lower self-esteem, and strain relationships, as individuals may feel trapped or ashamed of their financial situation.
Poor credit scores can exacerbate these issues, limiting access to better loan terms or housing, which heightens feelings of helplessness. Conversely, managing credit responsibly—paying bills on time and keeping balances low—can foster a sense of control and reduce stress. However, unexpected events like job loss or medical emergencies can quickly derail even well-managed credit, triggering mental health challenges.
To mitigate these effects, experts recommend budgeting, seeking financial counseling, and prioritizing small, consistent payments to reduce debt. Building an emergency fund and practicing mindfulness can also help manage stress, breaking the cycle of credit-related mental health struggles.
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.