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Good morning investors! The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, both lower than expected. This sent stocks higher with the S&P 500 touching 6,800 for first time ever.
Today we cover:
More trade deals
China to face higher tariffs
What to expect this week
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📊 Economy and News
Trump Strikes Deals on Trade, Critical Minerals in Southeast Asia
U.S. President Donald Trump, attending the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, signed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam to address trade imbalances and reduce tariff barriers
Trade Agreements: The U.S. will maintain a 19% tariff rate on exports from Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand, with some goods reduced to zero. Vietnam, with a $123 billion trade surplus with the U.S., committed to increasing purchases of U.S. products. The agreements also cover digital trade, services, investments, labor rights, and environmental protections.
Critical Minerals: Amid China’s tightened export controls on rare earths, Trump signed deals with Thailand and Malaysia to diversify critical mineral supply chains, vital for semiconductors, electric vehicles, and military equipment. Malaysia, with significant rare earth deposits, agreed not to ban or impose quotas on exports to the U.S., though it’s unclear if this applies to raw or processed minerals. Malaysia has banned raw rare earth exports to develop its downstream sector.
Regional Commitments: The deals include Thailand eliminating tariffs on 99% of goods, relaxing U.S. investment restrictions in telecom, and committing to buy $18.8 billion in U.S. aircraft and $5.4 billion in energy goods annually. Malaysia secured tariff exemptions for aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and commodities like palm oil. Thailand and Malaysia also agreed to accept U.S. vehicle safety and emissions standards.
Ceasefire Agreement: Trump oversaw a Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire deal following earlier border clashes, signed during the ASEAN summit.
U.S. and China Agree on Trade Framework
A fragile truce, initiated in May and extended in August, faces challenges as both nations have imposed sanctions and export curbs.
Trade Talks: U.S. and Chinese officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, agreed on a trade framework during ASEAN summit sidelines, ahead of a Trump-Xi meeting on October 30 in South Korea.
Key Issues: The framework aims to defer China’s rare earth export controls and avoid Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Global hits:
US food banks brace for surge as shutdown threatens benefits.
Indian economy to grow 6.6% in 2025 despite US tariffs, projects IMF; warns of global ‘uncertainty’.
Brexit has inflicted deeper damage on the country’s economy than previously estimated
Trump Imposes 10% Tariff Hike on Canada Amid Trade Dispute
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on Canadian goods in response to an Ontario ad criticizing tariffs, aired during the World Series.
The ad, featuring Ronald Reagan’s remarks on trade wars, prompted Trump to end trade talks with Canada. Most Canadian exports are exempt under the USMCA, but recent 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum have impacted Canada’s economy.
Ontario paused the ad campaign to resume trade talks, but Trump remains frustrated, with no plans to meet Canadian PM Mark Carney at an upcoming summit.
Surprising: One in three Manhattan condo owners lost money when they sold in the last year
Also, check this great CNN article on how this shutdown is affecting the economy and businesses.
Items That Got More Expensive in September (CPI Report)
Grocery Store
Beef and veal: +1.2% monthly; +14.7% yearly (uncooked roasts +4.8%).
Lunchmeats: +4.2% monthly (record high).
Fresh sweetrolls, coffeecakes, doughnuts: +5.7% monthly (highest in 26+ years).
Bananas: +6.9% yearly.
Canned fruits/vegetables: +5% yearly.
Sugar and sweets: +6.7% yearly.
Coffee: -0.1% monthly but +18.9% yearly (instant +21.7%).
Services
At-home elderly/disability care: +7% monthly (record); +11.6% yearly.
Sporting event admission: +3.7% monthly.
Airline fares: +2.7% monthly; +3.2% yearly.
Goods (Tariff Impact)
Watches: +3.2% monthly; +6.6% yearly.
Boys’ apparel: +2.6% monthly.
Other furniture: +1.9% monthly.
Appliances: +0.8% monthly; +1.3% yearly.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,791.69 (+0.79%)
DJIA 47,207.12 (+1.01%)
NASDAQ 23,204.87 (+1.15%)
BRENT CRUDE 65.33 (-0.01%)
* Prices as of Oct 26th, 12:20 AM UTC
What to expect this week
Here’s everything you need to keep an eye on:
Monday, October 27
Economic Data: Shutdown delays durable-goods orders (September).
Key Earnings: Welltower (WELL), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Waste Management (WM), Hartford Insurance Group (HIG).
Tuesday, October 28
Economic Data: Consumer confidence (October), S&P Case-Shiller home price index (August).
Key Earnings: Visa (V), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Novartis (NVS), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Royal Caribbean (RCL).
Wednesday, October 29
Federal Reserve: FOMC rate decision, expected quarter-point cut to 3.75%-4%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks.
Economic Data: Pending home sales (September); shutdown delays trade balance, retail, and wholesale inventories.
Key Earnings: Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta (META), Caterpillar (CAT), ServiceNow (NOW), Verizon (VZ), Boeing (BA), CVS (CVS), Starbucks (SBUX), Carvana (CVNA).
Thursday, October 30
Economic Data: Shutdown delays initial jobless claims and Q3 GDP.
Key Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Merck (MRK), Shell (SHEL), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Comcast (CMCSA).
Friday, October 31
Economic Data: Chicago PMI (October); shutdown delays PCE index and employment cost index.
Key Earnings: Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL).
Check this: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire is lagging the S&P 500 by the largest gap so far this year.
A South Dakota company is recalling more than 2.2 million pounds (998,000 kilograms) of Korean barbecue pork jerky sold at Costco and Sam’s Club stores because the product may be contaminated with pieces of metal.
GM lays off more than 200 salaried workers in latest round of job.
Look here: Retail executives expect a cautious holiday shopping season with consumers hunting deals due to tariff pressures and budget constraints. Retailers like Kohl’s and Academy Sports are launching earlier holiday campaigns and adjusting discounts to capture early and frequent shoppers, who are trading down to private brands for better value. Despite tariff uncertainties, inventory levels are normal, and while lower-income consumers feel strained, retailers remain cautiously optimistic, anticipating strong spending during key holiday moments.
💵 Personal Finance
The 5 Most Common Jobs in America’s Largest Cities—and Their Salaries
Health and personal care aides are the most common job in the U.S., with nearly 4 million workers earning a median annual salary of $34,000. Other prevalent jobs include retail salespeople, registered nurses, customer service representatives, and fast food workers, with variations by city.
Interested in more details? Check below:
New York
Home health and personal care aides: $37,990 (605,590 employed)
Retail salespersons: $37,350 (212,470 employed)
Registered nurses: $113,490 (195,470 employed)
General and operations managers: $149,260 (187,400 employed)
Janitors and cleaners: $40,350 (177,960 employed)
Los Angeles
Home health and personal care aides: $34,600 (350,610 employed)
Fast food and counter workers: $36,480 (153,840 employed)
Manual freight and stock movers: $39,200 (128,800 employed)
Retail salespersons: $36,580 (122,120 employed)
Cashiers: $36,120 (114,090 employed)
Chicago
Manual freight and stock movers: $40,030 (146,710 employed)
General and operations managers: $105,310 (121,110 employed)
Fast food and counter workers: $33,020 (104,270 employed)
Retail salespersons: $34,910 (102,320 employed)
Registered nurses: $96,480 (100,620 employed)
Houston
General and operations managers: $108,090 (105,830 employed)
Fast food and counter workers: $26,960 (89,540 employed)
Retail salespersons: $30,260 (75,920 employed)
Registered nurses: $97,810 (65,300 employed)
Customer service representatives: $39,310 (64,180 employed)
Phoenix
General and operations managers: $94,130 (73,000 employed)
Customer service representatives: $44,400 (69,410 employed)
Retail salespersons: $35,550 (64,030 employed)
Fast food and counter workers: $33,870 (62,150 employed)
Manual freight and stock movers: $39,630 (57,320 employed)
The landscape is fast changing due to AI but these jobs still continue to rule the market.
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