Good morning investors! New week brings new excitement.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
New tariffs
What to expect in October
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📊 Economy and News
What to expect this week
Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, September 29
Data: Pending home sales (August)
Fed Speakers: Beth Hammack, John Williams, Alberto Musalem, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller
Earnings: Carnival (CCL), Jefferies Financial (JEF), Vail Resorts (MTN)
Key Event: Investors monitor government shutdown talks as deadline looms Tuesday night.
Tuesday, September 30
Data: Job openings (August), Consumer confidence (September), S&P Case-Shiller home price index (July), Chicago PMI (September)
Fed Speakers: Austan Goolsbee, Philip Jefferson
Earnings: Nike (NKE), Paychex (PAYX), Lamb Weston (LW)
Key Event: U.S. federal government funding deadline.
Wednesday, October 1
Data: ADP employment report (September), Construction spending (August), S&P manufacturing PMI (September), ISM manufacturing PMI (September)
Earnings: RPM International (RPM), Acuity (AYI), Conagra (CAG), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)
Thursday, October 2
Data: Initial jobless claims (Week ending Sept. 27), Factory orders (August)
Earnings: AngioDynamics (ANGO)
Key Event: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 deliveries expected, potential boost from EV tax credit rush.
Friday, October 3
Data: U.S. employment report (September), S&P services PMI (September), ISM services PMI (September)
Fed Speaker: Philip Jefferson
Key Focus: Jobs report to reveal labor market health after Fed’s rate cut amid rising unemployment concerns.
Global hits:
Republicans urge Democrats to agree to short-term bill to keep US government open. Elsewhere, Trump threatened mass firings of federal workers if government shutdown isn’t averted,.
Americans are souring on the economy again to levels seen rarely in the post-World War II era.
India-EFTA agreement set to be launched on October 1 after long wait.
Global Data Center Spending to Exceed $500 Billion in 2025
Global data center spending is projected to surpass $500 billion in 2025, up from $400 billion in 2024. The sector is expected to grow at a 23% annual rate through 2028, reaching over $900 billion.
Server purchases, particularly AI servers, account for $280 billion in 2024. AI-optimized data centers cost $52 million per megawatt to build, compared to $39 million for traditional ones. Data centers consume 1-2% of global electricity, with AI workloads growing at over 40% annually.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,643.70 (+0.59%)
DJIA 46,247.29 (+0.65%)
NASDAQ 22,484.07 (+0.44%)
BRENT CRUDE 70.13 (+1.04%)
* Prices as of sep 28th, 12:20 AM UTC
New Tariffs on Drugs, Trucks, and Furniture
U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs, including 100% duties on patented drugs, 25% on heavy-duty trucks, 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and 30% on upholstered furniture, effective next week.
Aimed at boosting U.S. manufacturing and national security, these tariffs follow earlier duties of up to 50% on trading partners.
The EU and Japan are exempt from the 100% drug tariff due to trade deals capping pharmaceutical duties at 15%, but Britain faces the full tariff as its trade deal lacks specific pharmaceutical protections.
The tariffs, enacted under Section 232, have raised concerns about rising consumer prices and global growth. U.S. and European pharmaceutical stocks remained stable, but German truck makers saw declines. Drugmakers with U.S. manufacturing investments are exempt from the drug tariff.
Good to know: Boeing is once again allowed to certify 737 Max and 787 Dreamliners as safe to fly on behalf of the FAA. Also, Americans have more money in stocks than ever before.
💵 Personal Finance
Will October Bring Stock Market Jitters in 2025?
Despite a shaky market setup, the S&P 500’s strong September performance, with over 2% gains compared to a typical 4.2% pullback, suggests potential for further upside in October, according to Jeffrey Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
Despite recent losses and concerns about high valuations and AI sustainability, Hirsch dismisses fears of “Octoberphobia,” citing historical crashes in 1929 and 1987 as unlikely to repeat.
He notes that post-election years, like 2025, typically see a 1.3% S&P 500 gain in October, outperforming the 0.9% average since 1950. Hirsch predicts a strong Q4 rally, targeting a 7,100 S&P 500 level, driven by AI, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, and government spending.
The index has already climbed over 12% in 2025, continuing to defy concerns.
On the other hand, The “Buffett Indicator,” which compares the total value of U.S. stocks (Wilshire 5000) to the nation’s gross national product, has surged to a record 217%, surpassing its Dotcom Bubble peak and signaling potential overvaluation.
The Buffett Indicator’s extreme level, coupled with Warren Buffett’s recent cash hoarding and net selling of equities at Berkshire Hathaway, raises caution about market exuberance, despite arguments that the indicator may be less relevant in a tech-driven economy.
what you expect in October?
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.