Morning Download from Invincible Money 

Personal finance + economics + markets

5 minutes a day for better money decisions.

Good morning and welcome to the 947 new subscribers! 

…and we’re back after a little 4th of July break.

Today we cover:

• A quick read on the economy with the “Misery Index”

• Dig into some news in the EV (electronic vehicle) industry around the world

• An update on the Bitcoin spot ETF filings

• Plus, what 2 ways to value a stock: the right way and technical analysis 😬

📊 Economy 

“Misery index” is back to 2021 levels

The “Misery Index” is unemployment + inflation. As inflation has come down from a high of 9%+ and unemployment remains low, the index is coming down.

However, real wages have been negative for 26 straight months. Real wages are wages taking into account inflation. Meaning, most people have been making less in the last 2 years, unless they got a raise to keep up with inflation.

Our take: Economic news these days is always mixed. Many things going well, but lots of red warning flags.

📰 News

Auto makers get into lithium mining

The demand for electric vehicles is increasing, but the supply of lithium, a key component in the batteries that power these vehicles, is not keeping up.

This has led automakers, like GM and Ford, to invest in lithium mining projects in order to secure their supply of the metal. The move into mining is a risky one for automakers, as the mining industry is volatile and there is no guarantee that they will be able to extract lithium profitably. However, the move is necessary if automakers want to remain competitive in the electric vehicle market.

Some facts on EVs and lithium to consider:

• In Q1 EV sales rose 45% over last year.

• General motors plans all its cars to be electric by 2035. Other automakers have similar goals.

• Some analysts say the supply of lithium could surge due to dozens of companies developing mines, causing the price to crash.

• Lithium is abundant in countries like Bolivia, Chile, Argentine, Canada and the United States but its difficult to extract.

Quick hits:

🧹 Chamath Palihapitiya had an interesting idea on how to wipe out all student debt: get an estate tax exemption if you donate to a fund to pay down the debt.

🏛️ U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is headed to China this week to discuss financial issues and try to improve relations.

🏆 Goldman Sachs wants out of its partnership with Apple on their High Yield Savings account, trying to sell their stake to American Express. Goldman’s foray into consumer lending was short lived.

👩🏽‍⚖️ A U.S. judged ruled the government can no longer ask for user information from tech companies or ask them to censor you. The judge even named names.

🙂📘 Facebook’s Twitter clone, called Threads, goes live tomorrow. Some say it’s a privacy nightmare, collected all sorts of info on you (as can be expected).

📈 Stocks

S&P 500 4,455.59 (+0.12%)
DJIA 34,418.47 (+0.035)
NASDAQ 13,816.77 (+0.21%)
VIX 13.57 (-0.15%)

Tesla delivers!

Tesla [TSLA -0.34%] lowed the prices on their cars a couple of months ago and it paid off. In Q2 they made 479,700 vehicles and delivered 466,140 of them, which is a record for quarterly deliveries and the 5th straight quarter the produced more than they delivered.

They company will post financial results for Q2 on July 19th. (Tesla)

Also, in EV news: 

Chinese EV giant is launching an electric SUV to compete with Tesla’s Model Y, but slightly less expensive. It already has 20,000 pre-orders and will begin deliver in 2 weeks.

Rivian [RIVN +17.41%] stock was up after beating expectations on Q2 deliveries with 12,640 vehicles vs 11,000 expected. That’s up 59% over Q1.

However, Tesla’s vision of self driving taxis is still being debated…

The San Francisco fire chief has warned against "unleashing" self-driving taxis in the city, citing multiple recent incidents of the vehicles obstructing fire engines and blocking roads during emergencies.

• The fire chief's concerns have been echoed by some city officials, who have called for a moratorium on the deployment of self-driving taxis until the technology is more mature.

• However, other officials have said that self-driving taxis could have a number of benefits for the city, including reducing traffic congestion and improving air quality.

The debate over self-driving taxis is likely to continue in San Francisco and other cities as the technology continues to develop.

📚 What I’m reading

An A.I. newsletter that puts the news in context called The Deep View.

For entrepreneurs, The Sweaty Startup newsletter

Plus, this video from Ali Abdaal on what he learned from his business coach.

🔐 Crypto

Bitcoin $30,842.85 (-1.0%)
Ethereum $1,938.11 (-1.0%)
Total market cap $1.25 (-1.0%)
* Prices as of July 5th, 12:20 AM EST

Bitcoin ETF status

After the SEC said BlackRock’s (and others) Bitcoin ETF filing was inadequate, crypto Twitter lost their minds. However, it seems they were just asked to name the "crypto exchange" and give more details on SSA [surveillance-sharing agreement].

BlackRock refiled with the info requested a few days ago so the race is still on.

💵 Personal Finance

2 ways to analyze investments

If you’re in crypto, you’ve undoubtedly been exposed to technical analysis or “chart reading.” Fans of Warren Buffett and the value investing school are more familiar with “fundamental analysis.”

What are they?

• Technical analysis uses charts and patterns to identify trends and predict future price movements. Some common technical indicators include moving averages, support and resistance levels, and Fibonacci retracements.

• Fundamental analysis looks at factors such as a company's financial performance, management team, and competitive landscape to assess its intrinsic value. Some common fundamental indicators include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, and debt-to-equity ratio.

It is important to note that neither technical analysis nor fundamental analysis is a guarantee of success. Both approaches have their own limitations, and the best way to use them is to combine them with other factors, such as your own research and experience.

💰 Be a Better Investor

This quote by Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis in the long term. In the short term, the stock market can be volatile and driven by emotions.

However, over the long term, the market tends to reflect the underlying value of businesses. Therefore, by focusing on fundamental analysis, investors can identify undervalued businesses that are likely to outperform in the long run.

👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.