Good morning investors! This week the focus will be on major earnings.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
2025 holiday forecast
What traders think of the banking selloff
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Important: Did you know that gold is likely to go down based on historical figures? Check this week’s PRO issue for more before you invest in the shiny matter. Moreover, this week’s issue focuses on Broadcom. Furthermore, we talk about names that are likely to go up after earnings. In the end, as a bonus, you receive a secret call spread trade to benefit from falling yields.
📊 Economy and News
What to Expect in Markets This Week
Here’s what to keep an eye on this week:
Monday, Oct. 20
Data: U.S. leading economic indicators (September)
Focus: Investors monitor trade policy updates ahead of Trump-Xi Jinping meeting.
Tuesday, Oct. 21
Events: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at payments conference.
Earnings: Netflix, Coca-Cola, General Motors, Lockheed Martin, 3M, others.
Focus: Consumer spending insights from Coca-Cola, GM’s EV strategy.
Wednesday, Oct. 22
Earnings: Tesla, IBM, AT&T, SAP, others.
Focus: Tesla’s earnings, potential updates on robotaxi, AI, and self-driving tech.
Thursday, Oct. 23
Data: Existing home sales (September), delayed jobless claims.
Events: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman testifies at Senate hearing.
Earnings: Intel, Ford, Newmont, T-Mobile, others.
Focus: Intel’s AI partnerships, gold prices with Newmont’s report.
Friday, Oct. 24
Data: CPI inflation (September), S&P flash PMI, consumer sentiment (October).
Earnings: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, Sanofi.
Focus: CPI data may sway Fed’s interest rate decision; HCA offers hospital sector insights.
Late CPI data and major earnings will shape the market this week.
Global hits:
US to furlough workers at nuclear weapons agency due shutdown as Trump administration freezes $11 billion more in infrastructure spending in shutdown fight.
Japan urges vigilance against excessive FX volatility.
India’s retail inflation likely to ease further in October.
Wells Fargo's 2025 Holiday Sales Forecast
Wells Fargo predicts U.S. holiday sales for November and December 2025 will grow by 3.5% to 4%, slightly below the historical average. Retail spending, excluding autos, gas, and dining, has risen nearly 3% through August, driven by nonstore retailers, health, and personal care sectors.
Gift cards are expected to gain popularity, potentially boosting early 2026 sales. Despite challenges, retail therapy and financing options like credit cards and buy-now, pay-later services may sustain holiday spending.
Wells Fargo notes the forecast may be adjusted post-September data, delayed by the federal government shutdown.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,664.01 (+0.53%)
DJIA 46,190.61 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ 22,679.98 (+0.52%)
BRENT CRUDE 61.29 (+0.23%)
* Prices as of Oct 20th, 12:20 AM UTC
Banking Sell-Off: Traders See Isolated Loan Issues, Not Systemic Crisis
Last week's broad market decline stemmed from fears over loan quality at regional banks and Jefferies, tied to bankruptcies like auto parts firm First Brands and lender TriColor. Stock futures dipped sharply early Friday but rebounded after analyst upgrades.
Key Upgrades and Rebound
Jefferies (JEF): Oppenheimer upgraded to outperform; analyst Chris Kotowski cites "very limited" exposure to First Brands. Shares fell 10.6% Thursday but rose premarket.
Zions Bancorp (ZION): Baird upgraded to outperform, calling the 13% drop "overdone." Also up premarket.
Financial sector broadly higher, with traders viewing issues as idiosyncratic.
Expert Views: No Repeat of 2023 SVB Crisis
Adam Crisafulli (Vital Knowledge): "We don’t think there are systemic credit problems... most of what we’re seeing so far is a function of a few specific situations," while overall credit quality exceeds expectations.
Ben Emons (FedWatch Advisors): Current losses are "relatively ‘known’" unlike the surprises that triggered Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic collapses.
Moody’s: Banking system and private credit markets remain sound.
JPMorgan Traders: Quick sell-offs reflect sector history—investors "sell first and ask questions later" amid credit fears, untested by recession in over a decade. Exposures seen as "well-contained" with limited impact.
This dip isn't seen as a major buying opportunity yet, per Crisafulli, but lacks the contagion risks of past crises.
Interesting: Boeing can hike 737 MAX production to 42 planes per month.
The Trump administration has agreed to forgive student debt under income-driven repayment programs it had partially blocked.
Controversial: Women are dropping out of the US labor force at some of the highest levels in history.
An estimated 455,000 women left the workforce between January and August this year, a period when the overall labor force has held relatively steady.
Only the pandemic saw a larger exodus for that period.
Economists are sounding the alarm: The losses, if continued, not only stand to erase the historic gains made by women in recent years but also risk stifling US economic growth.
In the years leading up to the pandemic, the labor force participation rate for prime working-aged women (25-54 years old) rose faster than that of their male counterparts.
Then came the pandemic, which put 21.9 million people out of work, 55% of whom were female. The participation rate for prime working-aged women plunged by more than 3 percentage points to 73.5% in just one month.
But as the economy recovered in the following months, the rebound was sluggish for women — so much so that the period was dubbed a “she-cession” as female workers suffered higher rates of unemployment and worse employment outcomes than men.
Women’s prime-age participation rate hit an all-time high last year of 78.4%. However, in recent months, participation has been hovering at around 77.7%.
Do you agree that women are disappearing from the U.S. workforce?
💵 Personal Finance
Medicare open enrollment began Oct. 15, 2025, amidst a federal government shutdown. Beneficiaries can adjust their health coverage until Dec. 7, effective Jan. 1, 2026. Despite the shutdown, updates related to enrollment continue, per the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Expert Advice
Philip Moeller, author of Get What’s Yours for Medicare, recommends delaying final coverage decisions until the government reopens due to potential delays in accessing information via 1-800-Medicare or Medicare’s Plan Finder.
Juliette Cubanski, deputy director of KFF’s Medicare policy program, emphasizes reviewing plans annually, as coverage for doctors and medications can change, impacting costs. In 2022, out-of-pocket health spending averaged 39% of Social Security income per beneficiary.
Coverage Options
Original Medicare: Includes Part A (hospital) and Part B (medical). No out-of-pocket cap, which may increase costs for frequent medical needs.
Medicare Advantage: Private plans with additional benefits (e.g., dental, vision) but often with provider network limits and prior authorization requirements.
Medicare Part D: Prescription drug coverage for original Medicare holders. Zero-premium plans are increasing, but deductibles and co-pays may rise.
Prescription Drug Costs
The 2026 out-of-pocket maximum for Part D drugs is $2,100, up from $2,000 in 2025. Only covered prescriptions count toward this cap. Moeller advises ensuring all medications are covered by a plan, as some areas see fewer Part D options despite more zero-premium plans.
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
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