Good morning investors! The market remains worried due to increasing tensions.
Today we cover:
What to expect this week
US-China tensions
Best month to invest
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📊 Economy and News
What to expect this week
After Friday’s market selloff due to President Trump’s 100% tariff hike on Chinese goods in response to China’s rare earth export curbs, investors await further trade policy updates.
The ongoing federal government shutdown, now in its third week, may delay key economic data releases, but corporate earnings from major banks and semiconductor firms are set to dominate.
Here’s what to keep an eye on:
Monday, October 13
Market Activity: Bond markets and banks closed for Columbus Day; stock markets open.
Federal Reserve: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speaks.
Events: Oracle’s AI World conference begins.
Key Earnings: Fastenal (FAST).
Tuesday, October 14
Data Releases: NFIB small business optimism index (September).
Federal Reserve: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Governor Christopher Waller, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins speak.
Events: Salesforce’s Dreamforce conference begins.
Key Earnings: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Ericsson (ERIC), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)
Wednesday, October 15
Data Releases: Federal Reserve Beige Book; Empire State manufacturing survey (October).
Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Stephen Miran, Governor Christopher Waller, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speak.
Key Earnings: ASML (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis (PLD), PNC Financial (PNC), United Airlines (UAL).
Other: Medicare open enrollment begins.
Thursday, October 16
Data Releases: Homebuilder confidence (October); possible delays in U.S. retail sales (September), Producer Price Index (PPI), initial jobless claims, and business inventories due to shutdown.
Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Stephen Miran, Governor Christopher Waller, Governor Michael Barr, and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speak.
Other Data: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (October).
Key Earnings: TSMC (TSM), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
Friday, October 17
Data Releases: Industrial production & capacity utilization (September); possible delays in housing starts, building permits, and import price index due to shutdown.
Key Earnings: American Express (AXP), Truist Financial (TFC)
Note: The government shutdown may delay key economic reports, including retail sales, housing starts, and jobless claims. The Consumer Price Index for September is rescheduled for October 24.
Global hits:
US Education Department to lay off employees.
US military will use R&D money to pay troops if shutdown persists.
France’s Macron reappoints former prime minister Lecornu as PM.
Government shutdown continues and tariffs make stocks cheaper… which is also an opportunity for investors. Check this week’s PRO issue for names that are likely to benefit from this shut down.
Worth checking: BlackRock is seeing a shift among Big Tech investors.
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📈 Stocks
S&P 500 6,552.51 (-2.71%)
DJIA 45,479.60 (-1.90%)
NASDAQ 22,204.43 (-3.56%)
BRENT CRUDE 62.73 (-3.82%)
* Prices as of Oct 12th, 12:20 AM UTC
US-China Trade War Escalates Over Rare Earths and Tariffs
Tensions between the US and China have reignited, disrupting a recent trade truce. On October 10, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a new 100% tariff on Chinese goods, effective November 1, in response to China’s tightened export controls on rare earth minerals, critical for electronics, EVs, and military hardware.
China, which dominates 61% of global rare earth production and 92% of processing, accused the US of “double standards” and vowed countermeasures.
The escalation, following China’s new restrictions on five rare earth elements and related technologies, led to a $18.28 billion crypto sell-off and a sharp market drop, with the Dow falling 878 points, said to be worth $2 trillion. Nvidia, Amazon and Tesla all fell by about 5% on Friday, pushing the Nasdaq down 3.6%, its worst day since April with big tech losing about $770 billion.
Trump also threatened to cancel a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit. Both nations’ retaliatory measures, including port fees, signal a deepening trade war, with significant implications for global supply chains and economic stability.
Check this: Qantas says customer data released by cyber criminals months after cyber breach.
It’s time to sell frothy speculative stocks with little earnings, Jim Cramer says.
💵 Personal Finance
Best Month to Invest
Determining the best month to invest depends on market trends, economic conditions, and personal financial goals. Historically, no single month guarantees superior returns due to the stock market's volatility and unpredictability. However, some studies suggest seasonal patterns, like the "January Effect," where stocks, particularly small-cap stocks, may perform better in January due to tax-related selling in December and renewed buying. Data from the S&P 500 (1950-2023) shows January averaging a 1.2% return, slightly higher than other months.
November and December also tend to show strong performance, often attributed to holiday spending and portfolio rebalancing. For instance, the S&P 500 has historically risen 1.5% on average in November. Conversely, September is often the weakest, averaging a -0.5% return, possibly due to profit-taking before year-end.
Rather than timing the market, consistent investing—through dollar-cost averaging—reduces risk and mitigates the impact of picking the "wrong" month. Economic indicators, like interest rates or corporate earnings, and global events can outweigh seasonal trends. For 2025, monitor Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments, as these could influence market conditions more than historical monthly patterns.
Ultimately, the best month varies by investor strategy, risk tolerance, and market context. Consult a financial advisor and diversify investments to align with long-term objectives, regardless of the calendar.
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👩🏽⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.
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